India Corn Market: Monsoon Delays, Firm Prices, and Weather-Driven Outlook

The Indian corn market is currently navigating a period of both opportunity and uncertainty. This season, major growing hubs such as Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and Bihar have reported expanded cultivation and solid overall production. However, the benefits of this increased output are being tempered by excessive monsoon rainfall, which has delayed the arrival of dry, storage-grade corn in key mandis. High-moisture corn, arriving predominantly from riverbank regions like the Ganga belt, is not suitable for prolonged storage or efficient transport, further tightening the market’s near-term supply.

Despite these logistical and quality challenges, demand from the feed sector—especially in India’s south and west—remains high, underpinning a firm market tone. As arrivals of well-dried corn are postponed, prices have seen support across regions, with the potential for short-term strength should a further harvest delay unfold. Meanwhile, if the weather clears and drying accelerates, wider market arrivals could soon stabilize prices. This delicate supply-demand equilibrium, combined with localized weather risk and robust feed consumption, makes the coming weeks especially sensitive for traders and stakeholders.

📈 Prices & Sentiment

Region/Exchange	Product	Latest Closing Price	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Haryana Mandi	Corn (local)	$29.28–$29.63/quintal	↑ Steady/Firm	Firm
Uttar Pradesh Mandi	Corn (local)	$26.52–$28.60/quintal	Unchanged	Supported
National Average (IN)	Corn	$27.50–$29.50/quintal	Stable	Firm
Paris (FOB)	Corn (FR)	€0.25/kg	No Change	Neutral
Odesa (FOB)	Corn (UA)	€0.20/kg	No Change	Neutral
Odesa (FCA)	Corn, feed grade (UA)	€0.26/kg	+€0.01	Slightly Up
New Delhi (FOB)	Organic Corn Starch (IN)	€1.93/kg	No Change	Niche/Firm

🌍 Supply & Demand

• 🔼 Production: Corn cultivation has risen in key Indian states for 2024, though logistical issues tied to monsoon rains are curbing the immediate availability of dry, storable grain.
• 🔼 Demand: Firm feed demand, particularly from southern/western poultry and cattle sectors, is providing strong price support.
• 🔽 Arrivals: Mandis are reporting below-typical arrivals of dry, ready-to-store corn due to high moisture levels, leaving logistical bottlenecks and short-term supply tightness.
• ⚠️ Quality: High moisture content in much of the new crop makes it less desirable for storage and trade.
• 🔁 Trade Flows: Domestic buying remains robust, while Indian export flows remain subdued amid domestic tightness and low global prices.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• 🌧️ Monsoon Impact: Excessive rainfall delayed harvest and sun-drying, especially along riverbanks. Delays support prices, but adequate clear weather could expedite arrivals.
• 🇮🇳 Government Crop Data: Recent surveys affirm an increase in corn acreage for 2024 versus last year.
• 📦 Global Stocks: Ample global stocks and cheap Black Sea corn continue to cap upside for Indian exports despite domestic tightness.
• 🟩 Speculative Positioning: Notable interest in Indian corn futures and an uptick in local procurement by feed mills indicates bullish undertones short-term.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• ⛈️ North India (Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, MP): Wet conditions persist but are forecast to subside within the next week. Improved drying conditions could speed up harvest and market arrivals.
• ☀️ Central & Southern India: Mostly stable weather expected over the next three days, supportive for drying and post-harvest handling.
• 🌫️ Risk: Continued high humidity or further rains could exacerbate quality issues for storage corn and delay arrivals, driving spot prices higher in tight regions.

🌎 Global Production & Stock Situation

Country	2023/24 Production (Mln t)	2023/24 Stocks (Mln t)	Comments
India	33 (est.)	1.8 (est.)	Output up, but domestic stocks tight for feed
USA	389	56.5	Export surplus; global price setter
Ukraine	29	3.9	Strong export competition (Black Sea)
Brazil	127	10.6	Exports strong, supplies ample
China	282	209	Largest importer; steady demand

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 🔒 For Local Traders: Short-term firmness likely as market arrivals remain below normal. Hold stocks but sell portions on spikes above $30/quintal.
• 🏭 Feed Buyers: Secure short-term contracts for critical needs. Monitor for price dips if clear weather boosts arrivals next week.
• 🌧️ Producers: Prepare post-harvest handling infrastructure for rapid drying once weather stabilizes. Avoid holding unstored, wet corn for long periods.
• 🌍 Exporters: Remain cautious—limited Indian export advantage amid cheap global supplies. Focus on domestic opportunities until arrivals improve and global prices rebound.

⏩ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region/Exchange	Expected Range	Forecast Direction
Haryana Mandi	$29.30–$29.80/quintal	Firm to Slightly Up
Uttar Pradesh	$27.00–$29.00/quintal	Firm
National Average	$28.00–$30.00/quintal	Supported, risk of spike if drying delays persist
Paris (FOB)	€0.24–€0.26/kg	Neutral
Odesa (FOB)	€0.19–€0.21/kg	Stable