Until Friday, when the market for Cumin went on a bit of a bearish mode the entire month, it had been on fire. So, far there has been good domestic and international demand for the spice, which has supported the price in the spot markets across India in January.
Current Scenario
The demand has been steady, which has kept the market firm across the month. One of the major factors that have helped in the price being bullish for Cumin and its varieties is the decline in the overall production of the crop. Also, the decreased arrival of the spice in the market, which was almost 30 per cent due to the Makar Sankranti, helped the prices to become appreciative.
Furthermore, the news of crop damage in Gujarat due to excessive rain and farmers moving towards planting other crops like mustard and castor in Gujarat and Rajasthan is likely to impact the price of the spice positively. In addition, there is a report of Rajasthan cutting down the Cumin sowing area by 30 per cent.
The other factor that is likely to affect India’s Cumin market is the export rules imposed by 35 countries. In addition, many Cumin importation countries have set different regulations on Indian Cumin due to the presence of pesticides.
However, the farmers and traders are not much concerned about it since the major Cumin-producing countries worldwide also have reduced production due to bad weather. As a result, it is believed these 35 countries will eventually look towards India to fulfil their order of Cumin.
The spot market price of Cumin in Unjha, the base market for the spice was, increased by 34 per cent in the last six months. The price was quoted at $2447.90 per MT compared to $1823.90 per MT. Compared to January last year, the price of Cumin was higher by 42 per cent.
Also, the future of Cumin is trading higher than the spot market as the NCDEX quoted the price at $2599.30 per MT for March and $2611.30 per MT for April.
After February 15, new crops will start arriving in the market sporadically. The exact estimate of new arrivals in the market will be available from March onwards.
Prediction
The market price is likely to surge given the lowering of the sowing area and the news of crop damage. However, few naysayers predict that there won’t be any increase in the price of Cumin despite the above reasons and lack of international demand due to the rules imposed by the importing countries. However, viewing the current trend and other global factors like lowering of production of Cumin in China, the chances of Indian Cumin price increasing is quite significant in the coming days.
The domestic and international demand will also increase for the spice in the coming months with the arrival of Ramadan in April.
The demand in the market will determine the overall trend for Cumin. It can sometimes become bearish when the prices go up, and the buying activity slows down due to the high price, as happened on January 30. But the overall trend is likely to remain positive for the spice.
Price Trend For January
Cumin A Grade 99% Pure
| Date | Price |
| January 27 | $2,275 per kg FOB |
| January 25 | $2,270 per kg FOB |
| January 24 | $2,265 per kg FOB |
| January 20 | $2,255 per kg FOB |
| January 11 | $2,220 per kg FOB |
The month started at $2,19 per kg FOB and ended at $2,27 per kg FOB after a single drop at $2,22 per kg FOB. Rest of the month, the graph was upward for Cumin.