The 2024–25 season is set to be a landmark year for the onion market, especially in India, the world’s major onion producer. With a bumper harvest lifting output by more than 6.5 million tonnes year-on-year to a record 30.77 million tonnes, supply-side pressures that dominated the previous year’s market have eased considerably. This upsurge, highlighted in India’s second advance estimates, is a principal factor behind the projected 3.66% uptick in total horticulture output, thanks to concerted government, scientific, and farmer-led initiatives. Price volatility, which challenged buyers in 2023–24, is giving way to stability, as supply buffs up inventories and tempers market sentiment. However, questions remain about the sustainability of this trend, with global weather patterns, shifting export policies, and speculative interest poised to shape the onion trade in the months ahead. Get a data-rich breakdown of the most current onion prices, supply and demand fundamentals, and actionable guidance for trading strategies, right here.
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Onion powder
grade - B
FOB 1.28 €/kg
(from IN)
Onion powder
white
FOB 1.57 €/kg
(from IN)
Onion
powder
FOB 2.65 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices
| Product | Type/Grade | Origin | Location | Terms | Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Onion powder | Grade – B | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 1.28 | -0.02 | Softening |
| Onion powder | White | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 1.57 | -0.02 | Softening |
| Onion | Powder (Organic) | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 2.65 | -0.02 | Softening |
| Onion | Fresh | EG | Kairo | FOB | 0.78 | -0.01 | Stable |
| Onion flakes | Organic | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 5.20 | -0.02 | Softening |
| Onions fried | Crispy fried | PL | Lodz | FCA | 3.42 | 0.00 | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- India’s 2024–25 onion output: 30.77 million tonnes (+27% y/y), up from 24.27 million tonnes last year.
- Horticulture area: Slight increase to 29.27 million ha (+0.65% y/y); area devoted to onions reflects improved yields rather than expansion.
- Vegetable output (India): 219.67 million tonnes (+6% y/y).
- Global context: India’s export capacity likely to rise, alleviating supply bottlenecks in importing countries, though export controls remain a wild card.
- Fresh onion demand: Remains robust both domestically and globally due to stable food inflation and continued consumer demand in South and Southeast Asia, Middle East, and Europe.
📊 Fundamentals
- Production drivers: Indian government expansion of farmer support and modern agronomics have reduced yield volatility.
- Comparative output (India):
- Potato: 60.18 million tonnes (+3.1 million y/y)
- Tomato: 20.75 million tonnes (-2.7% y/y)
- Spices: 12.37 million tonnes (-0.88% y/y)
- Inventories: Stock levels improving in India and Egypt; importers in Asia and the Middle East expected to benefit from increased availability.
- Speculative activity: Hedge funds and traders have reduced long positions as new-crop supply arrives.
⛅ Weather Outlook
- South Asia (India): Pre-monsoon rainfall has been normal to above-average, boosting soil moisture and supporting late planting. Monsoon forecasts indicate a neutral to positive trend, with no major droughts expected in main onion regions (Maharashtra, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh).
- Egypt: Stable, dry summer supports harvest and post-harvest handling, keeping exports steady.
- Risk: Localized flooding or unseasonal dry spells could still affect yields, but no significant adverse weather is forecasted in the next month.
🌎 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2024–25 Production (mn tonnes) | Stock/Inventories Trend |
|---|---|---|
| India | 30.77 | Rising sharply |
| China | ~23.5* (est.) | Stable |
| Egypt | ~3.0* | Improving |
| United States | ~3.3* | Normal |
| Netherlands | ~1.4* | Stable |
*Estimates based on latest available global trade data and recent supply forecasts
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Abundant new-crop supply is exerting downward pressure on prices, with market sentiment neutral to slightly bearish near-term.
- Exporters: Capitalize on rising inventories and competitive prices to regain or expand market share in Asia and the Middle East.
- Importers: Benefit from spot-market price softness; consider forward contracting while prices remain low.
- Traders/speculators: De-escalate long positions; watch for policy shifts or sudden weather news for volatility triggers.
- Industry users (processors): Secure supply contracts at current rates to hedge against potential later-season volatility.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (EUR/kg, FOB/FCA basis)
| Product | Origin | Today | +1 Day | +2 Days | +3 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Onion powder (Grade – B) | IN | 1.28 | 1.27 | 1.27 | 1.26 |
| Onion powder (White) | IN | 1.57 | 1.56 | 1.56 | 1.55 |
| Onion (Powder, Org.) | IN | 2.65 | 2.64 | 2.64 | 2.63 |
| Onion (Fresh) | EG | 0.78 | 0.78 | 0.77 | 0.77 |
| Onion flakes (Org.) | IN | 5.20 | 5.18 | 5.17 | 5.16 |
| Onions fried (Crispy) | PL | 3.42 | 3.42 | 3.42 | 3.41 |
Note: Forecast reflects expected continuation of downward bias as harvest pressure persists, barring any exogenous shocks.