Indonesia Grain Market Outlook 2025/26: Corn Expansion Continues, Wheat Shifts, Rice Stabilises

Indonesia Grain Market Outlook 2025/26: Corn Expansion Continues, Wheat Shifts, Rice Stabilises

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🌦 1. Weather & Crop Conditions

• Delayed dry season in 2025 extended rainfall into June–July, benefiting rice and corn in Java, Sulawesi, Bali, and Nusa Tenggara.
• Major reservoirs (Jatiluhur, Cirata, Saguling) are at normal elevation (see Table on page 6).
• The third crop cycle in Java contributes up to 20% of total grain output, currently in the vegetative stage; harvest expected in September 2025.

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🌾 2. Wheat Market

Metric	2023/24	2024/25 (est.)	2025/26 (f)
Imports	13.0 MMT	10.5 MMT ↓	11.0 MMT ↑
Feed Use	1.8 MMT	1.3 MMT ↓	1.4 MMT ↑
Food Use	9.2 MMT	9.3 MMT ↑	9.5 MMT ↑
Ending Stocks	2.14 MMT	1.64 MMT ↓	1.34 MMT ↓

• Wheat imports dropped due to:
  • High corn supply, weakened rupiah, and no feed wheat import approvals
  • Wheat-for-feed imports down 27.8%
• New U.S.–Indonesia wheat MOU: APTINDO commits to buy 800,000 MT U.S. wheat in 2025, and 1 MMT annually (2026–2030)
• U.S. market share still modest (6.9% in 2024/25), behind Australia (31.1%), Canada (22.3%), and Ukraine (17.9%)

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🌽 3. Corn Market

Metric	2023/24	2024/25 (est.)	2025/26 (f)
Production	12.7 MMT	13.2 MMT ↑	13.6 MMT ↑
Imports	1.78 MMT	1.2 MMT ↓	1.2 MMT
Feed Use	9.2 MMT	9.8 MMT ↑	9.9 MMT ↑
Food Use	4.9 MMT	5.0 MMT ↑	5.0 MMT
Ending Stocks	1.34 MMT	0.94 MMT ↓	0.84 MMT ↓

• GE hybrid seeds are gaining ground with 30% higher yields and fall armyworm resistance
• Farmers shifting from rice to corn during short dry seasons
• Feed mills raised corn inclusion to 48–50% of the feed mix as corn became cheaper than wheat
• Imports mainly from Argentina (64%), the U.S. (20%), Brazil (16%)

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🍚 4. Rice Market

Metric	2023/24	2024/25 (est.)	2025/26 (f)
Production (milled)	33.0 MMT	34.1 MMT ↑	33.6 MMT ↓
Consumption	36.2 MMT	35.5 MMT ↓	35.3 MMT ↓
Imports	4.65 MMT	0.70 MMT ↓	0.80 MMT ↑
Ending Stocks	6.17 MMT	5.47 MMT ↓	4.57 MMT ↓

• Production up 14.2% (Jan–Aug), thanks to expanded paddy area and rainfall
• Rice consumption is declining due to substitution with flour-based products (e.g., instant noodles)
• Government procurement target: 3 MMT (wet/dry paddy & rice) at IDR 6,500/kg ($400/MT)
• Retail prices (July 2025):
  • Medium rice: IDR 14,404/kg (~$887/MT)
  • Premium rice: IDR 16,148/kg (~$994/MT)

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🛑 5. Trade Policy & Feed Ingredients

• Feed wheat imports banned in 2024/25
• Imports of DDGS, CGM, MBM rising:
  • DDGS (Jan–May 2025): 350,312 MT (U.S. 93%)
  • MBM: 230,274 MT (U.S. 49%, NZ 18%)
• Corn for ethanol and wet milling growing; 1.6 MMT required in 2025
• Corn prices (July 2025):
  • Farmer gate: IDR 4,982/kg ($307/MT)
  • Feed mill gate: IDR 6,291/kg ($387/MT)

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🧭 Conclusion

Indonesia’s grain outlook for 2025/26 is marked by:

• Higher corn production and corn-based feed substitution
• Wheat imports are recovering slightly due to the U.S. MOU and food demand
• Rice consumption is softening, with flour gaining share
• Stocks for all three crops are projected to decline as demand rises and policy tightens import flexibility

Source: USDA