Kazakhstan Grain Outlook 2025/26: Wheat and Barley Output Falls as Farmers Shift to Oilseeds
Kazakhstanโs wheat and barley production is forecast to fall in 2025/26, driven by a strategic shift to more profitable oilseeds and economic pressure on farm inputs. Despite a bumper crop in the prior year, export volumes are expected to drop sharply as stocks decline and planting areas shrink.
ย Wheat Overview
| Indicator | 2024/25 (est.) | 2025/26 (forecast) | ฮ YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Production | 16.5 MMT | 13.8 MMT | โ โ16% |
| Area harvested | 12.5 Mha | 12.4 Mha | โ โ1% |
| Exports | 10.0 MMT | 7.5 MMT | โ โ25% |
| Ending stocks | 2.1 MMT | 1.0 MMT | โ โ52% |
| Consumption (total) | 8.3 MMT | 7.5 MMT | โ โ10% |
ย Key Drivers
- Farmers are switching to sunflowers and other oilseeds for higher profitability.
- Input affordability issues (fertiliser, pesticides) despite $1.3 billion in government support.
- Delayed fertiliser distribution: Only 44% of the 1.9 MMT target delivered by mid-May.
- NDVI and weather show near-normal crop health, but yields are expected to fall from last yearโs highs.
Flour Sector
- Flour production increased in 2024/25 due to a bumper wheat crop.
- 130 active flour mills, operating below 50% capacity due to competition (e.g., Uzbekistan), high costs, and weak domestic demand.
- New investments planned:
- KazakhstanโChina: amino acids, biodegradable packaging (Almaty).
- QatarโTurkiyeโKazakhstan: wheat starch, gluten & pea protein.
Wheat Trade
- 2024/25 exports (est.): 10.0 MMT โ 2nd highest on record.
- Boosted by transport subsidies and competitive pricing vs. Russia.
- Exports to Uzbekistan (+35%), Afghanistan, and new markets like Morocco, Vietnam, and Georgia.
- 2025/26 forecast: 7.5 MMT due to a smaller crop.
- FTA with Iran (via EAEU) grants 3.0 MMT TRQ for wheat at 0% tariff.
- Wheat prices (Class 3, EXW) rose from $106/MT (Jan) to $176/MT (June).
Stocks & Infrastructure
- Wheat stocks to drop to 1.0 MMT.
- Grain storage capacity: 16.0 MMT (13.2 MMT licensed); utilisation in June: 23%.
Barley Overview
| Indicator | 2024/25 (est.) | 2025/26 (forecast) | ฮ YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Production | 3.84 MMT | 3.0 MMT | โ โ22% |
| Exports | 1.9 MMT | 1.3 MMT | โ โ32% |
| Consumption (total) | 1.9 MMT | 2.0 MMT | โ +5% |
| Ending stocks | 342,000 MT | 142,000 MT | โ โ58% |
Key Drivers
- Yield reduction despite stable area (2.3 Mha) due to input constraints.
- Most barley is feed-grade; little is malting-quality.
Barley Prices
- EXW prices rose from $104/MT (Jan) to $171/MT (Apr), before easing to $166/MT (June).
- FOB prices: $215/MT (China border), $230โ235/MT (Caspian Sea/Aktau).
Top Markets (2024/25):
- Iran (956,000 MT) โ massive YoY increase.
- Others: China, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Azerbaijan.
Logistics & Trade Corridors
- NorthโSouth Corridor via Iran to UAE activated (1st shipment to UAE in May).
- EAEUโIran FTA ratified; 3 MMT wheat + 1.5 MMT barley TRQs.
- Rail links under development: TurgundiโHerat (Afghanistan) to support flour exports.
- Kazakh wheat exports now reach new markets: Morocco, Vietnam, and others via multimodal routes.
Source: USDA