Indian Exports Set to Dominate as Bangladesh Sparks Rice Market Rally

The rice market is entering a pivotal phase, driven by Bangladesh’s unusually large and early procurement plan that reshapes supply and demand ahead of the crucial Amon harvest. India, which accounts for nearly half of global rice exports, stands as the clear beneficiary due to its proximity, consistent output, and highly competitive prices. Bangladeshi authorities, aiming to pre-empt supply disruptions from ongoing flooding and crop risks, have announced plans to import 900,000 tons of rice. Of these, 400,000 tons will be sourced by the government and 500,000 tons by private traders.

This massive demand spike arrives while Bangladesh also intensifies its rice subsidy initiative, geared to support over 5.5 million families. The Indian rice sector—led by West Bengal and neighboring states—is poised for significant gains, particularly for popular varieties such as Swarna, Miniket, Ratna, and Sona Masoori. Industry experts predict prompt price rises, with domestic and international offers expected to remain firm. Vietnamese exporters are also watching closely, though the momentum is decidedly with India, whose port cities like Visakhapatnam and Paradip are set for increased activity. Against this backdrop, weather risks, government policies, and shifting inventories will determine just how high prices can climb in the weeks ahead.

📈 Prices

Type	Origin	Location	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Long, white, 5%	VN	Hanoi	FOB	0.60	0.60	0%	Steady
Jasmine	VN	Hanoi	FOB	0.62	0.62	0%	Steady
Paper dried	VN	Hanoi	FOB	1.95	1.95	0%	Steady/High
All golden, sella	IN	New Delhi	FOB	1.06	1.05	+0.9%	Firm
All steam, pr11	IN	New Delhi	FOB	0.57	0.56	+1.8%	Firm
White, non basmati (organic)	IN	New Delhi	FOB	1.62	1.61	+0.6%	Firm
White, basmati (organic)	IN	New Delhi	FOB	1.92	1.91	+0.5%	Firm

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Bangladesh will import 900,000 tonnes rice (400kt via tenders, 500kt via private trade).
• Indian exporters expect to capture a majority due to proximity and price competitiveness, especially for Swarna, Miniket, Ratna, Sona Masoori varieties.
• West Bengal anticipated to supply up to 40% of private import volumes; other key Indian states: Jharkhand, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Bihar.
• Bangladesh has procured 376,000 tonnes Boro paddy and 950,000 tonnes rice to meet its 1.4 million tonne target by mid-August.
• Subsidy program (Aug–Nov, Feb–Mar): 5.5 million families, 30kg/month at Tk 15/kg (~$0.13/kg).
• India maintains its foothold, accounting for ~46% of global exports.

📊 Fundamentals

• Inventory: India’s stocks remain healthy, but persistent demand from Bangladesh may tighten supplies for low-to-medium grades.
• Speculation: Bullish sentiment among Indian exporters and Bengal traders; moderate speculation on further price rises, especially for Swarna and Miniket.
• External Influences: Weather uncertainty in Bangladesh (Amon season rains), food policies, and freight availability shape outlook.

⛅ Weather Outlook

• Bangladesh: Excessive rainfall threatens Amon paddy, raising concerns about output and favoring imports.
• India (West Bengal, neighboring states): Rainfall normal to above-normal, ensuring paddy transplanting but raising risk of localized flooding.
• Vietnam: Wet season underway, field reports suggest generally favorable conditions though minor delays reported regionally.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	Production (2024E, mln tonnes)	Stock (2024E, mln tonnes)	Export Share (%)
India	127	32	46
Vietnam	44	8	15
Thailand	28	8	13
Bangladesh	38	2-3	–

📌 Market Drivers

• Bangladesh import demand to cover possible flood losses in Amon season.
• Indian government and private participation in Bangladeshi procurement tenders.
• Rising domestic prices for key Indian varieties as export interest grows.
• Weather-driven concerns about short-term supply interruptions in both India and Bangladesh.
• Government interventions and continued food subsidy programs supporting demand.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 📈 Bullish near-term outlook on low-to-medium grade Indian rice (Swarna, Miniket, Sona Masoori)—exporters should secure contracts quickly.
• 🔥 Upward price momentum expected: Swarna may reach ₹31–₹32/kg; Miniket could test ₹45/kg within weeks.
• ⚠️ Monitor weather closely; flooding and rain disruptions may tighten supplies further.
• 🔄 End buyers in Bangladesh and the Middle East are advised to advance procurement to avoid further price hikes.
• 🤝 Vietnam origin rice remains price competitive for premium types, but Indian grades are in the driver’s seat for now.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Origin	Current Price (EUR/kg)	3-Day Forecast (EUR/kg)	Trend
VN, Long, white, 5%	0.60	0.60–0.62	Stable/Firm
IN, All steam, pr11	0.57	0.58–0.60	Rising
IN, Swarna Mansoori (bulk price)	~0.35 (USD)	0.39 (USD)	Rising
IN, Miniket	~0.49–0.51 (USD)	0.54 (USD)	Rising

Summary: Rice market strength is expected to persist in the short term, led by strong Bangladeshi demand and supportive Indian fundamentals. Market participants should monitor weather risks and government tenders for further direction.