Increased Production Forecasts
In its July 18 report, the International Grains Council (IGC) raised its forecasts for global wheat and corn production for the 2024/25 marketing year. The overall grain production forecast, which includes wheat and feed grain, was increased by 8 million tons to a record 2.321 billion tons, surpassing the previous season’s figure by 1%.
Factors Contributing to Higher Forecasts
The improved outlook is attributed to better-than-expected wheat harvest prospects in North America, Pakistan, and Kazakhstan, as well as enhanced corn production forecasts in the United States.
Impact on Stocks and Demand
Despite a lower estimate of opening stocks and a slight increase in forecast demand, ending stocks are expected to be up by 4 million tons from June estimates. While feed, food, and industrial use are projected to rise to record levels, ending grain stocks for FY 2024/25 will decline by 1% to a 10-year low of 586 million tons.
Global Grain Trade
The volume of global grain trade is expected to decrease by 7% compared to the 2023/24 marketing year, dropping to 418 million tons.
Soybean and Rice Production
Soybean production is forecasted to increase by 6% to a peak of 415 million tons, with consumption rising to a record 404 million tons. Global soybean trade is projected to grow by 3% compared to the previous season, driven by stronger demand from China, Europe, and Africa.
The IGC also predicts that rice production for FY 2024/25 will grow by 2% compared to FY 2023/24, reaching a record 528 million tons.
Price Index Trends
In July, the IGC price index for grains and oilseeds—which includes prices for wheat, corn, barley, rice, and soybeans—decreased by 2% compared to June, falling to 224 points. This is 16% lower than in July 2023.
The IGC’s revised forecasts highlight the dynamic nature of global agricultural markets. Improved harvest prospects in key regions and increased production capacities underscore the resilience of the agricultural sector. However, the anticipated decline in global grain trade and ending stocks suggests that stakeholders must remain vigilant and adaptable to changing market conditions.