Turkish Hazelnut Prices Ease as Bigger Crop Looms and Demand Stays Soft
Turkish hazelnut kernel prices ease in late June 2026 as a bigger 2026/27 crop and weak demand weigh on the market. FOB price levels, drivers and 3-day outlook.
Prices
All prices below are approximate and converted into EUR using a late-June 2026 EUR/TRY rate around 53.2 and recent EUR/USD indications.
- Turkish kernel prices in EUR are down roughly 2–3% week-on-week, continuing a gradual softening trend seen since early June as export demand remains subdued and sellers anticipate a larger upcoming crop.
- Farm-gate prices in Black Sea cities such as Ordu, Giresun and Trabzon are reported weak and below grower expectations, underlining pressure at origin even before the new harvest.
- German spot retail/wholesale prices around €9.70/kg for kernels highlight that Turkish FOB levels remain competitive but leave limited margin for further downside without squeezing growers.
Supply & Demand
Turkey is heading into the 2026/27 season with expectations of a significantly larger hazelnut crop after last year’s weather-affected harvest. Preliminary industry and media estimates point to Turkish production around 810,000 tons in-shell, up more than 50% year-on-year, which would decisively loosen the export balance.
Despite this supply recovery, Turkish export revenues in January–May 2026 reached about USD 1.2 billion, but volumes lag last year, reflecting both sticky high prices earlier in the season and slower off-take from European confectionery buyers. Buyers have responded with more cautious forward coverage, relying on existing stocks and alternative origins such as Georgia and EU producers where suitable.
Global demand growth remains modest. Market intelligence points to cautious procurement from major chocolate and spread manufacturers in Europe, who are managing overall ingredient costs amid soft retail demand and still-elevated product prices. This leaves Turkey facing the 2026/27 season with the prospect of abundant supply but only gradually improving demand, a combination that structurally caps upside on FOB kernel prices without strong policy support.
Fundamentals & Policy
Recent reports highlight that the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) is likely to continue its price-support role in hazelnuts, and market participants are already speculating about a possible increase in the forthcoming intervention price to protect growers from the pressure of a large crop. This policy acts as a floor under farm-gate levels, but it also constrains how far export offers can fall without creating losses along the chain.
At the same time, the weak Turkish lira versus the euro continues to underpin international competitiveness of Turkish kernels in EUR terms, even if TRY-denominated farm incomes look disappointing. International buyers are watching the intersection of TMO policy and FX moves closely; a higher intervention price combined with any lira rebound could quickly tighten margins and limit discounts to European customers.
Organic hazelnut kernels remain in a structurally tighter balance, reflected in stable prices around €18–22/kg FOB from İzmir and a very high premium over conventional grades. Limited certified acreage and strong demand from premium chocolate and health-food segments mean these prices have shown little reaction to the softening in the conventional segment so far.
Weather Outlook – Black Sea Growing Belt (TR)
Late June weather in Turkey’s main hazelnut belt (Ordu, Giresun, Trabzon, Sakarya) is seasonally mild and predominantly dry-to-showery, with daytime temperatures largely in the mid-20s °C and no forecast of extreme heat or damaging storms over the next few days. Such conditions are broadly favourable for nut fill and pest management as orchards move toward the key pre-harvest phase in July–August.
After an unusually wet winter and a cooler-than-average spring that initially raised concerns about disease pressure, current short-term outlooks do not indicate acute weather stress that would materially alter the projected 2026/27 crop size. As a result, fundamental price drivers in the very near term are more closely linked to policy signals and trade flows than to weather risk.
Trading Outlook & 3-Day Price View
- Short-term bias (next 1–2 weeks): Slightly bearish to sideways for conventional Turkish kernels. Ample old-crop availability, expectations of a bigger new crop and soft demand suggest limited upside, while TMO floor pricing and grower resistance curb steep declines.
- For importers/users: Consider layering in some nearby coverage at current levels for standard 11–13 mm and 13–15 mm grades, while keeping flexibility for Q4–Q1 deliveries in case new-crop pressure generates additional discounts. Focus on suppliers with strong quality-control capacity given the risk of disease in high-rainfall orchards this season.
- For Turkish sellers/exporters: Maintain competitive EUR offers and be prepared for further negotiation with EU buyers as they compare Turkish kernels to alternative European and Caucasus origins. Avoid overcommitting on volumes before TMO announces its intervention price for the 2026/27 crop.
- For organic segment players: Given stable, high premiums and tighter availability, both buyers and sellers can expect relatively firm prices; opportunistic dips are likely to be shallow unless broader demand weakens significantly.
3-day directional outlook (EUR, TR origin, FOB):
- Natural kernels 11–13 mm, Istanbul FOB: slightly softer to flat (limited trade, mild downward pressure).
- Natural kernels 13–15 mm, Istanbul FOB: flat to slightly softer, with buyers testing lower bids but sellers anchored by TMO expectations.
- Roasted products (meal, diced), Istanbul FOB: mostly stable; processing margins act as a buffer against further near-term declines.
- Organic kernels, İzmir FOB: stable; no immediate catalyst for price changes in the next few days.