Indian Pea Market Faces Pressure Amid Duty-Free Imports and Policy Uncertainty

The global peas market is undergoing significant volatility, with India—a key consumer and producer—at the heart of current developments. Indian agriculture officials have voiced mounting concerns regarding the government’s ongoing duty-free import policy for peas, warning it could have far-reaching implications for both domestic producers and the broader rabi sowing season.

Duty-free imports now make up 28–30% of the country’s total pea consumption, a figure that has intensified competition from major exporting countries such as Canada, Russia, and Ukraine. For Indian farmers, already burdened by escalating production costs, this influx of cheaper foreign peas is proving to be more than a price issue; it is directly threatening local production as growers contemplate scaling back acreage, particularly in critical producing states like Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and Bihar. Such dynamics, if left unchecked, could deepen India’s reliance on imports and further suppress farmgate prices, thereby undermining food security and rural livelihoods. As the 2025 season approaches, the market’s direction hinges on both government policy decisions and external supply-demand dynamics, leaving stakeholders bracing for another period of uncertainty and possible price pressure.

📈 Price Overview

Product	Type	Origin	Location	Price (€/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Peas dried	Marrowfat	GB	London	1.34	0%	Stable
Peas dried	Green	GB	London	1.02	0%	Stable
Peas dried	Yellow (98% purity)	UA	Odesa	0.31	0%	Stable
Peas dried	Green (98% purity)	UA	Odesa	0.43	0%	Stable
Peas dried	Yellow (98% purity)	PL	Kiełczygłow	0.35	-5.4%	Weak

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics

• India’s Consumption: Estimated at ~3 million tonnes/year.
• 2023–24 India Production: 2.5 million tonnes.
• 2023–24 Imports: 800,000 tonnes (26.6% of total consumption).
• Import Origins: Predominantly Canada, Russia, Ukraine.
• Import Policy: Continued duty-free status is reducing domestic demand and putting pressure on local prices.
• Outlook: If duty-free imports persist, India could see reduced sowing for 2024–25 and greater dependence on foreign supplies.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Trade Policy: Duty-free pea imports into India are the dominant short-term driver. If maintained, expect further downward pressure on prices and acreage.
• Production Costs: High input and labor costs for Indian farmers raise the break-even threshold, making them less competitive versus imported product.
• Global Competition: Strong supply and favorable export pricing from Canada, Russia, and Ukraine exert downward pressure on global and Indian prices.
• Speculation & Stocks: With comfortable global stock levels and subdued speculative activity, volatility remains low.

☁️ Weather Outlook and Crop Impact

• India (main production zones): Forecasts predict near-normal monsoon withdrawal in September, but patchy rain may slightly delay rabi soil preparation in some states.
• Canada & Russia: Recent rains have boosted late-sown pea crop potential, with above-average yields expected in the western Canadian prairies and southern Russia.
• Ukraine: Favorable growing and harvesting conditions continue, supporting exportable surpluses in 2024–25.

📦 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2023–24 Production (MT)	Imports (MT)	Stocks (MT)	Import Dependency
India	2.5M	0.8M	0.6M (est.)	~27%
Canada	3.6M	—	0.7M	—
Russia	2.2M	—	0.4M	—
Ukraine	0.9M	—	0.15M	—

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 📉 Short-term: Price downside risk persists with ongoing duty-free imports and ample global stocks.
• 📊 Monitor Indian Policy: Any move to reintroduce import tariffs could rapidly shift sentiment and spark local price recovery.
• ✨ Buyers: Favorable time to cover forward needs from origins with stable supply (especially Ukraine and Poland, given current price dips).
• ⚠️ Growers/Exporters: Consider hedging strategies and avoiding over-committing unsold inventory while Indian policy remains in flux.
• 🌾 Watch Weather: Weather remains supportive globally, but any late monsoon disruptions could alter Indian production expectations quickly.

⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Location	Type	Current Price (€/kg)	3-Day Outlook
London, GB	Marrowfat	1.34	Stable
London, GB	Green	1.02	Stable
Odesa, UA	Yellow 98%	0.31	Stable