Turkish Hazelnuts Firm Up as New-Crop Weather and Policy Risks Loom

Turkish hazelnut kernel prices in EUR are stabilising to slightly firmer, with natural grades in Istanbul edging up around 3–4% week-on-week while roasted derivatives are broadly steady. Tight nearby offers, lingering concerns about Black Sea crop weather and policy uncertainty around Turkish state support are underpinning values, despite softer confectionery margins in Europe. The market is transitioning from a post-harvest surplus phase into a more balanced stance as remaining 2025/26 stocks are being drawn down and buyers start to position for the 2026/27 campaign. Recent Turkish macro moves on agricultural support and high processing costs keep a solid floor under export offers, while global confectionery demand remains resilient enough to absorb current price levels. In this context, Istanbul FOB prices show modest upward momentum rather than a new rally, with organic kernels priced at a substantial premium and likely to remain a niche, supply‑constrained segment.

Prices

As of 22 June 2026, benchmark Turkish hazelnut kernel prices (FOB, Istanbul/İzmir, converted into EUR) show a modest firming versus mid-June, especially for natural kernels 11–13mm and 13–15mm. Roasted diced prices are flat, while roasted meal has ticked slightly higher, narrowing the spread to natural kernels.

The organic segment is quoted roughly 2.3–2.6x above conventional, reflecting limited certified supply and higher compliance and processing costs highlighted for the Turkish industry in recent corporate market updates. Georgian kernels ex-Poland remain at a visible premium to Turkish origin, but their prices were last updated more than a week ago and are less indicative for the very short term.

Supply & Demand

Turkey remains by far the dominant global hazelnut supplier, accounting for roughly half of world production and exports. Latest international industry statistics for 2025/26 point to a smaller Turkish crop (~518,000 tonnes in-shell) versus the previous season, with global supply also tightening modestly. This underpins current export offer levels despite selective demand rationing.

European confectionery demand, the main outlet for Turkish kernels, is mixed. Trade data show that EU imports of cocoa and chocolate products from Turkey were still growing into mid‑2026, indicating that manufacturers continue to source intensively from Turkish processors even as cocoa market volatility affects chocolate margins. At the same time, industry commentary notes that Turkish processing costs rose by around 27% from early 2026, while domestic inflation remains elevated, limiting downside room for export prices even if spot demand softens.

On the consumer side, there is anecdotal evidence of hazelnut tightness in North American retail channels, with shortages linked to earlier weather problems in Turkey and firm global demand. While isolated, such reports suggest that pipeline stocks outside Europe are not overly burdensome, reinforcing the current balanced-to-tight tone in kernel markets.

Weather & Policy Context (TR)

Recent multi‑country weather bulletins describe north‑western Turkey and parts of the Black Sea region as experiencing warmer-than-normal conditions in June, but without extreme heat or prolonged drought. For hazelnuts, which are in the nut‑filling/premature stage in late June, this pattern is broadly neutral to slightly supportive provided that intermittent rainfall persists.

Longer-term climate research for Turkey’s Black Sea coast warns that rising temperatures and shifting rainfall in summer months may increase weather-related yield variability over time, with some sub‑regions facing increased drought risk and others heavier precipitation. In the immediate 3–4 week horizon, however, there is no fresh evidence of a major weather shock to the 2026 crop, so the current price firmness is more about structural costs and stocks than about acute yield loss.

On the policy side, Turkey’s agriculture ministry recently signalled that 2026 farm support schemes will be recalculated to reflect higher fuel and fertiliser costs. While this statement was not hazelnut-specific, it reinforces expectations that the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) will maintain relatively protective intervention levels in nuts as well, sustaining growers’ margins and indirectly supporting kernel export prices.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Stocks and crop size: Industry data show 2025/26 Turkish ending stocks near 150,000 tonnes in‑shell equivalent, down from a much more comfortable cushion the previous season. This constrains the market’s ability to absorb any negative 2026/27 crop surprise.
• Costs and margins: Turkish processors report processing cost inflation of at least 27% year-on-year as of early 2026, driven by energy, labour and financing. Combined with still-elevated national inflation, this raises the export price floor.
• Downstream demand: Despite some pressure on chocolate consumption in Europe, the broader confectionery sector continues to expand, and major brands are investing in capacity, including large-scale Nutella production in the US. This supports steady structural demand for hazelnut ingredients.
• Competition & diversification: Global hazelnut supply growth in countries like Chile, the US and China is accelerating but from a much smaller base. For now, alternative origins complement rather than displace Turkish kernels, especially in premium and specialty blends.

Trading Outlook

Over the next 1–2 weeks, the Turkish hazelnut market is likely to remain in a mildly bullish-to-sideways range. Weather in the Black Sea is seasonally warm but not yet threatening, while firm processing costs, tighter stocks and still-healthy confectionery demand limit downside potential.

• Industry buyers (roasters, chocolate, spreads): Consider covering Q3–Q4 2026 needs on price dips near current levels for natural 11–13mm and 13–15mm kernels, as the risk skew favours gradual firmness into the new‑crop marketing year.
• Traders/exporters: Maintain moderate long exposure in quality Turkish kernels, but avoid overextension until clearer indications emerge on 2026 yield and TMO intervention levels. Use any short‑lived demand slowdowns in Europe to secure forward contracts.
• Organic segment users: Organic premiums above 100% look structurally supported by limited certified acreage and compliance costs; consider longer‑dated contracts to mitigate future availability and price risk.

3‑Day Short-Term Price Indication (EUR, directional)

• Istanbul FOB natural kernels 11–13mm & 13–15mm: Bias: steady to slightly firmer, with exporters testing small increases if FX or domestic costs tick higher.
• Istanbul/İzmir FOB roasted products (meal, diced): Bias: mostly steady, as roasting margins are already compressed and demand is price‑sensitive in bakery and paste applications.
• İzmir FOB organic kernels: Bias: firm at elevated premiums; limited spot offers, with any additional demand likely to price above current quotes.