Kyrgyzstan’s Nut Exports Plunge in 2025: Market Risks, Prices & Outlook

The global nut market is facing a period of sharp recalibration, driven in no small part by the dramatic downturn in Kyrgyzstan’s exports during 2025. Traditionally a major exporter, Kyrgyzstan reported a staggering 4.5-fold decrease in nut shipments year-on-year: just 5,848 tonnes valued at USD 8.78 million left the country in 2025 compared to 26,210 tonnes (USD 20.7 million) a year earlier. Russia, the mainstay of Kyrgyz nut buyers, slashed imports to 1,969 tonnes (just USD 0.92 million in value), from 8,369 tonnes (USD 4.44 million) in 2024. While other markets such as Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Serbia, and Turkey remained active, volumes shipped to all destinations deteriorated sharply. This seismic contraction has rippled through trade flows, regional pricing, and global expectations, raising concerns about underlying supply, demand, and future stability in both raw material markets and processed nut supply chains.

📈 Prices

Product	Origin	Location	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price	Update Date	Market Sentiment
Brazil nuts (medium)	NL	Dordrecht (NL)	FCA	6.5	6.5	2026-02-28	Stable

Key Price Insights

• Flat price movement in Europe as shown by stable Brazil nut offers at 6.5 EUR/kg in the Netherlands.
• Sharp volume contraction in Kyrgyzstan’s exports suggests potential upward risk in regional prices if demand rebounds or if other suppliers face constraints.

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Kyrgyzstan’s Total Exports: 5,848 tonnes in 2025 (down from 26,210 tonnes in 2024).
• Main Destinations: Russia (1,969 t), Uzbekistan (1,046 t), Azerbaijan (720 t), Serbia (602 t), Turkey (538 t).
• Smaller Volumes: Traded to Iran, Georgia, Afghanistan, Germany, China, Iraq, UAE, and others.
• Russian demand drove historic volumes but has dramatically weakened, severely curbing regional trade flows.
• The contraction has led to tighter liquidity in regional nut markets, increasing the importance of supply chain diversification.

📊 Fundamentals

• Export Value Drop: 4.5-fold decline in both volume and value signals possible issues with production, trade policy, or logistic bottlenecks in Kyrgyzstan.
• Market Diversification: Smaller buyers are growing in importance as Russia imports less, but may not absorb the entire supply loss.
• Global buyers are likely to re-evaluate sourcing channels, potentially benefitting other Central Asian or international suppliers.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• No major adverse weather has been reported recently in key growing regions outside Kyrgyzstan.
• However, continued monitoring is recommended as logistical and climate-related risks can quickly upend export flows and crop yields, especially in Central Asia’s mountainous nut-producing zones.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

• Kyrgyzstan: Sudden export drop tightening regional supply.
• Russia & Neighbors: Likely to seek alternative sources (Turkey, Iran, EU, Brazil) amid Kyrgyzstan’s decline.
• EU Market: Prices stable for Brazil nuts, but buyers remain alert for supply shocks spilling over into other nut categories.

💡 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor Kyrgyzstan’s export policies and production reports for signals of future normalization or further contraction.
• Regional buyers should secure contracts early with alternative suppliers.
• Speculators could see opportunities in price volatility if tightness persists and demand revives from Russia or regional neighbors.
• Watch for policy or currency developments impacting trade flows in Central Asia.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Date	Exchange/Market	Product	Forecast Price (EUR/kg)	Direction
2026-03-01	Netherlands Local Market	Brazil nuts	6.5	→ Stable
2026-03-02	Netherlands Local Market	Brazil nuts	6.5	→ Stable
2026-03-03	Netherlands Local Market	Brazil nuts	6.5	→ Stable