India’s Soya Surge: Acreage Booms, Productivity Lags & Global Price Impacts

The global soya market in mid-2025 stands at a pivotal juncture, with India’s substantial leap in soybean cultivation emerging as a headline story. From modest beginnings in the early 1980s, India’s soybean acreage has soared to 12.96 million hectares for the 2024-25 season, positioning the subcontinent as a significant player in global oilseed dynamics. However, this growth is underpinned by persistent structural challenges: average productivity remains low at 11.72 quintals per hectare and oil content lags behind competitors like groundnut. Farmers in leading states such as Madhya Pradesh—India’s soya powerhouse—report ongoing struggles with poor seed quality, low germination, and market returns that are significantly outpaced by other oilseeds.

Meanwhile, global price volatility driven by South American production developments, ongoing climate uncertainties, and heightened competition from North American and Black Sea exporters shapes the near-term outlook. Concerns about India’s seed quality and calls for regulatory reform echo loudly in the background, raising fresh questions about the nation’s ability to translate acreage growth into meaningful productivity gains and domestic edible oil security. Against this backdrop, international FOB prices exhibit slight bullish tendencies, influenced by both Indian and global supply-demand undercurrents. This report dissects the latest production updates, trading sentiment, fundamentals, and weather signals to offer a 360-degree view of the dynamic soya market landscape.

📈 Prices: Key Soya Markets

Origin	Type	Purity	Organic	Location	Delivery	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price (EUR/kg)	Update Date	Sentiment
CN	yellow, organic	99.8%	Yes	Beijing	FOB	0.76	0.75	2025-06-24	Bullish
CN	yellow	99.5%	No	Beijing	FOB	0.68	0.68	2025-06-24	Stable
US	No. 2	–	No	Washington D.C.	FOB	0.34	0.32	2025-06-21	Bullish
IN	sortex clean	–	No	New Delhi	FOB	0.72	0.70	2025-06-21	Bullish
UA	–	–	No	Odesa	FOB	0.35	0.35	2025-06-21	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Overview

• India: 2024-25 soybean acreage up to 12.96M ha (from 11,000 ha in 1980-81).
  • Madhya Pradesh (5.87M ha) and Maharashtra (5.07M ha) lead area expansion.
  • Average yield remains low (11.72 q/ha), while oil content is 18-20%.
  • Unsatisfactory seed quality, high seeding rates (70kg/acre) reported.
  • Gross return: Soybean USD 238/ha vs Groundnut USD 458/ha.
• Global: Robust crops from South America partially offset by U.S. acreage uncertainty and weather-driven volatility.
• China: Strong demand persists for feed and edible oils; import reliance continues.
• Ukraine & Black Sea: Stable output expected in Odesa, but logistics remain a risk.

📊 Fundamentals

• Key Drivers:
  • India’s rising acreage, but productivity and oil content lag.
  • Seed quality issues prompt policy debates and farmer unrest.
  • USDA reports project global stocks broadly steady, but South American yields closely watched.
  • Speculative positions moderately bullish as traders react to tight Indian seed situation and global weather risks.
• Production/Stock Comparison (2024/25, preliminary):

Country	Soya Area (M ha)	Estimated Output (M t)	Ending Stocks (M t)
Brazil	45.6	162.0	32.0
US	33.2	113.0	7.8
Argentina	16.5	50.0	5.6
India	12.96	approx. 13.6	1.7
China (importer)	9.9	20.0	19.5

🌦️ Weather & Yield Outlook

• India (Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra): Monsoon onset on time, but patchy distribution may affect early growth stages. Forecast for the next week suggests 15-20% below-average rainfall in central regions, raising germination and establishment risks if the pattern persists.
• South America: Brazil and Argentina enjoy favorable finish to harvest, but hot, dry spells in southern Brazil may trim late yields.
• US Midwest: Weather is mixed—recent showers in Iowa/Illinois, but some western areas remain in moderate drought. Two-week forecast predicts variable conditions, supporting short-term price volatility.
• Ukraine: Mild early summer and good moisture levels, but export logistics remain a downside risk due to geopolitical uncertainty.

📆 Trading Outlook & Strategy

• Producers:
  • Indian growers should monitor weather and seed input reforms, holding back new sales until monsoon clarity emerges.
  • South American exporters may benefit from recent supply tightness and firm spot demand from Asia.
• Buyers:
  • Importers advised to cover short-term needs as bullish undertones may persist amid Indian seed supply tightness.
  • Consider diversifying origins (US, Ukraine) to hedge against regional risks.
• Speculators:
  • Monitoring weather in the US Midwest and India’s acreage development is critical for summer trading positions.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Origin	Price Now (EUR/kg)	3-Day Forecast (EUR/kg)	Trend
CN, Beijing (organic)	0.76	0.78	Up
CN, Beijing	0.68	0.70	Up
US, Washington D.C.	0.34	0.36	Up
IN, New Delhi	0.72	0.73	Slightly Up
UA, Odesa	0.35	0.35	Stable