Kazakhstan Poised for Linseed Market As Russia’s Export Duty Reshapes Global Trade in 2025

The global linseed market is navigating a major realignment in 2025 as Russia’s newly implemented 10% export duty sends ripples across trade flows, pricing, and investment. This policy—meant to stimulate Russia’s linseed processing sector—may inadvertently curb Russian farmers’ enthusiasm for planting the crop, while simultaneously boosting opportunities for competitors, especially Kazakhstan.

Indeed, Kazakhstan’s linseed acreage has soared by 55% this year, and with European and Chinese demand on the rise, Kazakhstan is set to become a dominant force in the global linseed landscape. Amid rising EU tariffs against Russian linseed oil and persistent logistics challenges for processed products, raw seed exports have become the focal point of competition. Combined with tightening restrictions on Russian supply in key EU markets and growing demand from China, the linseed sector is entering a transformative period. Canadian and Kazakh exporters are especially well-placed to capitalize on Russia’s declining profitability and shrinking acreage. Weather, policy, and currency fluctuations all play a role as stakeholders recalibrate strategies for the coming season.

📈 Prices & Market Snapshot

Product Name	Origin	Location	Purity	Organic	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Prior Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Linseed Brown	Kazakhstan	Dordrecht, NL	99.9%	Yes	FCA	1.25	1.27	-1.6%	Softening (ample supplies/KZ growth)
Linseed Yellow	Russia	Dordrecht, NL	99.9%	No	FCA	1.28	1.22	+4.9%	Firm (tariff-driven supply risk)

🌍 Supply & Demand Shifts

• Russian export duty (10%) is reducing incentives for Russian farmers, threatening future acreage and potentially tightening supply mid to long term.
• Kazakhstan’s linseed area: Up 55% to 1.35 million ha; forecast output 1 million tons in 2025—gaining market share in both the EU and China.
• EU’s import regime: Higher tariffs and restrictions limit Russian supply; Kazakh linseed remains attractive, especially due to easier access and lower political risk.
• Chinese demand: Still robust, but with increasingly fierce competition from Kazakhstan and Canada.
• Linseed oil exports: Continued decline, given high EU import tariffs (set to rise to 50% by 2026), shifting competitive focus to raw seed.
• Kazakhstan’s main challenge is logistics for oil exports, reinforcing strategic focus on raw seeds.

📊 Fundamentals & Producer Trends

• Production (2025, est.): Russia 1.2 million tons (1.7 million ha), Kazakhstan 1 million tons (1.35 million ha), Canada stable at ~500,000 tons.
• Processing capacity: Remains minimal in both Russia and Kazakhstan; imported linseed oil negligible in global trade context.
• Policy impacts: Russia’s export duty and EU tariffs will likely drop Russian linseed acreage in coming years, benefiting Kazakh and Canadian producers.
• Major importing regions: EU (regulatory-driven), China (demand-driven, price-sensitive).
• Kazakhstan’s exports to the EU expected to expand markedly as Russian supply wanes.

☁️ Weather Outlook

• Kazakhstan: Recent satellite weather data indicates normal to above-normal rainfall in Northern Kazakhstan, where the majority of linseed is grown, supporting optimal growing conditions. No significant frost or drought alerts in the next 2–3 weeks.
• Russia: Slightly drier in key producing regions; some localized drought stress has been reported, which may weigh on yields if conditions persist.
• Canada: Prairies report favorable mid-summer weather, supporting trend-line yields, but late-season rain is needed for optimal quality.

🌐 Global Production & Inventory Comparison

Country	2025 Est. Production (tons)	2025 Est. Ending Stocks (tons)	Main Export Markets
Russia	1,200,000	260,000	China, EU, Turkey
Kazakhstan	1,000,000	140,000	EU, China, Iran
Canada	500,000	100,000	China, US, EU

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 📉 Sellers (Russia): Consider hedging or reducing exposure in linseed following falling profitability and growing regulatory risk. Monitor policy shifts closely.
• 📈 Sellers (Kazakhstan): Expand contract sales in the EU and China, leveraging improved supply and EU preference for non-Russian origin.
• 🔎 Buyers (EU): Prioritize Kazakh and Canadian linseed procurement. Lock in forward contracts ahead of further reductions in Russian supply.
• 📊 Traders: Speculative positioning should favour Kazakh and Canadian origin for any long exposure.
• ⚠️ Monitor weather: Short-term upside risk for prices in the event of weather-related yield downgrades, especially in Russia.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Product	Origin	Exchange/Market	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	3-Day Forecast (EUR/kg)	Trend
Linseed Brown	Kazakhstan	Dordrecht (FCA)	1.25	1.23 – 1.25	Mildly Bearish
Linseed Yellow	Russia	Dordrecht (FCA)	1.28	1.27 – 1.29	Stable/Firm