Lentil Markets 2024: India’s Supply Paradox, Global Risks, and Price Steadiness

The 2024 lentil market reveals a delicate balance between perception and reality. While India’s Union Agriculture Ministry projects a pronounced increase in lentil production to 18 lakh tonnes for the 2024-25 Rabi season, credible market sources dispute this, suggesting the actual number for red lentils hovers closer to just 10-12 lakh tonnes. This shortfall comes at a time when domestic stocks, estimated at roughly 10 lakh tonnes, are deemed adequate to meet consumption requirements for the next four to five months. Despite this comfort, the imposition of a 10% customs duty on lentil imports effectively stifles the economic incentive to import, likely until at least October or November. On the global stage, the supply-and-demand equation is shifting. Turkey, having nearly exhausted its previous stocks, is increasing its import share—from Russia and Kazakhstan alongside traditional Canadian sources—potentially upping its lentil imports by 30-40%. Meanwhile, international red lentil supply currently outpaces demand, but weather uncertainties loom, most notably in Australia. A persistent drought in Australia’s main lentil regions could slash global availability by up to 800,000 tonnes, intensifying upward price pressure. For now, prices remain stable, especially in India where government-fixed minimum support prices—ranging between $700 and $800 per tonne—support market steadying. As we transition into the second half of the year, close attention to Indian stock draws, Turkish buying, and Australian weather will be vital to anticipate the next market move.

📈 Prices

Type	Origin	Location	Purity / Organic	Latest FOB Price (USD/MT)	Weekly Change	Date	Sentiment
Red Football	Canada	Ottawa	Conventional	2.48	0.00	2025-06-06	Stable
Laird, Green	Canada	Ottawa	Conventional	1.64	0.00	2025-06-06	Stable
Eston Green	Canada	Ottawa	Conventional	1.51	0.00	2025-06-06	Stable
Small, Green	China	Beijing	Organic (99.5%)	1.43	+0.01	2025-06-04	Slightly Bullish
Small, Green	China	Beijing	Conventional (99.5%)	1.32	+0.02	2025-06-04	Slightly Bullish

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Indian Production: Official estimate at 1.8 million tonnes (18 lakh); trade sources see actual output 10-12 lakh tonnes—a significant downward revision.
• Stocks: About 1 million tonnes (10 lakh tonnes) of lentils are currently in Indian stocks, sufficient for next 4–5 months’ domestic consumption. Imports disincentivized by 10% customs duty.
• Turkey: Domestic inventories depleted; lentil imports now rising 30–40%. 2023/24 → 1.3 lakh tonnes (Russia/Kazakhstan); 2024/25 → 1.8 lakh tonnes. Imports previously 20–25% of needs, now sharply increasing. Primary sources: Canada, Russia, Kazakhstan.
• Australia: Weather risk persists. Further drought to lower global supply by up to 800,000 tonnes; watch for conditions in South Australia and Victoria.
• Canadian Exports: Canada remains the primary supplier to South Asia and Turkey, market share challenged by Russian and Kazakh volumes.

📊 Fundamentals

• Official Indian Minimum Support Price: $700–800/tonne (range steady).
• Global spot prices largely stable with brief bullish sentiment seen in China’s green lentil segment.
• Global stock-to-use ratio moderately comfortable but sensitive to Australian weather and Turkish demand.
• Speculative positioning: Limited interest; commercial hedgers active given stable price band.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Yield Impact

• India: Monsoon forecasts normal to slightly above average—favourable for summer sowing, expected to sustain comfortable stocks into early autumn.
• Australia: Southern Australia facing persistent drought risk; latest agri weather reports (June 2025) signal below-average rainfall in key lentil belts (South Australia, Victoria). If current pattern persists, expect a significant cut in exportable surplus.
• Canada & Russia: Mild growing conditions with average rainfall; normal yield outlook for both major export regions.

🌐 Production & Stocks Snapshot

Country	2024/25 Output (est.)	Carryover Stocks	Status/Note
India	10-12 lakh t	About 10 lakh t	Stocks ample until autumn; official figures hotly disputed
Turkey	~0.5 lakh t	Almost nil	Surging import needs; shift to Russian/Kazakh origins
Canada	~2.6 million t	~0.3 million t	Consistent supply; competitive advantage in western markets
Australia	~1.4 million t*	~0.2 million t	*Drought risk could cut yield sharply
Russia/Kazakhstan	Growing	N/A	Increasing share in Turkey & South Asia

📆 Market Drivers

• India’s lower-than-official output, higher import tariffs, and comfortable stocks underpin local prices.
• Global trade flows reshuffling (Turkey/Russia/Kazakhstan alliance); Turkey’s changing procurement patterns.
• Australian weather has outsized influence on direction in Q3–Q4 2025.
• Speculative interest muted, with commercial players monitoring weather and Turkish buying closely.

🧭 Trading & Risk Outlook

• Hold/hedge positions in Indian domestic market until after October, when import prospects may shift post-stock drawdown.
• Monitor Australian drought updates; any downward revision to yield could catalyze global price spike, especially in red lentils.
• Canadian and Russian exporters to benefit from Turkish and South Asian demand; new-crop contracting advised, but with flexible execution terms on yields.
• Importers: Secure forward contracts for late summer/autumn, as Asian and East Mediterranean buyers may become aggressive if deficits occur.
• Short-term speculative activity likely range-bound; renewed bullishness possible only on weather or policy shocks.

⏳ 3-Day Exchange Price Forecast

Type	Exchange/Location	Current (USD/MT)	Forecast Range	Sentiment
Red Football	Ottawa (FOB)	2.48	2.45–2.50	Steady
Laird Green	Ottawa (FOB)	1.64	1.62–1.66	Neutral
Eston Green	Ottawa (FOB)	1.51	1.50–1.53	Stable
Small Green (org.)	Beijing (FOB)	1.43	1.42–1.45	Slightly Bullish
Small Green	Beijing (FOB)	1.32	1.30–1.33	Slightly Bullish