Indian Pea Market Softens: Duty-Free Imports and Production Challenges Reshape Global Sentiment

The Indian pea market is navigating turbulent waters, marked by a policy-driven price slump and complex supply-demand dynamics. India’s extension of the duty-free import window until March 2026 has fundamentally altered the market structure, triggering aggressive stock sales at ports and a sharply bearish sentiment among traders. While this provides consumers and processors with lower prices in the short term, it’s a tough blow for speculators and domestic growers. Despite higher sowing this year, most white pea acreage shifted to fresh vegetable markets, resulting in only a fraction reaching dry pulse channels. Meanwhile, weather disruptions and rotation to higher-value vegetable crops further whittled down dry pea output, especially across key states like Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh. Canada, a significant supplier, faces its own inventory crunch but spot prices have risen slightly against a global backdrop of steady demand—except in India, where prices have dropped again following the government’s import policy extension. Estimated imports into India are robust, but domestic stocks remain thin after rapid consumption. With these cross-currents in play, the outlook calls for steadiness in prices, barring weather surprises or further policy shifts. The opportunity for major price rebounds is limited, but volatility persists as exporters and importers recalibrate their strategies in response to India’s evolving stance.

📈 Prices at a Glance

Type	Origin	Location	Price (USD/kg)	Prev. Price (USD/kg)	Update Date	Market Sentiment
Marrowfat	GB	London	1.28	1.28	2025-05-30	Stable
Green	GB	London	0.96	0.96	2025-05-30	Stable
Yellow (98%)	PL	Kiełczygłow	0.36	0.37	2025-05-28	Bearing slight downside
Yellow (98%)	UA	Odesa	0.32	0.34	2025-05-23	Bearish
Green (98%)	UA	Odesa	0.50	0.50	2025-05-23	Stable
White (port, India)	IN	Major ports	0.40	0.43	2025-06-03*	Bearish
Cleaned (WHL, India)	IN	Domestic	0.45 – 0.47	0.49	2025-06-03*	Weakened

*Dates marked as latest available, based on market data and reports up to June 2025.

🌍 Supply & Demand Overview

• Duty-free pea imports into India extended until March 2026; importers quickly liquidated 75–80% of port stocks at discounted rates.
• Production of dry white peas in India remains just 10–12% of overall white pea cultivation; the rest diverted for fresh vegetable consumption.
• Estimated imports: 2.2–2.3 million metric tons this season; 1.8–1.9 million metric tons already consumed.
• Canada, a key exporter, holds old stock but rising spot shipment prices (+USD 15-20/ton) reflect demand from other global buyers as India’s demand softens.
• Domestic pulse prices in India under broad pressure: black gram, green gram, pigeon pea, lentils, and chickpeas also trending lower.

📊 Market Drivers & Fundamentals

• Government Policy: India’s extension of the duty-free import window drastically increased domestic supply and led to short-term price falls.
• Acreage Shift: More white pea land dedicated to vegetables versus dry peas due to weather, crop rotation, and price incentives.
• Weather: Adverse sowing conditions in Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh (warmer winter, low soil moisture), limiting yield potential for dry peas.
• Global Inventories: Canadian carry-over stocks are tightening but offset by softer Indian demand; Europe and Ukraine offer competitive prices for yellow and green peas.
• Speculation: Small traders incur losses on short-term bets amid unexpected policy shifts and import-driven price corrections.

🌦️ Weather Outlook in Key Growing Regions

• India (Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh): Poor winter moisture and erratic rainfall during critical sowing windows have resulted in lower-than-normal yields, though the current short-term forecast offers no major weather threats for late-harvested stocks.
• Canada (Prairies): Recent reports suggest adequate early summer rainfall, improving yield prospects after past dryness, but localized storm risks persist.
• Ukraine/Europe: Favourable weather has maintained solid yield expectations, supporting exportable surpluses.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2024/25 Prod. (MMT)	2024/25 Ending Stocks (MMT)	Key Notes
India	~0.35*	Very low	Most area shifted to vegetables; high import dependency
Canada	~3.2	Moderate	Stocks down, prices up $15–20/t on steady demand
Russia	~2.5	Moderate	Active in yellow peas market
Ukraine	~0.8	Stable	Competitive pricing, decent yields
EU	~2.0	Stable	Good crop prospects
China	~1.2	N/A	Rising imports, especially for feed

*Indian dry pea production estimated; significant downward revision over last year.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Expect Indian prices to remain range-bound near current levels, with further large declines unlikely due to tight domestic stocks and steady consumption.
• Importers should capitalize on the duty-free window but monitor global supply tightness, especially as Canadian inventories dwindle and freight costs remain volatile.
• Domestic Indian processors encouraged to secure supply as soon as possible, given limited dry harvest volumes and higher reliance on imports.
• Exporters to India are advised to remain competitive with FOB pricing, but hedge against possible further Indian policy changes or new competitors (e.g., implications from large Ukrainian/European crops).
• Traders should limit speculative short positions after recent bearish corrections—focus on value-based trade and longer-term procurement contracts.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

• London (GB, Marrowfat/Green Peas): USD 1.26–1.29/kg (Flat; moderate interest, tight volume)
• Odesa (UA, Yellow/Green Peas): USD 0.31–0.33/kg (Stable to slightly lower, pressure from new crop forward sales)
• Kiełczygłow (PL, Yellow Peas): USD 0.35–0.36/kg (Stable; adequate supply, follow-up export demand to S/SE Europe)
• India (Ports, White Peas): USD 0.39–0.41/kg (Stable; bearish momentum waning, import window supporting supply)