India’s onion market, a vital segment of the nation’s agricultural economy, faces acute distress this season. In the heartland of onion cultivation—Pune district, Maharashtra—weeks of relentless rainfall have shattered the expectations of thousands of growers. With around half of all stored onions in key districts like Junnar and Shirur ruined by moisture and rot, the usual seasonal strategy of storing onions for sale during the monsoon—and thus securing higher returns—has failed. Instead, farm-gate prices remain stagnant at Rs 1,200–Rs 1,500 per quintal (roughly €14–€18 per 100 kg), leaving growers without compensation for steep investment and hard labor.
The loss is especially harsh for smallholders and medium-scale farmers, many of whom invested heavily in storage infrastructure. As demand for government intervention grows, the prospect of a widespread supply squeeze looms large. This disruption in India’s leading onion state reverberates through national and global supply chains, with potential implications for prices, consumer inflation, and availability well beyond India’s borders. Unless weather and policy shift markedly, the market outlook remains deeply uncertain—and the risk of further volatility is high.
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Onions fried
crispy freid onions
FCA 3.42 €/kg
(from PL)
Onion powder
grade - B
FOB 1.31 €/kg
(from IN)
Onion powder
white
FOB 1.58 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices: Latest Onion and Derived Products Market Quotes
| Product | Origin | Type | Location | Delivery Terms | Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Price (EUR/kg) | Last Update | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Onions fried | PL | Crispy fried | Lodz, PL | FCA | 3.42 | 3.42 | 2025-09-22 | Neutral |
| Onion powder | IN | Grade – B | New Delhi, IN | FOB | 1.29 | 1.29 | 2025-09-19 | Neutral |
| Onion powder | IN | White | New Delhi, IN | FOB | 1.56 | 1.56 | 2025-09-19 | Neutral |
| Onion (Organic, powder) | IN | Organic Powder | New Delhi, IN | FOB | 2.64 | 2.64 | 2025-09-19 | Neutral |
| Onion (Fresh) | EG | Fresh | Cairo, EG | FOB | 0.78 | 0.78 | 2025-09-19 | Neutral |
| Onion (flakes, Organic) | IN | Flakes, Organic | New Delhi, IN | FOB | 5.11 | 5.11 | 2025-09-19 | Neutral |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Severe Storage Losses: Up to 50% of stored onions spoiled in Maharashtra due to heavy rains, drastically cutting available market supplies.
- Dampened Farmer Sentiment: Financial losses and stagnant prices threaten future planting intentions as many growers lack capital for a new cropping cycle.
- Government Intervention: Farmer groups are calling for urgent compensation and price stabilization schemes; no significant government response yet.
- Low Farm-Gate Prices: Despite reduced stocks, prices have not risen to offset losses, leaving growers under severe pressure.
- Potential National Impact: Maharashtra’s output drop may soon be felt in other consuming regions and in export markets reliant on Indian onions.
📊 Fundamentals: Production, Stocks, and Speculative Factors
| Country | Production (latest, million tonnes) | Major Stock Changes | Import/Export Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | ~26.7* | Sharp stock losses (up to 50% in some areas) | Major exporter—reduced surplus likely |
| China | ~23.0 | Stable | Significant exporter |
| Egypt | ~2.5 | Stable | Exporter |
| EU | ~6.0 | Stable | Importer |
| USA | ~3.7 | Stable | Importer |
*Pre-loss estimate; actual available stocks are likely much lower for India.
🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact Analysis
- India: Heavy rains forecast to subside over Maharashtra and North India in the next 7 days, but humidity remains elevated—risk of ongoing storage spoilage persists.
- Egypt: Stable, warm-dry weather supports current crop development.
- EU: Moderate weather favorable for northern onion crops; no major disruptors expected short-term.
Effect: In India, risk of further quality deterioration remains, somewhat mitigated if drying conditions improve in late September. Global markets may see tightening supplies and firmer prices through autumn if the output deficit grows.
🌍 Global Market & Inventory Comparison
- India’s 2024-2025 exportable surplus expected to shrink sharply.
- Egypt and China likely to see stable or rising demand from South Asia, Middle East, and Europe.
- Major importers (EU, Gulf, Southeast Asia) monitoring situation; some have started sourcing alternatives from Egypt and China.
📆 Market Outlook & Recommendations
- Expect upward price pressure in India and major importing countries over Q4 2025 if supply losses persist and substitution demand hikes global trade.
- Fresh onion prices in Egypt stable now but could rise if Indian deficit spills into global markets.
- Stakeholders advised to monitor Indian policy changes (minimum export price, subsidies, or bans), which could disrupt international flows.
- Suppliers: Secure export logistics early and diversify sources, especially toward Egypt, China.
- Importers: Hedge purchases with contracts for Q4 and consider stock build where possible.
- Producers: Invest in better storage infrastructure and consider insurance or forward contracts for future seasons.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Exchange/Location | Product | Current Price (EUR/kg) | Forecast (in 3 days) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Indian Wholesale Markets | Fresh Onion | ~0.16* | 0.17 – 0.18 | Bullish |
| Lodz, PL | Crispy Fried Onions | 3.42 | 3.42 – 3.48 | Stable to Slightly Bullish |
| New Delhi, IN (Export) | Onion Powder/Flakes | 1.29 – 5.11 | Unchanged | Neutral |
| Cairo, EG (Export) | Fresh Onion | 0.78 | 0.78 – 0.80 | Stable |
*Indian prices converted from INR to EUR, reflecting current wholesale markets. Actual retail/export may differ.
