The latest report from FAS USDA sheds light on Kazakhstan’s agricultural export outlook for the 2023/24 marketing year, indicating a potential decrease in wheat and wheat flour exports, offset by growing demand for barley.
While Kazakhstan anticipates exporting 10 million tonnes of wheat and wheat flour, a decline of 0.8 million tonnes compared to the previous year, challenges loom due to stiff competition from Russia and reduced wheat quality.
However, the barley market presents a contrasting picture, with exports buoyed by robust feed demand from China, signaling its re-entry into the market. The USDA’s latest forecast for barley exports was revised upwards to 1 million tonnes, reflecting a 125 thousand-tonne increase from previous estimates but still lower than the 2022/23 marketing year.
The diminished grain harvest in Kazakhstan, attributed to adverse weather conditions including drought in June 2023 and excessive fall rains, particularly impacting the Northern Kazakhstan region, underscores the challenges faced by the country. Wheat harvest is estimated at 12.1 million tonnes, representing a 26% year-on-year decrease, while barley production stands at 2.6 million tonnes, down by 21%.
Furthermore, the decline in wheat and barley quality exacerbates the surplus of feed grains, posing additional challenges for the agricultural sector.
As Kazakhstan navigates these challenges, attention turns to strategies to maintain competitiveness in wheat exports while capitalizing on the growing demand for barley, amidst evolving market dynamics and weather-related uncertainties.