Turkish Hazelnuts Hold Firm as New-Crop Expectations Cap Upside

Turkish hazelnut kernel prices are broadly steady in early July, with only mild firming in some conventional grades while organics remain flat. A strong 2026 crop outlook and softening global prices are capping upside, but the weak lira keeps export offers competitive in EUR terms. Hazelnut markets in Türkiye are transitioning from the tight 2025/26 balance into a more comfortable 2026/27 outlook. Recent analyses point to higher Turkish and Georgian supply this season, easing global shortage concerns and tempering buyers’ urgency. At the same time, domestic TRY-based prices are under pressure from high inflation and a sharply weaker lira, but exporters quoting in EUR remain shielded. Demand from Europe is steady but more price-sensitive, with some users reportedly reformulating away from hazelnuts after last season’s price spike. Weather in the Black Sea orchards is seasonally warm-to-hot without immediate stress signals, supporting expectations for a solid crop.

Prices

Export offers for Turkish hazelnut kernels remain stable to slightly higher in EUR on the week, despite domestic currency volatility. External market data show July 2026 average Turkish hazelnut prices around EUR 7.5–8.0/kg equivalent for bulk kernels, broadly aligning with current FOB references from Istanbul.

The Turkish lira continues to depreciate, with ECB reference levels around TRY 53.2–53.7 per EUR in early July 2026, which helps offset any local cost increases when converted into euros. Conventional kernel offers remain competitive versus Georgian product, where recent reports still indicate export averages near USD 10/kg (roughly EUR 9/kg), keeping some premium for EU buyers but narrowing spreads versus earlier in the year.

Supply & Demand

Recent industry commentary highlights a stronger Turkish 2026 hazelnut crop compared with last season, while Georgia is also on track for ample exports, contributing to a more comfortable global balance. Earlier in the year, export data showed Turkish shipments by volume down but revenue higher on elevated unit prices, underlining how tightness in 2025/26 supported values; this tightness is now easing as new-crop expectations improve.

On the demand side, EU buyers remain active but cautious after last season’s price spike and some media attention on hazelnut-driven product inflation, particularly in confectionery. Several food manufacturers have reportedly diversified nut usage or adjusted recipes, tempering immediate upside for hazelnuts even as fundamentals improve. Overall, trade flows from Türkiye are expected to remain strong thanks to its dominant ~65% share of global supply and ongoing interest from Europe and emerging markets.

Weather & Crop Conditions (TR)

Key Turkish hazelnut regions along the Black Sea (Ordu, Giresun, Samsun, Trabzon) are currently in the mid‑summer development stage, with no major stress flagged in the latest regional updates. While long-term research confirms these provinces as the core production belt, there are no fresh reports of frost or severe storms impacting the 2026 crop in the last few days.

Local commentary from recent weeks has focused more on the aftermath of last season’s weather-related shortfalls and high prices than on any new damage this month. With seasonal warmth and adequate humidity typical for July in the eastern Black Sea, current indications support the narrative of a normal-to-good crop potential, which in turn underpins the slightly softer price bias seen in international markets.

Fundamentals & Macro Drivers

The macro backdrop for Turkish hazelnuts remains dominated by currency and inflation dynamics. The continued depreciation of the lira versus the euro improves export competitiveness and partially buffers foreign buyers from domestic cost inflation and wage pressures. At the same time, local consumers face high retail nut prices, reinforcing the incentive for exporters to prioritize overseas markets where margins are stronger.

Globally, hazelnut prices are drifting lower from last season’s peak, as indicated by international price trackers showing a modest month‑on‑month softening in July 2026. However, inventories are not burdensome, and any unexpected weather shock in the next 4–6 weeks could quickly tighten the balance again. Georgian exports, which averaged close to USD 10/kg earlier this year, illustrate how regional suppliers are still capitalizing on elevated but easing prices.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

• Bias: mild downside for conventional kernels, stable for organics. With a stronger 2026 crop outlook and softening international benchmarks, spot conventional prices are more likely to trade sideways to slightly lower in EUR, while tight organic availability keeps premiums intact.
• For buyers: Consider layering in coverage for Q4 2026–Q1 2027 needs on any dips, especially for key calibers (13–15 mm) and organic grades where liquidity is thinner. Avoid overextending nearby coverage given the still‑constructive supply outlook.
• For sellers: Use current firmness in EUR prices to secure forward contracts, particularly for value‑added roasted and chopped products. Keep offers flexible on conventional raw kernels to stay competitive against Georgian origin.
• Risk watch: Monitor Black Sea weather closely through late July and early August; a late adverse event during kernel filling could quickly reverse the mild bearish sentiment.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (EUR, directional)

• FOB Istanbul, conventional kernels: Sideways to slightly softer over the next 3 trading days, as markets digest strong new‑crop expectations and a still‑weak lira.
• FOB İzmir, organic kernels and processed: Largely stable; niche demand and limited spot volume should keep EUR prices in a tight range.
• Black Sea internal buying (Ordu–Giresun region, farmgate equivalent): Locally quoted in TRY, but broadly steady in EUR terms due to currency moves; no sharp shifts expected before clearer harvest signals emerge.