Turkish Hazelnuts Find a Floor as New-Crop Caution Emerges

Prices for Turkish hazelnuts appear to have found a tentative floor, with natural kernels edging away from the aggressive discounting seen in previous weeks while most processed products remain broadly stable. Short-term downside seems limited as sellers reduce forward pressure and buyers return to cover, even as overall price levels remain far below those of six months ago. The market has shifted from a clear downtrend to a more balanced, wait‑and‑see configuration. Average offers for Turkish natural kernels 11–13 mm DAP Central Europe now hover just under EUR 8/kg, with the latest snapshot showing organic grades around EUR 7.72/kg and conventional about EUR 8.79/kg, both slightly lower week-on-week but underpinned by improving demand. Roasted and paste quotations show only marginal moves, suggesting that value‑added segments are more resilient. With Turkey’s state grain board TMO expected to play an active stabilizing role and weather‑related kernel drop risks still on the radar, sellers have scaled back their earlier aggressive new‑crop offers while buyers increasingly lock in coverage for the 2026/27 season.

Prices & Performance

Average hazelnut kernel offers in Central Europe (DAP) show a mixed but stabilizing picture. Natural kernels 11–13 mm remain the key benchmark, with organic and conventional grades both slightly lower week-on-week but no longer in free fall. Processed and industrial items show minor adjustments but broadly confirm that the market is searching for equilibrium rather than extending the previous sharp decline.

Short‑term performance data underline the depth of the earlier correction: average prices are down about 1.8% over one week, nearly 18% over the quarter and more than 61% over the last six months. However, on a three‑ and five‑year horizon, levels remain 30–37% above historical averages, highlighting that the current market is cheap versus recent peaks but still not at decade lows.

Supply, Demand & Policy Drivers

Market sentiment around natural kernels has clearly shifted. Sellers are now offering the upcoming crop less aggressively, citing expectations of a more active intervention stance from TMO, potential harvest damage from kernel drop and a generally tighter spot offer side as post‑interest‑payment selling pressure eases. This has reduced the volume of heavily discounted forward offers that previously weighed on prices.

On the demand side, many buyers have already reacted to low price levels by stepping back into the market. Coverage for late 2026 and early 2027 has increased, helping to stabilize prices and even trigger slight upward corrections in some items. Processed products such as roasted 2–4 mm and paste show only marginal week‑on‑week moves, underlining that industrial users continue to value supply security and are willing to pay a modest premium for ready‑to‑use material.

Policy developments add a new layer of competition. A new EU regulation (2026/1455) opens a duty‑free quota for 500,000 mt of US nuts, including hazelnut kernels. While actual utilization of this quota remains uncertain, it structurally improves the attractiveness of US origin for European buyers and may cap the upside for Turkish prices in the medium term if US exporters respond with competitive offers.

Fundamentals & Weather

Fundamentally, the global hazelnut balance sheet is set to loosen modestly compared with the previous tight seasons. Industry estimates point to a strong rebound in Turkey’s 2026/27 crop versus last year’s lower output, while other origins such as Azerbaijan, Georgia, Chile and the USA are also reported to have solid production prospects. This broader global supply backdrop helps explain the deep price correction visible in the half‑year performance.

Weather remains a key short‑term risk. Recent assessments in Turkey’s Black Sea region highlight ongoing work on crop estimates, and market participants are closely monitoring kernel set and potential drop. While July weather across much of Turkey is currently forecast to be seasonally warm with no extreme anomalies, the earlier reports of cooler and drier spells during the kernel‑filling phase have raised some concerns about final kernel size and quality, even if overall volumes look adequate.

The foreign‑exchange backdrop is comparatively calm. The Turkish lira has traded within its typical volatility band in recent weeks, so most of the current price movement reflects hazelnut‑specific fundamentals rather than currency shocks. Combined with the expectation of an active TMO, this supports the view that a near‑term floor is forming in export and European destination prices.

Trading Outlook & 3‑Day View

Trading recommendations (short term, indicative):

• European industrial buyers: Consider extending cover on natural kernels 11–13 mm and key roasted fractions into Q4 2026 and Q1 2027 while prices remain near recent lows and sellers are less aggressive but still negotiable.
• Retail and branded users: Use the current stabilization phase to secure at least partial forward coverage, especially for organic kernels and specialty roasted grades where supply is more limited and policy shifts could tighten differentials.
• Producers and exporters: Avoid deep discounting on forward 2026/27 crop until TMO’s intervention parameters and harvest quality are clearer; prioritize flexible, volume‑scaled contracts with pricing review clauses.

3‑day directional outlook (EUR basis, indicative):

• Turkish natural kernels 11–13 mm, FOB Istanbul: Sideways to slightly firmer; recent quotes around EUR 7.3–7.4/kg are expected to hold with mild upside risk as sellers test higher replacement levels.
• Turkish roasted kernels (meal and 2–4 mm), FOB Istanbul: Largely steady near EUR 6.1–6.9/kg; marginal firmness possible on improved industrial demand.
• Organic Turkish hazelnut products, FOB Izmir: Stable at elevated differentials (roughly EUR 18–23/kg, depending on grade), with limited near‑term downside given constrained supply and steady European demand.