Turkish Hazelnut Market Finds a Floor as TMO Decision Looms

Turkish hazelnut prices are tentatively stabilizing after weeks of correction, with first list increases signaling that sellers see a floor while buyers cautiously return. Yet the market remains highly speculative ahead of TMO’s 2026/27 intervention price, keeping volatility elevated. After a prolonged downtrend, sentiment on the Turkish hazelnut market has improved slightly. Exporters are testing higher offers, especially for good natural kernels, while still liquidating older stocks to meet heavy financing and interest obligations. At the same time, expectations of a significantly larger 2026/27 Turkish crop and further active state market support keep many participants on the sidelines. Alternative origins in Georgia, Azerbaijan and Chile are gaining relevance, widening buyers’ options and sharpening competition for Turkish suppliers.

Prices

Recent offers confirm a shallow but visible price floor in Turkey. After earlier cuts, some exporters have now lifted price lists modestly, mainly for higher-quality natural kernels, while processed products still trade at discounts.

*Range includes natural and processed organic kernel products.

Quality spreads continue to widen: top natural kernels command a clear premium over processed and lower-grade lots. Georgian kernels remain noticeably more expensive (around EUR 9.60–11.20/kg FCA Poland for 11–13 mm to 15+), reflecting limited volumes and strong niche demand.

Supply & Demand

Market attention is already turning to the 2026 harvest. Early international estimates point to a markedly larger Turkish crop for 2026/27, but the domestic market is focused on the still-unknown TMO intervention price expected in early August. Until then, trading will stay speculative, with exporters split between forward-selling new crop and holding back in expectation of higher state support.

Export demand has been subdued in recent months, with lower export-to-supply ratios and buyers increasingly diversifying into Chile, Georgia and Azerbaijan. These origins now cover a growing share of industrial demand and reduce dependence on Turkey, strengthening buyers’ negotiating position. Nevertheless, structurally tight availability of premium-quality kernels, particularly from traditional Black Sea growing areas, underpins the upper end of the price spectrum.

Fundamentals & Financing

Short-term market behavior is driven as much by finance as by agronomics. High Turkish inflation and elevated interest rates mean many exporters face sizeable quarter-end interest payments. To secure liquidity, some have recently accepted loss-making spot sales, adding to downward price pressure even as they signal that the fundamental floor is near.

Quality is another critical driver. Good, fresh natural kernels are becoming scarcer, while larger volumes of older, lower-grade raw material continue to flow into processing. This accelerates price differentiation: top natural kernels are stabilizing or edging higher, whereas cheaper processed fractions and blends remain under pressure. The combination of rising production and financing costs and limited top-grade availability argues for a firmer medium-term trend in the best Turkish qualities, despite weak demand episodes.

Weather & Crop Outlook

Key Turkish hazelnut provinces along the Black Sea (Ordu, Giresun, Trabzon, Samsun) currently report seasonally typical early-summer conditions, with no widespread frost or drought stress. Short-range forecasts for the next days indicate moderate temperatures and intermittent showers, which are supportive for nut filling and orchard health.

While localized weather events remain a risk through summer, there are currently no major alarm signals that would fundamentally tighten the 2026/27 supply outlook. In this setting, market participants are more focused on policy (TMO pricing and buying strategy) and macro-financial conditions than on near-term weather.

Trading Outlook

• Buyers (industry, roasters): Use the current stabilization phase to secure part of Q4 2026–Q1 2027 needs in high-quality natural kernels. Consider staggered coverage until after TMO’s price announcement, as policy risk remains significant.
• Sellers (Turkish exporters): Avoid over-aggressive discounting in top qualities; focus forced sales on older or processed stock to relieve financing pressure. Maintain flexibility on new-crop offers until TMO guidance is clearer.
• Alternative-origin suppliers: Georgia, Azerbaijan and Chile can leverage elevated Turkish financing and policy uncertainty, but should remain price-competitive as buyers increasingly arbitrage origins.
• Risk factors to watch: TMO intervention price level and timing, Turkish lira volatility, updated 2026/27 crop estimates, and any weather shocks in Black Sea orchards.

3-day directional view (EUR-based indications):

• TR natural kernels FOB Istanbul: sideways to slightly firm for top grades; weaker tone for low and processed qualities.
• Organic kernels FOB İzmir: stable at a high premium, with limited spot liquidity.
• GE kernels FCA Poland: broadly steady at elevated levels, reflecting niche demand and modest spot availability.