The International Grains Council (IGC) has revised its global grain production forecasts for both the current and upcoming marketing years (MY). Here are the highlights from their latest report:
Global Grain Production in 2023/24 MY
- The forecast for global grain production for the current MY has been reduced by 6 million tons to 2.3 billion tons, representing a 2% increase over the previous season’s estimate. This adjustment is primarily attributed to deteriorating corn harvest prospects in the Southern Hemisphere.
Outlook for 2024/25 MY
- For the upcoming MY, IGC experts anticipate a record-breaking cereal production of 2.33 billion tons, driven by improved yields in wheat and feed grains. The increased production is expected to meet rising demand, particularly for feed usage.
Wheat Production
- The production forecast for the 2023/24 MY has been raised to 789 million tons, up by 1 million tons compared to previous estimates. In the 2024/25 MY, production is projected to reach 799 million tons.
Soybean Production
- For the 2023/24 MY, soybean harvest forecasts have been revised upward by 4% to a record 390 million tons. This increase is attributed to production recovery in Argentina, offsetting lower yields in Brazil and the US. Consumption is expected to peak in these countries, leading to a significant increase in processing volume. Trade is forecasted to decrease by 3%, including shipments to major importers like China and Argentina.
- In the 2024/25 MY, soybean production is expected to grow by 6% due to expanded sowing areas and improved yields. Trade is projected to increase by 4%, driven by strong demand from Asia, Africa, and the Americas. Consequently, soybean consumption and stocks are forecasted to rise.
Other Crops
- The total volume of world trade in legumes is forecasted to increase to 20.8 million tons in 2024, primarily due to growing demand for dry peas.
- Corn production for the 2024/25 MY is anticipated to increase by 0.5% compared to the current season, reaching 1.23 billion tons.
Despite challenges in some major producing countries, the global grain market is poised for robust production and trade in the coming marketing year, with significant implications for consumption, stocks, and international trade dynamics.