Indian Apple Market Faces Tensions: Price Pressure and Policy Demands Amid Global Competition

The Indian apple market, a cornerstone of the country’s horticultural output, is currently navigating a tense period as domestic growers raise their voices in the face of mounting international competition and rising input costs. Protests spearheaded by the Jammu and Kashmir Apple Farmers Federation have brought to center stage the demand for a 100% import duty on US apples, citing unfair competition and urging the government to act swiftly to protect local producers. Calls for comprehensive crop insurance and policy support underline a landscape fraught with recurring crop failures, pest infestations, and mounting indebtedness among orchardists, particularly in key production zones like Kulgam and Shopian.

Parallel to these protests, the apple market is contending with price volatility driven by shifting import policies, subdued global demand, and the persistent threat of extreme weather patterns, which add layers of uncertainty as the 2024/25 marketing year approaches. Meanwhile, recent pricing trends for dried apples in European markets suggest modest declines, potentially reflecting subdued demand or oversupply from leading exporters such as China. As the sector awaits clearer government signals on tariffs, insurance reforms, and support schemes, the outlook for Indian apple growers hinges on the resolution of these policy uncertainties and the volatile interplay of global and local market forces.

📈 Prices

Product	Origin	Location	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change (EUR/kg)	Market Sentiment
Apple dried Cubes 5-7 mm	CN	NL (Dordrecht)	4.70	-0.05	Bearish
Apple dried Cubes 8-10 mm	CN	NL (Dordrecht)	4.60	-0.05	Bearish
Apple dried Cubes 10-12 mm	CN	NL (Dordrecht)	4.67	-0.05	Bearish

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Indian Protests & Import Policy: Widespread farmer protests in Jammu and Kashmir are pressuring Indian policymakers to increase tariffs on imported US apples, with industry leaders viewing this as a necessary defensive measure against “unfair competition.” Policy decisions in the coming weeks are poised to recalibrate import flows into India and could further reshape domestic supply-demand dynamics.
• Crop Failures and Insurance Gaps: Farmers report repeated crop failures due to extreme weather, pest outbreaks, and market volatility—intensifying calls for robust crop insurance and financial support. India’s leading orchard zones are particularly vulnerable to rainfall variability, hail, and other erratic weather events.
• Global Trade Dynamics: Weakness in EU dried apple prices suggests reduced demand or an oversupplied global market, especially with major Chinese volumes flowing into Europe. A negative sentiment prevails, with minor declines recorded across product sizes.
• Speculative Positioning: Amid policy uncertainty, speculative interest in Indian apples remains muted, with traders waiting for clarity on tariffs before taking significant positions for the new marketing year.

📊 Fundamentals

• Policy Developments: Government responsiveness to grower demands—such as revival of the Market Intervention Scheme and direct incentives for high-density plantation—remains essential. Policy outcomes will heavily influence future planting decisions and supply resilience.
• Credit & Cost Pressures: Rising electricity tariffs, input prices, and loan burdens contribute to financial strain in India’s main apple-growing regions; calls for relief measures and expanded Kisan Credit Card waivers are likely to persist.
• Production & Stocks: China remains the world’s dominant apple producer and exporter, with India and the US as seasonal secondaries. Domestic stocks in India are reportedly tighter than average after crop losses, but imports are being closely scrutinized.

🌤️ Weather Outlook

• Jammu & Kashmir: Scattered rainfall and mild temperatures dominate the three-day outlook for the region, with isolated hail risk in upland valleys. While these conditions offer short-term relief from heat stress, any significant rainfall could disrupt early harvests or increase disease pressure for late-maturing varieties.
• Himachal Pradesh & Uttarakhand: Mild, stable weather is expected, supporting ongoing orchard operations. No major frost or drought concerns are forecast in the immediate term.
• Global Weather (EU & CN): Stable conditions persist across European orchard belts and northern Chinese provinces, with moderate temperatures favoring continued harvest and export preparations.

🌏 Global Production & Stocks Comparison

Country	2023/24 Production (est., 1,000 MT)	2023/24 Stocks (est., 1,000 MT)	2024/25 Outlook
China	45,000	16,000	Steady but high inventories
India	2,600	350	Slightly lower after weather events
USA	4,700	700	Stable, focus on exports
EU	11,200	1,900	Mixed, stable yields but softer demand

💡 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Indian traders: Adopt a wait-and-watch approach until clarity on tariff hikes emerges. Stock up modestly on domestic fruit but avoid overextending positions in imported apples until policy signals are confirmed.
• European buyers: Take advantage of slightly weaker prices for dried apples but monitor input costs as Chinese offerings remain plentiful in NL and elsewhere.
• Producers in India: Engage with policy forums to secure favorable reforms, especially expanded insurance and intervention schemes.
• Global exporters: Prepare for possible disruptions or longer lead times in the Indian market if new duties are enacted.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Product	Region/Exchange	Current Price (EUR/kg)	3-Day Forecast (EUR/kg)	Trend
Apple dried Cubes 5-7 mm	NL (Dordrecht)	4.70	4.66 – 4.72	Stable/Weak
Apple dried Cubes 8-10 mm	NL (Dordrecht)	4.60	4.56 – 4.62	Stable/Weak
Apple dried Cubes 10-12 mm	NL (Dordrecht)	4.67	4.63 – 4.69	Stable/Weak