India’s Walnut Ambitions: Market Expansion and Stable Global Price Outlook

The global walnut market is witnessing pivotal developments, particularly in India, where extensive nursery initiatives are set to boost domestic walnut production. As the nutritional and economic profile of walnuts continues to drive strong demand worldwide, India is positioning itself as a future powerhouse by investing in improved seedling varieties and expanding orchard area across key states. This strategic move directly addresses India’s increasing consumption needs and long-term goal to achieve self-sufficiency, notably decreasing its reliance on imports.

Short-term, international walnut prices remain soft but stable, with Chinese-origin walnut kernels seeing minor price reductions amid steady export flows and adequate inventories. Meanwhile, U.S. and Indian organic walnut kernels maintain a premium. India’s expansion plan, though focused on long-term supply gains—since walnut trees require years to mature—signals transformative supply changes for the next two decades. Global market participants are closely monitoring both the progress of India’s horticultural improvements and the emerging weather patterns affecting major production regions.

Amid dynamic fundamentals, suppliers, traders, and buyers must adapt to the evolving landscape, balancing steady spot availability with the promise of larger future harvests.

📈 Walnut Price Overview

Product Type	Origin	Location	Organic	Latest Price (EUR/kg, FOB)	Change (€/kg)	Update Date	Sentiment
Walnut kernels, light quarter	CN	Dalian	No	3.37	-0.03	2025-09-19	Steady
Walnut kernels, light amber 8-12mm	CN	Dalian	No	2.32	-0.03	2025-09-19	Soft
Walnut kernels, light pieces 8-12mm	CN	Dalian	No	2.87	-0.03	2025-09-19	Soft
Walnut kernels, light broken 4-8mm	CN	Dalian	No	2.97	-0.03	2025-09-19	Soft
Walnut kernels, light halves 80% (organic)	US	London	Yes	4.63	-0.02	2025-09-19	Firm
Walnut kernels, light halves (organic)	IN	New Delhi	Yes	5.48	-0.02	2025-09-19	Firm

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• India’s Expansion: New nursery projects in Arunachal Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand (40 ha) signal domestic supply growth in the long term; early-stage seedlings distributed in 2025-2026.
• Production Timeline: Trees begin to bear fruit after 7–10 years; commercial yields expected in the 2030s.
• Growing Demand: Health-driven consumption and increasing preference for plant-based nutrition drive demand in India, China, and Europe.
• Current Global Supply: China and US remain dominant exporters; recent harvests have been sufficient to meet global demand, although stocks are slightly down on year-average due to robust shipments.
• Trade Flows: Steady Chinese FOB supplies put gentle downward pressure on prices; U.S. and Indian organic walnuts command a premium in specialized markets.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Developments

• India’s expansion plan aims to reduce import dependency and develop export capability by adopting improved horticultural practices and varieties.
• Productivity gains will reflect over a decade, as trees reach maturity between years 7–25; initial market impact expected in the 2030s.
• Increased investment in nurseries reflects rising confidence in walnuts’ economic returns for Indian farmers.
• Global inventories stable, but lower than last year due to firm Middle East and European demand.
• Speculative activity muted, with physical market conditions dominating price formation.

☀️ Weather Outlook for Key Growing Regions

• India (Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal, Arunachal): Current weather patterns are favorable, with ample monsoon rainfall aiding young tree establishment; no major heatwaves or flooding predicted in the next 2 weeks.
• China (Yunnan, Xinjiang): Recent rains have improved soil moisture levels after summer’s dry spell—supportive for orchard health but may delay late-season harvest activities.
• California (US): Stable temperatures and moderate rainfall predicted; ideal for post-harvest orchard management.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks Snapshot

Country	2024/25 Output (est., 1,000 t)	2023/24 Output (1,000 t)	Stock Situation
China	1,150	1,170	Adequate, drawdown in Q2
United States	730	720	Normal
India	43	39	Rising
Chile	180	175	Stable
EU (Spain, France, etc.)	100	95	Firm

📆 Trading Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

• Spot prices for Chinese and U.S. walnuts remain soft due to healthy 2024 supply; buyers should continue short-term procurement at dips.
• Organic walnut premium expected to persist, particularly for Indian and U.S. kernels; niche buyers advised to secure forward contracts.
• Long-term, Indian market participants should monitor seedling expansion and invest early to capture future productivity gains and export potential.
• Importers in the Middle East and EU should track Indian supply developments, which could temper global price increases by the 2030s.
• Demand-side risk: Should global health trends accelerate, rapid demand growth could strain supply before India’s new crop matures.

⏩ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Product/Origin	Location	Forecast (EUR/kg, FOB)	Trend
Walnut kernels (light quarter, CN)	Dalian	3.33 – 3.39	Stable/Soft
Walnut kernels (light pieces, CN)	Dalian	2.82 – 2.89	Soft
Walnut kernels (organic, US)	London	4.62 – 4.65	Firm
Walnut kernels (organic, IN)	New Delhi	5.45 – 5.52	Firm