India’s peanut market is at a key juncture as Gujarat, the nation’s engine of groundnut production, eyes a potential record harvest for the 2025-26 Kharif season. Driven by a significant expansion in cultivation, preliminary estimates put output at an unprecedented 66 lakh tonnes, marking a notable 26% rise from last year’s 52.2 lakh tonnes. This development holds profound implications for both Indian farmers and the global peanut trade, as India aims to bolster edible oil output and reduce import reliance.
However, the bullish harvest outlook is tempered by challenges: torrential rains and flooding in Banaskantha, Patan, and Kutch have raised fears of local yield losses and complicated the post-flood recovery. In response, the Gujarat government has extended farmer registration deadlines for Minimum Support Price (MSP) procurement—a move designed to mitigate price shocks and support rural incomes. Meanwhile, market prices for Indian and Brazilian peanuts have shown a mild dip in recent weeks, reflecting the interplay of anticipated bumper supply, logistical uncertainties, and cautious buying. The coming weeks will prove crucial: weather patterns and crop recovery will determine whether the market realizes its full production potential or faces a reversal in fortunes. This comprehensive analysis unpacks price movements, supply-demand factors, weather risks, and actionable market outlooks as India’s peanut sector navigates these pivotal weeks.
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Peanuts
roasted split, 60/70/80
FOB 1.09 €/kg
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Peanuts
birdfeed
CFR 0.99 €/kg
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Peanuts
raw
FOB 1.24 €/kg
(from BR)
📈 Prices
| Type | Origin | Delivery Terms | Current Price (€/kg) | Previous Price (€/kg) | Update Date | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roasted Split 60/70/80 | IN (New Delhi) | FOB | 1.11 | 1.12 | 2025-09-12 | Softening |
| Birdfeed | IN (New Delhi) | CFR | 1.01 | 1.02 | 2025-09-12 | Softening |
| Raw | BR (Brasília) | FOB | 1.26 | 1.27 | 2025-09-12 | Softening |
| Java 70-80 | IN (New Delhi) | FOB | 1.00 | 1.01 | 2025-09-12 | Stable/Softening |
| Java 60-70 | IN (New Delhi) | FOB | 0.98 | 0.99 | 2025-09-12 | Stable/Softening |
| Java 50-60 | IN (New Delhi) | FOB | 1.06 | 1.07 | 2025-09-12 | Stable/Softening |
| Bold 60-70 | IN (New Delhi) | FOB | 0.98 | 0.99 | 2025-09-12 | Stable/Softening |
| Bold 50-60 | IN (New Delhi) | FOB | 1.00 | 1.01 | 2025-09-12 | Stable/Softening |
| Bold 40-50 | IN (Gujarat – Gondal) | FOB | 1.02 | 1.03 | 2025-09-12 | Stable/Softening |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Gujarat’s output surge: Plantings have reached 22 lakh hectares (up 15%), supporting record harvest projections.
- Flood impact: Rain-induced flooding in Banaskantha, Patan, and Kutch threatens localized yield losses, with ground reports indicating persistent waterlogging.
- Government MSP procurement: The state expects procurement volumes to match last year (>12.2 lakh tonnes), cushioning market risks for farmers.
- National outlook: India’s push for oilseed self-sufficiency could moderate imports and cap price volatility if Gujarat’s crop comes through.
- Global market: Ample Indian supply and soft international prices may pressure exporters, though competitive pricing could stimulate birdfeed and roasting grade exports, especially to Southeast Asia and Europe.
📊 Fundamentals
- Acreage Expansion: 22 lakh ha (2025-26) vs 19.1 lakh ha (2024-25) (+15%).
- Production Estimate (Gujarat): 66 lakh tonnes (2025-26 Kharif) vs 52.2 lakh tonnes (2024-25).
- Procurement (2024-25): 12.22 lakh tonnes (record); similar volume expected in 2025-26.
- Edible oil policy: Government focus on reducing import dependency could see renewed policy support and market intervention if prices dip sharply.
- Speculative activity: Cautious. Traders waiting for clarity post-flood.
🌦️ Weather Update & Outlook
- Flooded districts: Banaskantha, Patan, Kutch—farmers report partial field damage, delayed harvest, and potential aflatoxin risk due to prolonged waterlogging.
- Recovery window: Dry weather is needed in coming 2-3 weeks to preserve yield potential. Any further heavy rain could worsen crop losses.
- 7-day forecast: Scattered showers expected in North Gujarat (Banaskantha/Kutch), mostly dry in Saurashtra, aiding field drain-off and crop recovery.
🌏 Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2024 Production (mn t) | 2025F Production (mn t) | Stock Change | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| India | ~9.9 | 10.7 (est.) | Higher | Record expected; watch post-flood adjustment |
| China | 16.0 | 16.2 | Stable | Stable demand; large exporter |
| United States | 2.8 | 2.7 | Slightly lower | Smaller crop |
| Argentina | 1.2 | 1.1 | Stable | Some drought effect |
| Nigeria | 4.0 | 4.1 | Higher | Rising steadily |
📌 Trading Outlook & Advice
- Buyers: Spot and forward purchases at current softening prices could be attractive, but watch for quality issues in flood-affected Indian lots.
- Exporters: Hedge against possible late reversal in crop estimates due to local weather; Indian peanuts may be well-priced for birdfeed and roasting grades.
- Speculators: Hold positions and await clearer post-flood crop assessment; volatility expected as weather risk is still unresolved.
- Importers: Consider phased buying—ample supply likely, but disruptions or downgrades could tighten premium quality grades later in the season.
- Processors: Monitor aflatoxin and quality reports in coming weeks; pricing opportunity for crush if MSP procurement lags or quality concerns grow.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Indian Market)
| Date | Peanut FOB (New Delhi, €/kg) | Birdfeed CFR (€/kg) | Brazil Raw FOB (€/kg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-13 | 1.10–1.12 | 1.00–1.02 | 1.25–1.27 |
| 2025-09-14 | 1.10–1.12 | 1.00–1.02 | 1.25–1.27 |
| 2025-09-15 | 1.10–1.12 | 1.00–1.02 | 1.24–1.26 |