Hungary, once a major apple producer in Europe, is facing a historic low in apple harvest for 2025. With industry estimates pegging the crop at just 160,000 tons—less than half of last year’s output—the sector is under severe strain due to adverse weather, reduced orchard acreage, and the lingering effects of climate volatility. Spring frosts, unusually dark May skies, and scorching June temperatures have all contributed to the lowest recorded harvest in the nation’s history.
The direct consequence is a supply shortfall for both fresh and industrial apples, leading to increased import dependence and a likely uptick in market prices across Central Europe. The dramatic cut in Hungary’s production—well below its long-term average—has profound implications for processed apple products as well, potentially altering trade flows, price dynamics, and the balance of supply in regional apple markets. As the 2025 campaign nears its peak harvest period, market participants are bracing for price volatility and are closely watching weather patterns that could yet revise final yield estimates. For buyers, suppliers, and processors, this shortage marks a clear warning: the European apple market is entering a period of heightened risk and pronounced price movements.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Apple dried
Cubes 10-12 mm
FCA 4.55 €/kg
(from NL)
Apple dried
Cubes 8-10 mm
FCA 4.50 €/kg
(from NL)
Apple dried
Cubes 5-7 mm
FCA 4.60 €/kg
(from NL)
📈 Prices
| Product | Type | Origin | Location | Delivery Terms | Current Price (€/kg) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apple dried | Cubes 10-12 mm | CN | Dordrecht, NL | FCA | 4.55 | 0.00 | Neutral, awaiting harvest news |
| Apple dried | Cubes 8-10 mm | CN | Dordrecht, NL | FCA | 4.50 | 0.00 | Neutral, firm due to stable demand |
| Apple dried | Cubes 5-7 mm | CN | Dordrecht, NL | FCA | 4.60 | 0.00 | Firm, supply pressures expected |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Production (2025): 160,000 tons projected—less than half the 342,000-ton 2024 crop, and 40–45% below the 2022 low.
- Fresh Market Availability: Only 60,000–80,000 tons expected for direct consumption vs. 110,000–120,000 tons domestic demand.
- Processing Apples: 80,000–100,000 tons headed for juice/concentrate vs. 350,000–400,000 tons usual demand.
- Import Need: Substantial, as both fresh and processed sectors face severe under-supply.
- Orchard Area: Now just 20,000 hectares—half the size of two decades ago.
📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers
- Key Drivers:
- Adverse Weather: Spring frosts, low sunshine in May, and June heatwaves causing widespread crop damage.
- Structural Decline: Shrinking orchard area limiting production potential long-term.
- Regional Balance: EU neighbors may see strengthened demand for their apples and processed products due to Hungary’s shortfall.
- Industry Caution: Crop projections could still be revised downward if late-summer weather worsens.
- Speculative Positioning: Buyers cautious, with spot purchases outweighing forward contracts due to uncertainty.
☀️ Weather Outlook & Yield Impact
- Spring 2025: Late frosts followed by cloudy conditions and intense early summer heatwaves.
- Harvest Timeline: Early varieties started in small volumes; main harvest set for late August through September.
- Near-Term Risk: Yields at risk of further downgrade if August/September weather turns adverse—close monitoring needed.
🌐 Global Production & Stock (Key Comparisons)
| Country | 2025 Expected Output (kt) | Long-term Average (kt) | Stock Situation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hungary | 160 | 500 | Severely undersupplied; historic low |
| Poland | Approx. 4,300* | 4,400 | Stable, potential to supply deficit regions |
| Italy | 2,200* | 2,200 | Normal, but higher export expectation |
| Germany | Around 1,000* | 1,000 | Tight, increased import needs from neighbors |
*Indicative: Awaiting final harvest updates.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- For Buyers:
- Secure contracts early—supply risk is high, especially for fresh-market and processing apples.
- Monitor late-summer weather for potential downward revisions.
- Expect upward price movement for both fresh and dried apple products.
- For Sellers/Processors:
- Consider holding product if possible to benefit from anticipated price gains.
- Diversify sources (e.g., Poland, Italy) if reliant on Hungarian apples for processing.
- Expect active spot demand in late Q3 and Q4 2025.
📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Date | Product | Key Exchange/Location | Forecast Price (€/kg) | Market Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-30 | Dried Apple Cubes (CN, FCA/Dordrecht) | Dordrecht, NL | 4.50–4.60 | Steady, with upside bias on low harvest news |
| 2025-08-31 | Dried Apple Cubes (CN, FCA/Dordrecht) | Dordrecht, NL | 4.50–4.65 | Firm, buyers monitoring crop reports |
| 2025-09-01 | Dried Apple Cubes (CN, FCA/Dordrecht) | Dordrecht, NL | 4.50–4.70 | Possible uptick on heightened supply risk |
Note: Prices shown reflect latest offers as of August 29, 2025. Short-term trend is upward, especially if weather risks persist and Hungary’s shortfall sharpens regional competition for available stocks.