India’s Crop Outlook For The Upcoming Year

Insights from India’s Agriculture Ministry on Harvests

The Indian government’s Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare has released its second advance estimates for major crops in the 2023-24 season (July-June). The report reveals record-breaking wheat and mustard harvests but anticipates a decrease in rice production, signaling the impact of El Nino on kharif and rabi crops.

The overall food grain production is estimated at 309.35 million tones, down from the final estimates of 329.69 million tones for the 2022-23 crop year. However, this projection will be updated with the summer crop, including rice, sown after April.

Crop Breakdown Estimates and Regional Impacts

Wheat production is projected to reach 112.02 million tones, compared to 110.55 million tones the previous year. Rice production is estimated at 123.57 million tones, with 111.46 million tones from the kharif crop and 12.36 million from the rabi crop. However, rice production is lower due to deficient rainfall in the southern states, most affected by El Nino.

Coarse cereals like maize are expected to yield around 32.47 million tones, down from 38.09 million tones last year. The output of nutri-cereals is pegged at 15.38 million tones, contributing to a total production of 53.47 million tones, compared to 57.32 million tones a year ago.

Oilseeds, Pulses, and Other Key Commodities

Oilseed production for the current crop year is estimated at 36.59 million tones, with mustard reaching a record 126.99 million tones. However, soybean production is lower at 12.56 million tones compared to 14.98 million tones in the previous season. No estimate is provided for groundnut.

Key pulses like tur are projected to be slightly higher at 3.4 million tones compared to 3.31 million tones last season. In comparison, gram (chana) production is lower at 12.16 million tones compared to 12.27 million tones. The Ministry of Agriculture also revised sugarcane production to 446.43 million tones, up from 434.79 million tones in the first estimate.

Conclusion

India faced challenging weather conditions during the current crop year, marked by the emergence of El Nino in June 2023. The country experienced its driest August and the sixth-lowest rainfall in November. Despite these hurdles, the agriculture sector has shown resilience, with record harvests in certain crops, albeit accompanied by other declines. As India undergoes these climate uncertainties, the Ministry of Agriculture continues to monitor and assess crop trends. It is to ensure food security and stability in agricultural markets. To get a better understanding of the harvest projections, the table is attached below.