Indian Peanuts Market Stabilizes Amid Mixed Regional Trends and Weather Swings

The Indian peanuts (groundnuts) market is navigating a season marked by contrasting regional developments and shifting weather patterns. Gujarat – India’s groundnut powerhouse – is enjoying a bumper season, with sowing up 10–15% year-on-year due to ample rains and efficient fieldwork. Targeted acreage is 90% completed, and arrivals in key markets such as Jamnagar, Rajkot, and Junagadh are consistent. In these Gujarat mandis, prices have settled in the $546–$558 per tonne range, indicating stabilization after a brief price drop earlier this month. Conversely, Uttar Pradesh faces a supply crunch: sowing is down by a staggering 70% as extended rainfall has washed out planting opportunities. The result? Dwindling mandi arrivals (just 60–70 tonnes daily) and a slight uptick in prices to $540–$552 per tonne.

Earlier in the month, prices slid by $0.12/kg due to old stock oversupply and tepid local demand, but robust export buying and falling arrivals have reversed that trend. The market now projects a stable near-term outlook, with India’s overall peanut sector demonstrating resilience, buoyed by a balanced supply-demand equation and favorable monsoons where it matters most. Global factors, regional weather, and export dynamics will shape the next move, but for now, volatility is subdued and sentiment constructive.

📈 Prices

Type	Origin	Location	Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price (EUR/kg)	Change	Date	Market Sentiment
Roasted split 60/70/80	IN	New Delhi	FOB	1.17	1.18	-0.01	2025-07-26	Stable
Birdfeed	IN	New Delhi	CFR	1.07	1.08	-0.01	2025-07-26	Stable
Bold 40-50	IN	Gujarat – Gondal	FOB	1.08	1.09	-0.01	2025-07-26	Firm
Java 70-80	IN	New Delhi	FOB	1.06	1.07	-0.01	2025-07-26	Firm
Raw	BR	Brasília	FOB	1.32	1.33	-0.01	2025-07-26	Slightly Bearish

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Gujarat, especially Kutch, leads Indian production with 10–15% higher sowing on the back of reliable rainfall and completed fieldwork.
• In Uttar Pradesh, a dramatic 70% decline in sowing is leading to reduced supplies and pushing prices up slightly.
• Earlier oversupply and weak local demand drove a temporary price drop, but the market rebounded as mandi inflows declined and export demand stayed firm.
• Steady arrivals and stable pricing are evident in Gujarat’s key physical markets: Jamnagar, Rajkot, Junagadh, Bhuj, and Surendranagar.
• Current Indian mandi prices oscillate between $540–$558/tonne, depending on region and quality.

📊 Fundamentals

• India remains among the world’s top groundnut exporters, with most shipments destined for Southeast Asia and EU markets.
• This season’s monsoon distribution in core growing states (notably Gujarat) is underpinning robust yields.
• Global peanut stocks are forecast to stay stable, with modest growth in Indian output likely offset by weather-induced losses elsewhere, such as in China and some African origins (weather updates below).
• Speculative interest in edible oil and oilseed complex remains moderate, preventing extreme volatility in peanut futures and spot prices.

🌦️ Weather Impact Outlook

• Gujarat: Monsoon activity remains favorable, supporting crop maturation and pod filling. No major threats from pests or disease reported.
• Uttar Pradesh: Excessive rainfall has already disrupted sowing; forecast is for lighter showers in the coming week, but damage is largely irreversible for early crop window.
• China and Africa: Persistent dryness in some Chinese and West African peanut belts could limit export competition in H2 2025 if trends continue.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2024/25 Prod. Estimate (mln t)	Yearly Change	Major Trends
India	6.6–6.8	+2–4%	Higher acreage, strong monsoon
China	15.9	+1%	Mixed: North dry, East stable
USA	2.5	+1.5%	Good conditions, no major concerns
Argentina	1.2	Stable	Normal

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• For exporters: Secure new-crop contracts now as Indian supply is stable and quality is high; consider upside risk from further tightening in UP.
• Domestic processors: Lock in current prices if reliant on Gujarat-origin supply; monitor UP and other deficit regions for surprises in feed demand.
• Importers: Monitor Chinese and West African weather as any upturn in their weather stress could shift global balance further in India’s favor toward end-Q3.
• Short-term: Expect prices to remain firm/stable, supported by balanced market fundamentals and strong export pull.
• Watch for global oilseed complex movements that could spill over into peanut pricing.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region/Market	Price Range (USD/tonne)	Forecast Trend	Comments
Gujarat Mandis	546–558	Stable–Firm	Strong arrivals, robust export interest
UP Mandis	540–552	Stable	Low arrivals; possible minor upward bias
New Delhi (FOB)	1.04–1.17 (EUR/kg)	Stable	Seasonal demand and firm export