Kazakhstan’s Flaxseed Surge: EU Demand and Weather Risks Shape 2024–25 Market Outlook

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The flaxseed market is experiencing a pivotal shift in 2024–25, with Kazakhstan firmly in the spotlight as a driving force behind global dynamics. Between September 2024 and May 2025, Kazakh flaxseed exports soared to 453,200 tonnes—more than twice last year’s figures—fueled by improved yields, expanding acreage, and robust demand from Europe. The backdrop to this surge is a remarkable recovery from last year’s weak harvest, limited carryover stocks, and renewed interest from farmers spurred by supportive policies. Kazakhstan’s sown area is poised to approach 1 million hectares, reflecting a strong commitment to oilseeds and the nation’s strategic ambitions.
EU buyers, adapting to forthcoming tariffs on Russian imports, have markedly increased reliance on Kazakh supplies. This pivot has not only bolstered Kazakhstan’s status as a key supplier but also reinforced export price strength. Although current prices have edged down from their early-summer highs due to wider global availability, flaxseed remains relatively firm on the export market, supported by ongoing European demand. Looking ahead, the sector’s outlook will hinge on the critical juncture of harvest-time weather, logistical effectiveness in the Black Sea region, and evolving EU trade policy towards Russia. With Europe likely to maintain strong purchasing into the next season and Kazakhstan well-placed to capitalize, the flax market is trading in an environment marked by opportunity—and risk.

📈 Prices

Origin Location Purity (%) Organic Delivery Current Price (EUR/kg) Previous Price (EUR/kg) Last Update Sentiment
UA Kiełczygłów, PL 99.95 No FCA 0.78 0.79 2025-08-14 Stable/Soft
UA Berlin, DE 99.95 No FCA 0.78 0.79 2025-08-14 Stable/Soft
KZ Astana, KZ 97.00 Yes FOB 1.84 1.84 2025-08-14 Firm
CA Ottawa, CA 97.00 Yes FOB 1.47 1.47 2025-08-14 Firm
UA Kyiv, UA 98.00 No FCA 0.67 0.67 2025-08-14 Stable
IN New Delhi, IN 99.90 No FOB 0.88 0.88 2025-08-09 Stable
KZ Kiełczygłow, PL 99.95 No FCA 0.74 0.74 2025-08-06 Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand

  • Kazakhstan 2024–25 Exports: 453,200 tonnes (Sep–May, +112% y/y)
  • Acreage: Expected near 1 million ha (rebounds to previous highs)
  • EU Import Demand: Stronger amid tariff policies targeting Russia (increased for 2025/26 and further for 2026)
  • Carry-In Stocks: Reduced after weak 2023, tightening start-of-season supply
  • Global Market: Increased overall availability, but EU demand offsets looser supply

📊 Fundamentals

  • Major driver: Recovery in Kazakh production following poor 2023 crop
  • Farm policy support for oilseeds boosts sowing interest
  • EU importers shifting away from Russian origin due to new tariff regime
  • Speculators are neutral/bullish amid weather and policy risk
  • Global stocks: Kazakhstan exportable surplus rises, Canada/Ukraine supplies steady

☀️ Weather Outlook (Aug 2025)

  • Kazakhstan: Near-average rainfall in July; August forecast calls for mixed conditions, with some risk of hot/dry spells in eastern oilseed-producing areas which may affect yield potential if precipitation falls short. Harvest weather is a key watchpoint.
  • Canada: Temperatures above the seasonal norm expected in the prairies, mild drought persists in some areas, potentially capping yield recovery.
  • Ukraine/EU: Generally favorable, but scattered local storms could briefly disrupt harvest logistics.

🌐 Production & Stock Comparison

Country 2023/24 Production (000 t) 2024/25 Forecast (000 t) Export Potential (000 t)
Kazakhstan ~440 ~670 ~550
Canada 275 285 215
Russia 640 560 (policy risk) 200–270 (tariffs)
Ukraine 120 125 100

🗒️ Key Drivers and Market Outlook

  • EU policy shift (tariffs on Russia) strengthens demand for Kazakh flaxseed
  • Weather during August–September harvest designated a critical risk for yields and quality
  • Logistics in Black Sea corridor: shipping reliability and cost are important variables
  • Speculator positioning: Neutral to slightly bullish

🔎 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

  • For Exporters: Maintain contract discipline given price firmness and European demand. Watch for adverse harvest weather in Kazakhstan/Eurasia late August–early September.
  • Buyers: Consider forward coverage for autumn/winter 2025–26, especially for EU processors facing tighter Russian supply.
  • Risk-takers/Speculators: Monitor weather updates, as heat/drought could quickly tighten the market and trigger price spikes.
  • All participants: Watch Black Sea logistics and policy headlines for potential price volatility triggers.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Location Current Price (EUR/kg) Expected Range (EUR/kg) Forecast Sentiment
Kazakhstan (FOB, Astana) 1.84 1.82 – 1.87 Stable/Firm
Ukraine (FCA, Kyiv/Odesa) 0.67 0.66 – 0.69 Stable
Germany/Poland (FCA, UA origin) 0.78 0.77 – 0.80 Soft with potential uptick