Hazelnuts at a Crossroads as Turkey Awaits TMO Price Signal

Hazelnut prices are stabilising after months of decline, but the market is in a holding pattern ahead of TMO’s 2026 support price. Large industry is already locking in supply as far as Q1 2027, while many smaller buyers and exporters remain cautious, expecting the TMO decision to set the direction for the next season. The Turkish hazelnut market is currently marked by low seasonal liquidity due to summer holidays and widespread wait-and-see behaviour. Spot prices in Central Europe have stopped falling and even edged higher in some segments, attracting the first wave of long-term buyers. At the same time, expectations of a very good 2026 crop and high carryover stocks keep a lid on aggressive price rallies. The core question for the coming weeks is how far the TMO will go to protect growers’ margins in an environment of still high domestic inflation and elevated financing costs.

Prices

Current DAP Central Europe indications show a mixed but broadly stabilising picture: organic kernels 11–13 mm around 7.71 EUR/kg, conventional kernels 11–13 mm about 8.90 EUR/kg, and roasted kernels 11–13 mm near 12.24 EUR/kg. Smaller roasted fractions and paste trade lower, with hazelnut paste around 6.02 EUR/kg, reflecting pressure from abundant small kernels and lower-grade material.

Overall index performance remains weak in the short term (about -1.8% over one week and roughly -14% over the quarter), but the longer horizon still shows positive returns over 3–10 years. Recent FOB offers from Turkey for conventional natural kernels 11–13 mm and 13–15 mm around the mid- to high-7 EUR/kg range confirm that export prices have found a temporary floor, with only marginal week-on-week changes.

Supply & Demand

The market is split between large industrial buyers, who are already securing volumes for Q1 2027 and beyond, and smaller and mid-sized users who focus mainly on Q4 2026 or prompt coverage. This divergence suggests that institutional buyers see current levels as strategically attractive, even as many others still hope for additional downside.

On the supply side, expectations for the 2026 Turkish crop are very positive, with official comments and industry assessments pointing to one of the better seasons in recent years, supported by favourable rainfall patterns in the Black Sea belt and no major weather shocks so far. At the same time, exports have been relatively sluggish, leading to high stocks that weigh on nearby pricing, particularly for small kernels and lower qualities. Additional supply from Georgia, Azerbaijan, Chile, China and the US further reinforces the comfortable global balance.

Fundamentals & Policy

The market’s key short-term driver is the upcoming TMO support price for the 2026 crop, expected in early August. Many Turkish exporters effectively consider the current season closed and are reluctant to build new positions before this benchmark is known. Whether sizeable inventories are carried into the new season will largely depend on how attractive the TMO price looks versus prevailing export values.

High domestic financing costs in Turkey continue to discourage speculative storage and encourage quick turnover, limiting the willingness of exporters to hold stocks in the hope of higher prices. However, there are early signs of currency and inflation stabilisation, with the Turkish lira expected to depreciate at a slower pace than in previous years. If this trend allows for gradual interest-rate relief, the sector could see lower financing pressure over the medium term, which would structurally support grower economics but could also allow more flexible stock management.

Weather & Crop Outlook

Weather conditions in Turkey’s Black Sea hazelnut belt remain seasonally mild and mostly favourable, with July temperatures in core areas such as Rize generally in the low-to-mid 20s°C and intermittent rainfall. This supports nut fill and quality, and no widespread frost or storm damage has been reported in recent updates from meteorological services and trade sources.

Given the combination of good in-orchard conditions and prior assessments of a strong 2026 crop potential, the production outlook is clearly skewed to the upside versus last season. This reinforces the perception of ample supply for standard grades, even if top-quality large kernels and organic product may remain comparatively tighter.

Bullish vs. Bearish Drivers

Bullish factors

• Expectation of a relatively high TMO support price to shield farmers from persistent inflation and rising costs.
• Large industrial buyers already extending coverage into 2027, signalling confidence in demand and perceived value at current levels.
• Potential tightness in high-quality, large-size kernels and some organic segments despite overall good crop prospects.
• High financing costs and cautious exporter positioning limiting aggressive selling, especially ahead of the TMO announcement.

Bearish factors

• Very good 2026 crop expectations in Turkey, combined with high carryover stocks after weaker export flows.
• Heavy availability of small kernels and lower grades, which weighs on pricing for processed fractions and paste.
• Additional supply from alternative origins such as Georgia, Azerbaijan, Chile, China and the US increasing competition.
• Intense competition among Turkish exporters and high financing costs that discourage stockholding and promote price discounting on standard qualities.

Trading Outlook

• Industry buyers: Consider extending coverage for Q1–Q2 2027 while the market is still in a sideways-to-soft phase and before TMO’s decision, especially for large sizes and specific quality-sensitive needs.
• Smaller roasters and chocolatiers: Maintain minimum cover through Q4 2026 but avoid overbuying before TMO clarity; use any TMO-induced dip in standard grades as an opportunity to top up.
• Exporters and origin sellers: Manage inventories conservatively until the support price is known; prioritize quality differentiation and flexible logistics to defend margins in a competitive environment.

3‑Day Price Indication (Directional)