IGC Raises Corn and Soy Forecasts – Wheat Faces Weather-Driven Uncertainty
Wheat markets remain in a fragile balance. While expectations for record global corn and soy crops ease pressure, the outlook for wheat is clouded by dry weather in key regions. Investors are watching closely: will tightening stocks and weather risks spark a rally?
📊 1. Market Overview: Exchange Prices & Trends
| 📅 Contract | 💰 Closing Price | 📉 Change | 📊 % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Euronext May 2025 | €222.25/t | 0.00 | 0.0% |
| Euronext September 2025 | €223.50/t | 0.00 | 0.0% |
| CBOT May 2025 | 546.25 ct/bu (€186.50/t) | -2.00 ct | -0.36% |
| CBOT July 2025 | 563.25 ct/bu (€192.30/t) | -2.00 ct | -0.35% |
📌 Quiet markets despite growing weather risks and shifting global supply forecasts.
🌍 2. Key Market Drivers & Influencing Factors
🔹 📈 IGC Raises Corn & Soy Projections
📊 According to the International Grains Council (IGC):
- Corn production 2025/26: Raised to 1.269 billion tons (vs. 1.217 last season)
- Corn consumption: 1.263 billion tons
- Corn ending stocks: 280 million tons (+6 million)
- Soybean production: Record 427 million tons
- Soybean demand: 426 million tons
- Soybean ending stocks: 83 million tons (+1 million)
📌 Record corn and soy output eases global food security concerns – but wheat is a different story.
🔹 🌾 Wheat Outlook: Risk Remains
📊 The IGC forecasts global wheat production in 2025/26 at 807 million tons,
but this figure is conditional on favourable weather:
- North America, Europe, and Russia must experience ideal spring and summer growing conditions
- Dryness in Eastern Europe after a dry winter could undermine yields
📌 Any dryness in Russia or Ukraine could lead to downgraded harvest expectations.
🔹 📉 Global Wheat Ending Stocks to Fall
📊 Despite a solid harvest outlook, global wheat ending stocks are expected to decline again in 2025/26.
📌 This tightening could provide price support in the medium term – if markets react.
🔹 🌍 Regional Weather Concerns
🇷🇺 Russia:
- Winter wheat emerged from dormancy better than expected, thanks to mild conditions
- However, soil moisture remains a concern, especially for spring wheat planting, which makes up about one-third of Russian production
🇺🇸 Kansas (USA):
- 47% of the winter wheat area shows inadequate soil moisture
- Only 48% rated good-to-excellent, 7 points lower than last year
📌 Moisture deficits across key producers could reduce yield potential.
🔹 📉 Market Sentiment: Investors Still Betting Against Wheat
📊 Despite rising weather risks:
- Speculators are maintaining large net-short positions
- Any shift in weather outlook could trigger short-covering rallies
📌 The market may be setting up for sudden upward corrections.
🔮 3. Price Forecast (March 26–28, 2025)
| 📅 Contract | 🔮 Expected Range |
|---|---|
| Euronext May 2025 | €221 – €225/t |
| Euronext September 2025 | €222 – €227/t |
| CBOT May 2025 | 545 – 555 ct/bu (€185 – €189/t) |
📌 Markets remain range-bound, but vulnerable to sharp moves if weather shifts.
⛅ 4. 14-Day Weather Outlook: Key Growing Regions
🇺🇸 USA – Kansas, Great Plains (Winter Wheat)
📍 Current: ~Half of the area still lacks sufficient moisture
📆 Outlook:
- 🌡️ Mild temperatures
- 🌧️ Scattered rain; not enough to ease deficits
🇷🇺 Russia & 🇺🇦 Ukraine – Black Sea Region
📍 Current: Winter wheat improved, but dryness persists
📆 Outlook:
- 🌡️ Favorable temperatures
- 🌧️ Little rain forecasted – risk for spring wheat and early crop development
📌 Wheat markets remain highly sensitive to regional weather changes.
📉 5. Long-Term Market Data: IGC Supply Forecast
| 📅 Season | 🌍 Global Ending Stocks (Mio. t) | 📉 Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 (Est.) | 274.0 | – |
| 2024/25 (Est.) | 274.0 | ±0 |
| 2025/26 (Forecast) | ↓ (Wheat), ↑ (Corn & Soy) | Wheat stocks expected to decline |
| 🌾 Crop | 📅 2024/25 Output | 📅 2025/26 Forecast | 🔄 Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🌽 Corn | 1.217 Bn t | 1.269 Bn t | +52 Mio t |
| 🌱 Soybeans | 409 Mio t | 427 Mio t | +18 Mio t |
| 🌾 Wheat | 801 Mio t | 807 Mio t | +6 Mio t |
📌 6. Conclusion & Recommendations
📍 Key Takeaways: ✅ Corn & soy output surge, but wheat faces weather-related uncertainty
✅ Global wheat stocks likely to tighten again
✅ Eastern Europe & Russia face increasing moisture stress
✅ Investors remain bearish, but short-covering rallies are possible
📌 Strategic Recommendations: 🔹 Producers: Watch soil moisture trends and be ready to act on short-term rallies
🔹 Buyers: Consider locking in volumes before spring weather risk spikes
🔹 Traders: Market is coiled for volatility – a shift in weather sentiment could trigger price surges
📍 Weather and geopolitics will continue to drive price direction in the weeks ahead.