The recent decline in Chicago soybean futures has had a significant impact on soybean prices in Brazil. July grain contracts closed down by 7.00 cents, or 0.56%, at $12.39 1/4 per bushel. On Thursday, there was a noticeable reduction in soybean movements, especially at Brazilian ports. Prices remained mixed with minimal fluctuations throughout the day. The dollar showed little change, and Chicago experienced a decline.
Soybean Prices at Key Brazilian Locations
- Passo Fundo (RS): Steady at 134 R$
- Missões Region: Steady at 133 R$
- Port of Rio Grande: Steady at 141 R$
- Cascavel (PR): Steady at 132 R$
- Port of Paranaguá (PR): Dropped from 141 R$ to 140 R$
- Rondonópolis (MT): Unchanged at 124 R$
- Dourados (MS): Increased from 125 R$ to 124.50 R$
- Rio Verde (GO): Steady at 124 R$
Chicago Soybean Futures
Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed lower on Thursday, influenced by a more than 1% drop in oil prices. The market underwent a technical correction following the lack of confirmation of soybean sales from the U.S. to China, despite rumors on the previous day that supported contracts. Weak U.S. export figures, a rising dollar, and falling oil prices compounded the losses.
U.S. Soybean Export Data
For the week ending May 16, net U.S. soybean exports for the 2023/24 season, which began on September 1, totaled 279,400 tons. An additional 65,500 tons were recorded for the 2024/25 season. Analysts had expected combined exports for both seasons to range between 300,000 and 700,000 tons.
Soybean Futures Contracts
July Delivery: Soybean contracts for July delivery fell by 7.00 cents, or 0.56%, to $12.39 1/4 per bushel.
August Position: Dropped by 5.50 cents, or 0.44%, to $12.37 3/4 per bushel.
In related markets:
Soybean Meal (July): Declined by $1.50, or 0.39%, closing at $376.70 per ton.
Oil (July): Fell by 0.69 cents, or 1.50%, closing at 45.19 cents.
Commercial Dollar Session
The commercial dollar session ended with a 0.03% decrease, trading at 5.1529 R$ for selling and 5.1509 R$ for buying. Throughout the day, the North American currency fluctuated between a minimum of 5.1257 R$ and a maximum of 5.1602 R$.
Factors Influencing Soybean Prices
Several factors could determine whether soybean prices will rise, remain stable, or fall:
Global Market Trends: The performance of major futures markets like Chicago will continue to have a significant impact.
Export Data: Confirmation or lack thereof of large export sales, especially to major buyers like China, will influence prices.
Currency Fluctuations: Changes in the exchange rate of the dollar against the real can affect competitiveness and pricing.
Oil Prices: Since soybean prices are correlated with oil prices, significant movements in the energy sector will also play a role.
Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding future price movements in the soybean market.