India’s Soybean Slump Sets Stage for Global Market Tightening

The international soybean market is entering a pivotal period as India, one of Asia’s major producers, faces a sharp decline in output. According to the Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA), the country’s production is set to fall by 16% this year, with the harvest now forecast at just 10.5 million tons. Erratic weather patterns, especially erratic rainfall during critical crop growth stages, have hurt yields in key states such as Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Rajasthan. Although planted acreage was largely steady compared to last year, productivity per hectare was negatively affected by excess moisture, late monsoon, and pest outbreaks.

This shortfall comes on the heels of a solid 12.5 million ton crop the previous season, underscoring the potential impact on both India’s processing industry and its export capacity. As supplies are expected to tighten for edible oil and feed sectors, analysts anticipate upward pressure on prices domestically and a reflective strengthening across global markets, particularly as major Asian buyers seek alternative sources.

Market participants are closely monitoring Indian output against the backdrop of evolving weather factors in other top exporters such as the US, Brazil, and Argentina. With the world’s third-largest soybean consumer poised for tighter supplies, the stage is set for price volatility and keen global competition for quality beans in the coming months.

📈 Prices & Market Sentiment

Origin	Type	Location	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price (EUR/kg)	Date Updated	Change (%)	Sentiment
China	Yellow, organic	Beijing	0.80	0.78	2025-10-09	+2.6%	Bullish
China	Yellow	Beijing	0.70	0.68	2025-10-09	+2.9%	Bullish
USA	No. 2	Washington D.C.	0.39	0.39	2025-10-03	0.0%	Neutral
India	Sortex clean	New Delhi	0.76	0.76	2025-10-03	0.0%	Neutral
Ukraine		Odesa	0.34	0.34	2025-10-03	0.0%	Neutral

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• India’s Output Drop: Production at 10.5 million tons (-16% YOY), lowest since before 2022.
• Weather Events: Delayed monsoon and excessive rainfall caused yield losses, amplified by pest incidents across main regions.
• Steady Planted Area: Total area sown stable, but yields per hectare fell sharply.
• Global Inventories: USDA projects modest US stock rebuild; Brazil faces uneven yield potential but remains on track for a strong harvest.
• Speculative Positioning: Managed money net longs in soybeans rose, betting on supply tightening in Asia and weather risks in South America.

📊 Fundamentals & Country Comparison

Country	2024/25 Output (mil tons)	Year Change (%)	Stocks (mil tons)	Import/Export Balance
Brazil	154.0	+2.5%	29.5	+ Exporter
USA	113.3	-0.8%	9.8	+ Exporter
Argentina	50.0	+39%	9.1	+ Exporter
India	10.5	-16%	1.1	Net Importer
China	20.0	+1.0%	17.0	Large Importer

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• India: Post-monsoon weather has moderated, but cumulative soil moisture remains high in central belts, posing ongoing pest risks.
• Brazil: Favorable rains in the south support late planting, while parts of Mato Grosso and Goiás face dry intervals. Short-term, weather is neutral/bullish for yield.
• USA: Midwest harvest conditions normal; no major weather threats seen in the 10-day outlook.
• Argentina: Recent rains have alleviated drought conditions, boosting early plant growth prospects.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Expect continued upward price pressure in Asia, especially India, after confirmation of lower crop size.
• Watch for heightened volatility on CBOT and Euronext as US and South American weather remains critical for Q4 and early Q1 2026 deliveries.
• Processors in Asia should secure forward cover for key soybean and meal requirements before inventories tighten further.
• Exporters in South America may see renewed overseas buying interest from Indian importers and Southeast Asia.
• Speculative traders may consider holding or adding to long positions, given the confluence of weather and output risks.

🔮 3-Day Price Forecast

Exchange/Location	Current (EUR/kg)	Forecast 3-day (EUR/kg)	Direction
CBOT (Reference)	0.39	0.40–0.41	⬆️ Slightly Bullish
Euronext (Reference)	0.68–0.76 (China/India basis)	0.69–0.78	⬆️ Slightly Bullish
FOB China (Beijing)	0.80	0.81–0.83	⬆️ Firm/Bullish