The global lentil market is in the midst of a significant transformation in 2024. Historically, Canada has held the role of top producer and primary supplier for key markets, especially India—the world’s largest lentil importer. However, shifting trade patterns, rising competition from emerging suppliers like Kazakhstan, and evolving procurement strategies among import giants are reshaping the competitive landscape. Canada’s estimated production remains strong at 2.4 million tons, but the nation’s grip on traditional export markets, particularly India, is loosening. New tariff regimes, higher logistics costs, and India’s pursuit of diversified sourcing have led to a notable downturn in Canadian exports. This has created a crucial opening for Kazakhstan, which is capitalizing on proximity, lower costs, and active export strategies to capture a larger share of Asian and Middle Eastern markets.
Analysts warn that while Canada remains a dominant force, its future in the world’s most lucrative lentil destinations is under threat. Supply chains are adjusting, and buyers are increasingly weighing cost, origin, and policy risks. As these global shifts unfold, careful observation and agile trading strategies are more essential than ever for producers, processors, and buyers. The following analysis breaks down current prices, supply-demand factors, regional production, and forward-looking fundamentals for lentil stakeholders.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Lentils dried
small, green
99.5%
FOB 1.32 €/kg
(from CN)
Lentils dried
small, green
99.5%
FOB 1.24 €/kg
(from CN)
Lentils dried
Red football
FOB 2.48 €/kg
(from CA)
📈 Prices
| Type | Origin | Purity | Organic | Delivery Terms | Price (EUR/kg) | Prev. Price | Last Update | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Small Green | China (Beijing) | 99.5% | Yes | FOB | 1.32 | 1.31 | 2025-08-20 | Firming |
| Small Green | China (Beijing) | 99.5% | No | FOB | 1.24 | 1.23 | 2025-08-20 | Firming |
| Red Football | Canada (Ottawa) | – | No | FOB | 2.48 | 2.48 | 2025-08-14 | Stable |
| Laird Green | Canada (Ottawa) | – | No | FOB | 1.66 | 1.66 | 2025-08-14 | Stable |
| Eston Green | Canada (Ottawa) | – | No | FOB | 1.53 | 1.53 | 2025-08-14 | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Canada: 2024 lentil production at ~2.4 million tons; exports pressured by falling Indian demand and increased global competition.
- Kazakhstan: Expanding production and exports, targeting traditional Canadian markets like India, Turkey, and the Middle East. Offers competitive pricing and logistics.
- India: Import volumes from Canada down sharply due to tariffs and high freight. Sourcing increasingly from Kazakhstan and smaller origins as domestic pulse policies support diversified procurement.
📊 Fundamentals
- Canada’s percentage of global lentil exports could decline further with more Kazakh and potentially Russian lentils entering Asia/MENA.
- Kazakhstan’s lentil area is up—2024 plantings hit record highs, and yields have been buoyed by favorable growing conditions.
- Global inventories remain comfortable, but the balance is tipping due to shifting trade corridors.
- Market sentiment: Mild bullish tilt for premium grades (especially organic) due to limited supply outside Canada/Australia; neutral to mildly bearish for conventional types amid ample Kazakh stocks.
🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact
- Canada (Saskatchewan): Recent reports indicate average rainfall, with no major weather shocks. Moisture is sufficient but some localized dryness reported. Crop prospects average-to-good, supporting baseline production projections.
- Kazakhstan: Abundant rainfall in key growing areas; above-trend yields likely. Harvest conditions are favorable, further boosting Kazakh export potential late in 2024.
- India: Monsoon progress has been satisfactory in pulse-growing states; no major supply shocks expected near-term.
🌏 Global Production & Stocks Comparison
| Country | 2024 Prod. (mn tons) | Stocks (est.) | 2023 Prod. (mn tons) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 2.4 | Moderate | 2.5 | ⬇ Slightly Down |
| Kazakhstan | 0.45 | High | 0.39 | ⬆ Up |
| India | 1.2 | Steady | 1.3 | ➡ Flat |
| Australia | 0.3 | Low | 0.34 | ⬇ Down |
📌 Market Drivers
- Indian import policy (tariffs, quotas) and procurement strategies
- Kazakhstan’s competitive export pricing and improving logistics
- Weather conditions in North America and Central Asia
- Speculative positioning has cooled since mid-2024 highs
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Expect stable-to-soft pricing for conventional Canadian lentils as Kazakh supply expands.
- Premiums likely for organic and specialty grades given limited alternative supply.
- Watch Indian government procurement policy closely; policy shifts could trigger short-term price volatility.
- Kazakh lentil exporters may see continued strong demand into winter as Asian buyers diversify.
- Producers: Secure forward contracts where possible, especially for organics and higher grades.
- Importers: Leverage competition between Canada and Kazakhstan for favorable terms but monitor logistics and quality differentials closely.
📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Market | Type (Grade) | Current (EUR/kg) | 3-Day Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ottawa (CA) | Red Football | 2.48 | Stable |
| Ottawa (CA) | Laird Green | 1.66 | Stable |
| Beijing (CN) | Small Green (organic) | 1.32 | Firming |
| Beijing (CN) | Small Green (conv.) | 1.24 | Firming |
