India’s Mango Market: Unmatched Growth and Export Opportunities Shape 2025–2034 Outlook

The global mango market is entering a transformative phase as India cements its position as the sector’s dominant force. The latest OECD–FAO forecast for 2025–2034 projects India to command an extraordinary 42% share of total global mango production by 2034—a substantial leap from its 36% share just a decade earlier. This remarkable trajectory is fueled by robust domestic demand, expanding cultivation areas, and significant advancements in post-harvest management. As Indian exports are set to climb at a steady annual pace, the international market for both fresh and processed mango products continues to broaden, pulling countries like Indonesia and the Philippines into the limelight as well. The steady increase in India’s per capita mango consumption—the highest globally—reinforces the fruit’s cultural and economic prominence within Asia and points toward lasting strength in both demand and supply. Meanwhile, competitive dried mango prices from Vietnam and Thailand indicate ongoing international sourcing flexibility and marketing opportunities for buyers worldwide.

📈 Prices: Current Mango Offers at a Glance

Product	Type	Origin	Location	Delivery Terms	Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Mango dried	Chunks: 2–3 cm, Thickness: 2–15 mm, Moisture 13–19%	Vietnam	Hanoi	FOB	5.62	0.00	Stable
Mango dried	Slices: 5–9 cm; Chunks: 2–3 cm; Thickness: 2–15 mm	Vietnam	Hanoi	FOB	5.85	0.00	Stable
Mango dried	Normal sugar, 8–10 mm	Thailand	Dordrecht (NL)	FCA	4.55	0.00	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand: Global Landscape

• India’s dominance: Share of global mango output to rise from 36% (2022) to 42% (2034).
• Production forecast (2034): India 31.4 million tonnes, global production 166 million tonnes.
• Export outlook: Indian mango exports projected to hit up to 0.13 million tonnes by 2034; annual export growth at 1.2%.
• Consumption trends: India has world’s highest mango consumption (16.5 kg/capita, rising 0.7% annually).
• Key players: After India, Indonesia and the Philippines are the next largest contributors to global mango supply.

📊 Fundamentals: Market Drivers & Competitiveness

• OECD–FAO Outlook: Longer-term growth led by India; better post-harvest tech and expanding acreage support trends.
• Export Opportunity: Focus on value-added processed mango products (pulp, juice, dried) as global tastes evolve.
• Price Stability: FOB and FCA offers from Asia remain steady, reflecting balanced short-term market sentiment.
• Comparative Advantage: India’s infrastructure improvements and large-scale production drive cost efficiency.
• Speculative Positioning: Minimal, due to a predominance of physical trade over futures in mango markets.

🌦 Weather Outlook: Key Mango Regions

• India: Current weather is favorable with timely monsoon; isolated heavy rainfall in Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh supports fruit development but may increase fungal risk if persistent.
• Vietnam & Thailand: Normal to above-normal rainfall predicted, supporting good flowering and fruit set. No major disruptions reported.
• Philippines & Indonesia: Typical seasonal showers, no adverse developments threatening 2025 harvest outlook.

Impact: Weather remains supportive overall, but logistical and post-harvest management will remain crucial to limit quality losses.

🌐 Global Production & Inventory Comparison

Country	2034 Production Forecast (million tonnes)	Share of Global Production (%)	Inventories/Stocks
India	31.4	42	Rising with increased processing and cold chain
Indonesia	12.1 (est)	~7.3	Stable, driven by rising domestic demand
Philippines	11.7 (est)	~7	Steady, expanded exports to East Asia
Other (Global)	110.8	44.7	Fragmented, variable stocks

📆 Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

• Buyers: Consider medium-term contracts with Indian suppliers for price consistency; evaluate Vietnamese and Thai dried mango for price competitive options.
• Exporters/Producers: Invest in advanced post-harvest handling, quality certification, and explore processing to boost margins and minimize wastage.
• Traders: Monitor weather disruptions during key flowering/harvest periods (March–July in India, rule of thumb for SE Asian suppliers).
• Investors: India offers long-term structural growth led by population, rising demand, and infrastructure gains.
• Risk: Watch for potential logistics or phytosanitary regulation changes that could impact border trade.

⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

• Vietnam (FOB, dried mango): Stable at €5.62–€5.85/kg; no near-term changes flagged.
• Netherlands (FCA, Thai dried mango): Stable at €4.55/kg; regional demand matches current offer quantity.
• India (Fresh, seasonal): Spot offers expected to remain firm, with slight upside risk if recent monsoon rains cause last-mile supply hurdles.