Kenyan Macadamias Under Pressure as Local Glut Collides with Weak Global Demand

Macadamia prices remain under heavy pressure as ample global supply, a local buying slowdown and policy uncertainty in Kenya cap farm‑gate values, while export kernel prices struggle to recover. Kenya’s 2026 harvest is fully underway with strong production in Kirinyaga, Embu and other Mount Kenya counties, but processors report scaling down or shutting plants amid weak orders and ongoing debate over the ban on raw nut exports. At the same time, international benchmarks show macadamia export prices at multi‑year lows, with India’s latest export unit value below €2/kg equivalent, reflecting intense competition and soft demand in key snack and confectionery markets. Short‑term upside appears limited, and the local market is likely to remain buyer‑driven unless policy shifts or a demand surprise tighten the balance.

Prices & Market Tone

Kenyan processors are reportedly cutting throughput or halting operations as they struggle to find profitable outlets for kernel, leaving farm‑gate prices under pressure in major producing regions such as Nyeri, Kirinyaga and Embu. This signals a buyer’s market where processors and brokers can dictate terms, especially for lower grades.

On the international side, India’s June 2026 export unit value for macadamias stands near US$1.89/kg (about €1.75/kg), around 60% lower year‑on‑year, highlighting how far global prices have fallen across origins. With European kernel import prices still generally benchmarked several euros higher than this, margins along the chain remain compressed and spot inquiries stay cautious.

Supply, Policy & Demand Drivers

Kenya has reopened its macadamia harvest and trade window from February 2026, and recent reporting from Kirinyaga points to expanding farmer participation and rising production volumes supported by processing capacity in the region. However, several factories are now scaling down or closing due to poor demand and thin margins, aggravating a local oversupply and depressing prices to growers.

Panic in the sector is being fueled by lobbying from brokers to lift the long‑standing ban on raw nut exports, which processors fear would divert volumes away from local plants and erode value addition. Globally, an agribusiness commodity update flags a record macadamia crop and ample supply across major origins, with softer demand expected to weigh on pricing prospects through 2026. This combination of strong supply and hesitant buyers is keeping kernel prices subdued on most export routes.

Weather & Crop Conditions (Kenya, Region KE)

Weather around the Mount Kenya macadamia belt in June 2026 has been seasonally cool with intermittent showers according to regional forecasts, generally supportive of nut filling and late‑season orchard management. No major short‑term weather disruptions are indicated for the next few days, suggesting limited immediate risk to yield or quality.

Given that much of the 2026 crop is already harvested or in late harvest, current weather mainly affects drying and post‑harvest handling rather than volumes. As a result, near‑term price movements are likely to be driven more by policy decisions, processor buying programs and export demand than by climatic factors.

Fundamentals & Macro Context

Global macadamia fundamentals are characterized by a multi‑year expansion in planted area, with new orchards in Africa and Oceania coming into full production, leading to a record world crop and structurally looser balance. A recent European market study notes that kernel export prices were mostly between about €8.5 and €11.5/kg in early 2025, but industry commentary now points to trades below this range as sellers compete for limited demand.

In Kenya, broader macroeconomic pressures such as high fuel costs and fiscal consolidation are weighing on logistics and working capital, indirectly affecting farm‑gate prices by raising transport and processing costs. Processors’ ability to pay higher nut prices is constrained by weak export returns and policy uncertainty around raw nut exports, keeping the domestic market firmly in buyers’ hands.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Takeaways

• Near-term price bias: Sideways to slightly lower in Kenya, as local supply remains heavy and processing capacity is underutilized.
• Key upside risk: Any credible move to ease export constraints or a surprise pickup in European and Asian demand could firm kernel prices and filter back to farm‑gate levels.
• Downside risk: Further factory closures or prolonged policy indecision could force more nuts into informal channels at discounted prices.
• Strategy – buyers: End‑users with coverage gaps may use current weakness to lock in forward kernel volumes in EUR, focusing on quality differentials and reliable Kenyan processors.
• Strategy – growers/processors: Emphasize quality, traceability and certification to access premium segments, while closely monitoring policy discussions on raw exports and adjusting sales timing where storage allows.

3-Day Indicative Outlook (Region KE)

• Kenya farm-gate (nut-in-shell, converted to EUR): Stable to slightly softer; bargaining power stays with buyers as local stocks remain heavy and factory demand is patchy.
• Kenya processor kernel offers (FOB, EUR terms): Largely steady with a mild downside bias; exporters prioritize volume clearance over price increases given weak global benchmarks.
• Global reference levels: International unit values near or below €2/kg for some origins will continue to cap any short‑term rally in higher‑grade Kenyan kernel offers.