Kazakhstan Grain Outlook 2025/26: Wheat and Barley Output Falls as Farmers Shift to Oilseeds

Kazakhstan Grain Outlook 2025/26: Wheat and Barley Output Falls as Farmers Shift to Oilseeds

Kazakhstan’s wheat and barley production is forecast to fall in 2025/26, driven by a strategic shift to more profitable oilseeds and economic pressure on farm inputs. Despite a bumper crop in the prior year, export volumes are expected to drop sharply as stocks decline and planting areas shrink.

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 Wheat Overview

Indicator	2024/25 (est.)	2025/26 (forecast)	Δ YoY
Production	16.5 MMT	13.8 MMT	↓ –16%
Area harvested	12.5 Mha	12.4 Mha	↓ –1%
Exports	10.0 MMT	7.5 MMT	↓ –25%
Ending stocks	2.1 MMT	1.0 MMT	↓ –52%
Consumption (total)	8.3 MMT	7.5 MMT	↓ –10%

 Key Drivers

• Farmers are switching to sunflowers and other oilseeds for higher profitability.
• Input affordability issues (fertiliser, pesticides) despite $1.3 billion in government support.
• Delayed fertiliser distribution: Only 44% of the 1.9 MMT target delivered by mid-May.
• NDVI and weather show near-normal crop health, but yields are expected to fall from last year’s highs.

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Flour Sector

• Flour production increased in 2024/25 due to a bumper wheat crop.
• 130 active flour mills, operating below 50% capacity due to competition (e.g., Uzbekistan), high costs, and weak domestic demand.
• New investments planned:
  • Kazakhstan–China: amino acids, biodegradable packaging (Almaty).
  • Qatar–Turkiye–Kazakhstan: wheat starch, gluten & pea protein.

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Wheat Trade

• 2024/25 exports (est.): 10.0 MMT – 2nd highest on record.
  • Boosted by transport subsidies and competitive pricing vs. Russia.
  • Exports to Uzbekistan (+35%), Afghanistan, and new markets like Morocco, Vietnam, and Georgia.
• 2025/26 forecast: 7.5 MMT due to a smaller crop.
• FTA with Iran (via EAEU) grants 3.0 MMT TRQ for wheat at 0% tariff.
• Wheat prices (Class 3, EXW) rose from $106/MT (Jan) to $176/MT (June).

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Stocks & Infrastructure

• Wheat stocks to drop to 1.0 MMT.
• Grain storage capacity: 16.0 MMT (13.2 MMT licensed); utilisation in June: 23%.

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Barley Overview

Indicator	2024/25 (est.)	2025/26 (forecast)	Δ YoY
Production	3.84 MMT	3.0 MMT	↓ –22%
Exports	1.9 MMT	1.3 MMT	↓ –32%
Consumption (total)	1.9 MMT	2.0 MMT	↑ +5%
Ending stocks	342,000 MT	142,000 MT	↓ –58%

Key Drivers

• Yield reduction despite stable area (2.3 Mha) due to input constraints.
• Most barley is feed-grade; little is malting-quality.

Barley Prices

• EXW prices rose from $104/MT (Jan) to $171/MT (Apr), before easing to $166/MT (June).
• FOB prices: $215/MT (China border), $230–235/MT (Caspian Sea/Aktau).

Top Markets (2024/25):

• Iran (956,000 MT) – massive YoY increase.
• Others: China, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Azerbaijan.

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Logistics & Trade Corridors

• North–South Corridor via Iran to UAE activated (1st shipment to UAE in May).
• EAEU–Iran FTA ratified; 3 MMT wheat + 1.5 MMT barley TRQs.
• Rail links under development: Turgundi–Herat (Afghanistan) to support flour exports.
• Kazakh wheat exports now reach new markets: Morocco, Vietnam, and others via multimodal routes.

Source: USDA