The lentil market is entering a pivotal period in 2023-24, characterized by robust demand, shifting global supply dynamics, and rising prices. India, already a powerhouse in lentil production, is set to be a key market mover this season as it ramps up output to an estimated 8 million tons, a feat achieved through expanded acreage and favorable weather. This increase comes at a crucial time for global markets, as plant-based protein consumption accelerates in response to health and sustainability trends worldwide. Despite steady global production, regional imbalances are apparent — India’s ability to both meet domestic consumption and serve international buyers, especially in neighboring Bangladesh and Nepal, positions it at the market’s epicenter.
Meanwhile, domestic price trends reflect a tightening supply, particularly for small lentil varieties sought after for their quick cooking and distinctive taste. Import flows from Canada — the world’s top exporter — are intensifying competition, especially for larger pearl types sold at competitive rates. Yet, strong consumer preference for local Indian varieties is sustaining premiums. Market participants note that wholesale and retail prices in India have shown steady upward momentum, with expectations that further increases of up to $0.12/kg could materialize in the coming months. With a complex mix of weather impacts, trade flows, and consumer loyalty shaping the outlook, market fundamentals are ripe for further volatility and opportunity — both for traders and industry stakeholders.
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Lentils dried
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FOB 2.46 €/kg
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📈 Prices
| Origin | Type | Organic | Location | FOB Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Price (EUR/kg) | Update Date | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | Small, Green | Yes | Beijing | 1.30 | 1.32 | 2025-07-23 | Stable/Softening |
| China | Small, Green | No | Beijing | 1.22 | 1.24 | 2025-07-23 | Stable/Softening |
| Canada | Red Football | No | Ottawa | 2.47 | 2.50 | 2025-07-19 | Stable |
| Canada | Laird, Green | No | Ottawa | 1.65 | 1.68 | 2025-07-19 | Stable |
| Canada | Eston Green | No | Ottawa | 1.52 | 1.55 | 2025-07-19 | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- India: Projected 2023-24 lentil production reaches around 8 million tons, up on expanded acreage and strong local/international demand.
- Global: Total global output is stable, but regional supply gaps are emerging as plant-based protein demand increases.
- Key Importers: Bangladesh and Nepal depend heavily on Indian supply. Canada remains a major supplier to Asia, but domestic Indian varieties are preferred for taste/quality.
- Small Lentils: High domestic preference drives tight supplies and firm prices in Indian markets, particularly from cluster regions (Kota, Bundi, Bihar).
📊 Fundamentals
- USDA & FAO Data: FAO confirms India’s record production; USDA data supports global output stability.
- Inventories: Stock-to-use ratios remain tight across key Asian markets — emphasizing vulnerability to weather or logistical disruptions.
- Speculative Positioning: Traders and processors anticipate higher future prices, underpinning current market strength.
- Import/Export Flows: Canada’s low-priced pearl lentils offer price relief, but Indian consumer loyalty to domestic product supports local producer margins.
☀️ Weather Outlook
- India: Monsoon patterns in July/August 2024 have been mostly favorable, boosting crop health; isolated heavy rainfall in eastern India poses localized risks but, overall, yield expectations remain robust.
- Canada: Prairie regions (Saskatchewan, Alberta) reporting moderate to dry conditions; sufficient precipitation has helped, yet pockets of drought persist, potentially limiting upside in Canadian yields.
- China: Key lentil zones continue to benefit from average rainfall and mild temperatures — supporting a stable supply outlook.
🌏 Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2023-24 Production (Million Tons) | Stock Trend | Key Export/Import Markets |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 8.0 | Tight | Exports: Bangladesh, Nepal |
| Canada | 3.0 (est.) | Moderate | Exports: India, Asia, MENA |
| China | 1.2 (est.) | Stable | Domestic/Regional |
| Bangladesh | 0.3 | Deficit/Import-dependent | Imports: India |
🔎 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Lentil prices are expected to remain firm through Q3 2024 as supply tightness persists, especially for small varieties.
- Indian producers remain well positioned to capture premium prices owing to quality preferences in main domestic and export markets.
- Importers seeking cost relief should look to Canadian pearl or large red lentils as alternatives, but should monitor for volatility from possible weather disruptions in Canada.
- End-users and processors are advised to secure supplies early, especially for small/green types, as inventory drawdowns accelerate ahead of the autumn festival period.
- Traders should monitor exchange rates and logistics cost developments impacting cross-border flows, particularly between India and its neighbors.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Origin | Type | Current Price (EUR/kg) | Forecast Range (Next 3 Days, EUR/kg) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | Small, Green | 1.30 | 1.29 – 1.32 | Slightly Soft |
| China | Small, Green | 1.22 | 1.21 – 1.24 | Slightly Soft |
| Canada | Red Football | 2.47 | 2.45 – 2.48 | Stable |
| Canada | Laird, Green | 1.65 | 1.64 – 1.66 | Stable |
| Canada | Eston Green | 1.52 | 1.51 – 1.53 | Stable |
