This season, the lentils market is defined by an unusual disconnect: excellent rainfall in Gujarat, usually a catalyst for bumper sowing, has instead coincided with an 18% plunge in lentil acreage. Distrust in procurement policy, after last season’s shortfall in government support at the Minimum Support Price (MSP), is driving farmers away from lentils to better-backed alternatives. This worrying trend signals not just short-term supply squeezes in India—one of the world’s top lentil consumers—but also exposes a larger vulnerability across global trade, where perceived policy risk trumps even ideal agronomic conditions.
With Canadian lentil prices showing mild week-on-week softness and Chinese green lentils also easing, international traders are watching India’s situation: will the acreage drop spark fresh import demand, or will government action steady farmer confidence? Explore below for price tables, supply-demand insights, regional weather impacts, and trading recommendations for the days ahead.
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Lentils dried
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FOB 2.48 €/kg
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Lentils dried
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FOB 1.66 €/kg
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Lentils dried
Eston Green
FOB 1.53 €/kg
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📈 Prices
| Type | Origin | Location | Purity/Organic | Delivery Terms | Latest Price (EUR/t) | Weekly Change (EUR/t) | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red football | Canada | Ottawa | Conventional | FOB | 2.46 | -0.01 | Soft |
| Laird Green | Canada | Ottawa | Conventional | FOB | 1.64 | -0.01 | Stable/Soft |
| Eston Green | Canada | Ottawa | Conventional | FOB | 1.51 | -0.01 | Stable/Soft |
| Small Green | China | Beijing | Organic | FOB | 1.30 | -0.02 | Soft |
| Small Green | China | Beijing | Conventional | FOB | 1.22 | -0.02 | Soft |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- India: Gujarat’s lentil area is down 18% year-on-year, offsetting excellent rains. Key cause: eroded farmer trust after last season’s poor government procurement at MSP.
- Canada: Canadian lentil prices remain soft as markets closely track potential India-led import surges if domestic shortages appear.
- China: Both organic and conventional small green lentil prices drift lower—ample stocks help offset India’s shortfall, but logistics and Indian import policy are crucial pivots.
📊 Fundamentals
- Policy Shift: Last season’s weak government procurement in India has had outsized influence, overwhelming favorable weather benefits.
- Crop Switching: Farmers have migrated to oilseeds and alternate pulses with better perceived market support.
- Inventories: Indian stockpiles are trending lower as sowing shrinks; Canadian stocks are healthy, and export volumes steady.
- Speculation: No pronounced speculative build-up; mostly a wait-and-see market with mild bearish sentiment outside India.
⛅ Weather Outlook
- Gujarat/India: Outstanding rainfall continues, creating optimal conditions for late-season lentil development (where sowing persists) and for other pulses.
- Canada: Western provinces report typical summer heat but adequate soil moisture. No major threats reported in the Prairie provinces.
- China: Northern plains experience steady, warm weather—favorable for lentil grain fill and harvest.
Effect: Weather remains supportive globally but is currently overshadowed by India’s policy and market sentiment factors.
🌐 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | 2024/25 Production Estimate (mt) | Stock Change |
|---|---|---|
| India | 1.1m (est.) | Falling |
| Canada | 2.3m (est.) | Stable |
| China | 0.3m (est.) | Stable |
| Turkey/EU | 0.25m (est.) | Stable/Increasing |
📅 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Monitor Indian government policy—any intervention (MSP, procurement drives) would rapidly tighten international markets.
- Supply risk for India-based buyers—secure forward contracts if stocks are low.
- Canadian/Chinese producers: Hold if possible, as short-term downside is limited and any demand uptick will improve prices.
- Traders: Watch for import duty changes and port activity in Indian subcontinent—entry signals for spot buying.
- Weather remains supportive: Track late Kharif season progress—unexpected weather events could trigger volatility.
🗓️ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region | Price Direction | Forecast Range (EUR/t) |
|---|---|---|
| CBOT (reference) | Flat to slightly lower | 1.55–2.48 |
| Euronext (reference) | Stable | 1.60–2.50 |
| FOB CA (Ottawa) | Stable/Soft | 1.50–2.50 |
| FOB CN (Beijing) | Soft | 1.20–1.32 |