India’s Almond Appetite Grows: Imports Set for a New High Amid Changing Tastes and Global Challenges

India, the world’s fastest-growing almond market, is gearing up for another year of robust demand and record-high imports. The steadily rising Indian appetite for almonds is underpinned by shifting dietary trends, increasing health consciousness, urbanization, and higher disposable incomes. Despite erratic global pricing and persistent logistical bottlenecks, Indian consumers—particularly in urban areas—continue to view almonds as a nutritional staple. The 2025–26 marketing year is projected to witness a nearly 3% increase in almond imports, reaching about 1.9 million metric tons.

This surge not only underscores the inefficacy of domestic almond cultivation due to unfavorable climate but also cements India’s status as a critical demand hub, with the United States, Australia, and Spain jostling to capture greater market share. Behind the headline numbers are powerful drivers: lifestyle changes, the explosion of the retail and food processing sectors, and regulatory shifts that maintain almonds’ premium status in the Indian pantry—even as global price volatility puts pressure on margins. For producers, traders, and industrial users, this evolving landscape offers opportunities and new risks, from currency fluctuations to supply disruptions. The almond market’s global dynamics continue to ripple from California’s Central Valley to Madrid’s warehouses and Indian trading floors, with the looming question: how high can India’s almond demand climb?

📈 Prices

Origin	Type	Location	Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
USA	Carmel, SSR, 18/20	Washington D.C. (FAS)	6.77	0.00	Neutral/Stable
USA	Carmel, SSR, 20/22	Washington D.C. (FAS)	6.73	0.00	Neutral/Stable
USA	Natural, 27/30, Nonpareil SSR (Organic)	Washington D.C. (FOB)	9.37	0.00	Firm
Spain	Marcona, 12/14	Madrid (FOB)	6.70	0.00	Stable
Spain	Marcona, 14/16	Madrid (FOB)	8.30	0.00	Stable
Spain	Valencia, 10/12	Madrid (FOB)	5.70	0.00	Mildly Weak
Spain	Guara, MMS 12/14	Madrid (FOB)	6.00	0.00	Stable
Spain	Natural, 27/30, Nonpareil SSR (Organic)	Madrid (FOB)	11.65	0.00	Premium/Firm

🌍 Supply & Demand

• India’s almond imports for 2025–26 are forecast to reach 1.9 million metric tons, a 3% rise year-on-year.
• US almond exports continue to dominate, with Australia and Spain as key competitors.
• Domestic Indian production remains negligible—import-dependence likely to persist.
• Urban demand is surging, driven by the bakery, confectionery, and healthy snacking sectors.
• Per capita almond consumption in India is still low compared to developed markets, underscoring room for long-term growth.

📊 Fundamentals

• Major Exporters (2024–25): USA (~80% of global trade), Australia, Spain.
• Major Importers: India, China, Middle East, Europe.
• Global Stock Outlook: US carryover stocks remain ample following strong 2023 crop; Spanish inventories balanced by steady EU/Russian demand.
• Speculative Activity: Quiet; no major fund-driven volatility reported.
• Currency Fluctuations: USD strength could dampen Indian rupee imports, but demand growth likely protects against substantial slowdowns.

🌦️ Weather & Production Outlook

• California (Central Valley): Recent rains improved reservoir levels, helping 2025 bloom prospects, but intermittent heatwaves and drought stress remain a concern. Flower set and pollination for the next crop are closely watched; a return to average yields expected unless summer temperatures spike unexpectedly.
• Spain: Mild spring favored good flowering, but early summer dryness and high temperatures may limit kernel size. Output expected in line with 3-year average.
• Australia: Good winter rains but some frost risk during bloom; output could be slightly above average if frosts remain limited.

🗺️ Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2023/24 Production (M MT)	2025/26 Estimate (M MT)	Key Notes
USA	1.34	1.36	Stable yields, strong export focus
Australia	0.15	0.16	Recovery after dry years
Spain	0.10	0.10	Mature orchards, weather risk
India (imports)	1.84	1.90	Import-dependent, rising demand

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 📊 Buyers: Lock forward contracts for H1 2026 to hedge potential price rebounds driven by Indian retail demand and possible weather volatility in California.
• 📊 Sellers: Mild opportunity for short-term sales as India replenishes inventories; maintain flexibility in pricing due to currency swings and logistical costs.
• 📊 End-users (Food Industry/Retail): Consider stocking ahead of potential seasonal demand spikes during religious festivals and wedding seasons.
• 📊 Watchlist: Monitor California weather forecasts in Q2/Q3, currency developments (USD/INR), and Indian policy or import regulation shifts.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Origin	Type	Exchange/Market	Forecast Price (EUR/kg)	Trend
USA	Carmel SSR 18/20	Washington D.C. (FAS)	6.75 – 6.80	Stable to Firm
Spain	Marcona 12/14	Madrid (FOB)	6.70 – 6.80	Stable
USA	Nonpareil SSR, Organic	Washington D.C. (FOB)	9.30 – 9.45	Firm/Premium