The global peanut market is grappling with fresh volatility as a major export corridor faces disruption. Indonesia, one of the largest importers of Indian peanuts, has abruptly suspended all purchases citing repeated violations of international aflatoxin standards. This development lands at the start of the Indian peak trading season and directly affects trade flow, farmer incomes—especially in key producing states like Gujarat—and India’s competitive standing against major exporters like Argentina and the U.S. For Indonesia, the move is more than symbolic; with annual Indian inflows of 1.1–1.2 million tons—worth nearly USD 1 billion—now cut off, both buyers and sellers are making urgent adjustments.
Domestic price softening has already begun for Indian peanuts due to anticipated excess supply, while global importers may look to South America or the U.S. to fill gaps. Quality control and government intervention are now center stage, as India races to repair its export reputation and avoid long-term erosion of market share. For traders and end users, the shake-up offers both risk and opportunity, with price dynamics shifting across the board.
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Peanuts
roasted split, 60/70/80
FOB 1.14 €/kg
(from IN)
Peanuts
birdfeed
CFR 1.04 €/kg
(from IN)
Peanuts
raw
FOB 1.29 €/kg
(from BR)
📈 Current Market Prices
| Type | Origin | Location | Delivery Terms | Latest Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change (%) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roasted split, 60/70/80 | India | New Delhi | FOB | 1.14 | 1.15 | -0.87% | Bearish |
| Birdfeed | India | New Delhi | CFR | 1.04 | 1.05 | -0.95% | Bearish |
| Raw | Brazil | Brasília | FOB | 1.29 | 1.30 | -0.77% | Stable |
| Java 70-80 | India | New Delhi | FOB | 1.03 | 1.04 | -0.96% | Bearish |
| Java 60-70 | India | New Delhi | FOB | 1.01 | 1.02 | -0.98% | Bearish |
| Java 50-60 | India | New Delhi | FOB | 1.09 | 1.10 | -0.91% | Bearish |
| Bold 60-70 | India | New Delhi | FOB | 1.01 | 1.02 | -0.98% | Bearish |
| Bold 50-60 | India | New Delhi | FOB | 1.03 | 1.04 | -0.96% | Bearish |
| Bold 40-50 | India | Gujarat – Gondal | FOB | 1.05 | 1.06 | -0.94% | Bearish |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Export disruption: Indonesia’s sudden ban on Indian peanuts due to aflatoxin contamination has removed the top market for India, causing an immediate oversupply in domestic markets and forcing Indian sellers to seek alternatives.
- Competitor advantage: Argentina and the U.S. are likely to see increased demand from Indonesia, strengthening their market share at India’s expense.
- Quality compliance: Indonesia enforces CAC aflatoxin limits at 15 ppb; Indian exporters’ violation of this threshold led to the halt.
- Peak season impact: The ban coincides with harvest and export peak, amplifying the shock to India’s supply chain and farmer incomes—especially in Gujarat, which supplies ~70% of Indian exports.
📊 Fundamental Analysis
- Price reaction: Across all Indian peanut classes, prices softened by around 0.9–1% this week, reflecting reduced export confidence and looming inventories.
- Speculative sentiment: Traders are cautious, with risk premia building for any future India-bound contracts.
- Government response: Calls are growing for stricter farm- and processor-level aflatoxin checks and urgent government diplomacy.
- Stock situation: With Indonesian demand frozen, Indian carryout stocks are expected to rise unless alternative markets are developed rapidly.
🌦 Weather Outlook
- India (Gujarat): Current monsoon rains are near average, supporting crop development. However, high humidity risks increased aflatoxin contamination unless rigorous sun-drying and storage protocols are enforced. Weather remains favorable for a good yield but vigilance is needed until harvest completion.
- Argentina & U.S.: Weather is mostly supportive in key regions, with no major stress reported. This supports higher output availability from alternate origins for the Indonesian market.
🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2024 Production (est, mn tons) | Major Export Markets | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 6.6 | Indonesia, Vietnam, EU, China | Main source for Indonesia; facing reputation risk |
| China | 17.5 | Domestic, some Asia/EU | Largest producer, low direct export |
| Argentina | 1.6 | EU, Indonesia, Russia | Prime alternative for premium buyers |
| U.S. | 2.5 | Domestic, Canada, Indonesia | Reliable high-quality exporter |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Indian sellers should prioritize quality assurance and push for prompt diplomatic engagement.
- Expect continued price softness in Indian origin peanuts unless alternative export routes open quickly.
- Global buyers may consider short/medium-term contracts with Argentina or the U.S. until clarity returns in India.
- Monitor weather risk in India for further aflatoxin-related disruptions through harvest.
- For end users needing volume, expect improved bargaining power with Indian grades, but check all quality certifications.
⏩ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Origin | Type | Current Price (EUR/kg) | Forecast Trend (next 3 days) |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | Roasted split, 60/70/80 | 1.14 | ⬇ Slight further softening expected as export ban solidifies |
| India | Birdfeed | 1.04 | ⬇ Weakness likely, slow new international demand |
| Brazil | Raw | 1.29 | ⏸ Stable, potential upside if Indonesian orders move to Brazil |
