Kazakhstan Grain Outlook 2025/26: Wheat and Barley Output Falls as Farmers Shift to Oilseeds

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Kazakhstan Grain Outlook 2025/26: Wheat and Barley Output Falls as Farmers Shift to Oilseeds

Kazakhstan’s wheat and barley production is forecast to fall in 2025/26, driven by a strategic shift to more profitable oilseeds and economic pressure on farm inputs. Despite a bumper crop in the prior year, export volumes are expected to drop sharply as stocks decline and planting areas shrink.


 Wheat Overview

Indicator 2024/25 (est.) 2025/26 (forecast) Δ YoY
Production 16.5 MMT 13.8 MMT ↓ –16%
Area harvested 12.5 Mha 12.4 Mha ↓ –1%
Exports 10.0 MMT 7.5 MMT ↓ –25%
Ending stocks 2.1 MMT 1.0 MMT ↓ –52%
Consumption (total) 8.3 MMT 7.5 MMT ↓ –10%

 Key Drivers

  • Farmers are switching to sunflowers and other oilseeds for higher profitability.
  • Input affordability issues (fertiliser, pesticides) despite $1.3 billion in government support.
  • Delayed fertiliser distribution: Only 44% of the 1.9 MMT target delivered by mid-May.
  • NDVI and weather show near-normal crop health, but yields are expected to fall from last year’s highs.

Flour Sector

  • Flour production increased in 2024/25 due to a bumper wheat crop.
  • 130 active flour mills, operating below 50% capacity due to competition (e.g., Uzbekistan), high costs, and weak domestic demand.
  • New investments planned:
    • Kazakhstan–China: amino acids, biodegradable packaging (Almaty).
    • Qatar–Turkiye–Kazakhstan: wheat starch, gluten & pea protein.

Wheat Trade

  • 2024/25 exports (est.): 10.0 MMT – 2nd highest on record.
    • Boosted by transport subsidies and competitive pricing vs. Russia.
    • Exports to Uzbekistan (+35%), Afghanistan, and new markets like Morocco, Vietnam, and Georgia.
  • 2025/26 forecast: 7.5 MMT due to a smaller crop.
  • FTA with Iran (via EAEU) grants 3.0 MMT TRQ for wheat at 0% tariff.
  • Wheat prices (Class 3, EXW) rose from $106/MT (Jan) to $176/MT (June).

Stocks & Infrastructure

  • Wheat stocks to drop to 1.0 MMT.
  • Grain storage capacity: 16.0 MMT (13.2 MMT licensed); utilisation in June: 23%.

Barley Overview

Indicator 2024/25 (est.) 2025/26 (forecast) Δ YoY
Production 3.84 MMT 3.0 MMT ↓ –22%
Exports 1.9 MMT 1.3 MMT ↓ –32%
Consumption (total) 1.9 MMT 2.0 MMT ↑ +5%
Ending stocks 342,000 MT 142,000 MT ↓ –58%

Key Drivers

  • Yield reduction despite stable area (2.3 Mha) due to input constraints.
  • Most barley is feed-grade; little is malting-quality.

Barley Prices

  • EXW prices rose from $104/MT (Jan) to $171/MT (Apr), before easing to $166/MT (June).
  • FOB prices: $215/MT (China border), $230–235/MT (Caspian Sea/Aktau).

Top Markets (2024/25):

  • Iran (956,000 MT) – massive YoY increase.
  • Others: China, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Azerbaijan.

Logistics & Trade Corridors

  • North–South Corridor via Iran to UAE activated (1st shipment to UAE in May).
  • EAEU–Iran FTA ratified; 3 MMT wheat + 1.5 MMT barley TRQs.
  • Rail links under development: Turgundi–Herat (Afghanistan) to support flour exports.
  • Kazakh wheat exports now reach new markets: Morocco, Vietnam, and others via multimodal routes.

Source: USDA