Indonesia Grain Market Outlook 2025/26: Corn Expansion Continues, Wheat Shifts, Rice Stabilises
🌦 1. Weather & Crop Conditions
- Delayed dry season in 2025 extended rainfall into June–July, benefiting rice and corn in Java, Sulawesi, Bali, and Nusa Tenggara.
- Major reservoirs (Jatiluhur, Cirata, Saguling) are at normal elevation (see Table on page 6).
- The third crop cycle in Java contributes up to 20% of total grain output, currently in the vegetative stage; harvest expected in September 2025.
🌾 2. Wheat Market
| Metric | 2023/24 | 2024/25 (est.) | 2025/26 (f) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Imports | 13.0 MMT | 10.5 MMT ↓ | 11.0 MMT ↑ |
| Feed Use | 1.8 MMT | 1.3 MMT ↓ | 1.4 MMT ↑ |
| Food Use | 9.2 MMT | 9.3 MMT ↑ | 9.5 MMT ↑ |
| Ending Stocks | 2.14 MMT | 1.64 MMT ↓ | 1.34 MMT ↓ |
- Wheat imports dropped due to:
- High corn supply, weakened rupiah, and no feed wheat import approvals
- Wheat-for-feed imports down 27.8%
- New U.S.–Indonesia wheat MOU: APTINDO commits to buy 800,000 MT U.S. wheat in 2025, and 1 MMT annually (2026–2030)
- U.S. market share still modest (6.9% in 2024/25), behind Australia (31.1%), Canada (22.3%), and Ukraine (17.9%)
🌽 3. Corn Market
| Metric | 2023/24 | 2024/25 (est.) | 2025/26 (f) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Production | 12.7 MMT | 13.2 MMT ↑ | 13.6 MMT ↑ |
| Imports | 1.78 MMT | 1.2 MMT ↓ | 1.2 MMT |
| Feed Use | 9.2 MMT | 9.8 MMT ↑ | 9.9 MMT ↑ |
| Food Use | 4.9 MMT | 5.0 MMT ↑ | 5.0 MMT |
| Ending Stocks | 1.34 MMT | 0.94 MMT ↓ | 0.84 MMT ↓ |
- GE hybrid seeds are gaining ground with 30% higher yields and fall armyworm resistance
- Farmers shifting from rice to corn during short dry seasons
- Feed mills raised corn inclusion to 48–50% of the feed mix as corn became cheaper than wheat
- Imports mainly from Argentina (64%), the U.S. (20%), Brazil (16%)
🍚 4. Rice Market
| Metric | 2023/24 | 2024/25 (est.) | 2025/26 (f) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Production (milled) | 33.0 MMT | 34.1 MMT ↑ | 33.6 MMT ↓ |
| Consumption | 36.2 MMT | 35.5 MMT ↓ | 35.3 MMT ↓ |
| Imports | 4.65 MMT | 0.70 MMT ↓ | 0.80 MMT ↑ |
| Ending Stocks | 6.17 MMT | 5.47 MMT ↓ | 4.57 MMT ↓ |
- Production up 14.2% (Jan–Aug), thanks to expanded paddy area and rainfall
- Rice consumption is declining due to substitution with flour-based products (e.g., instant noodles)
- Government procurement target: 3 MMT (wet/dry paddy & rice) at IDR 6,500/kg ($400/MT)
- Retail prices (July 2025):
- Medium rice: IDR 14,404/kg (~$887/MT)
- Premium rice: IDR 16,148/kg (~$994/MT)
🛑 5. Trade Policy & Feed Ingredients
- Feed wheat imports banned in 2024/25
- Imports of DDGS, CGM, MBM rising:
- DDGS (Jan–May 2025): 350,312 MT (U.S. 93%)
- MBM: 230,274 MT (U.S. 49%, NZ 18%)
- Corn for ethanol and wet milling growing; 1.6 MMT required in 2025
- Corn prices (July 2025):
- Farmer gate: IDR 4,982/kg ($307/MT)
- Feed mill gate: IDR 6,291/kg ($387/MT)
🧭 Conclusion
Indonesia’s grain outlook for 2025/26 is marked by:
- Higher corn production and corn-based feed substitution
- Wheat imports are recovering slightly due to the U.S. MOU and food demand
- Rice consumption is softening, with flour gaining share
- Stocks for all three crops are projected to decline as demand rises and policy tightens import flexibility
Source: USDA