Lentils Market 2025: Price Pressures Persist Amid Policy Support and Global Uncertainty

Despite large-scale procurement efforts announced in India, the world’s leading pulse importer, the lentils market remains mired in bearish sentiment as prices continue to underperform key support levels. The Indian government’s ambitious USD 1.66 billion intervention for 2025–26—mainly targeting tur and urad, but signaling broader support for pulses—has failed to lift prices materially as zero-duty imports, ample global inventories, and tepid demand weigh heavily on the market. With spot mandi prices for major pulses trading well below official Minimum Support Prices (MSPs), and global traders still navigating uncertain weather patterns in Canada’s, Australia’s, and Russia’s key lentil belts, the outlook remains cautious.

Meanwhile, Canadian export values remain subdued, while growers keep an eye on the fall harvest and market-access news from South Asia. Add to this a mixed weather outlook and rising government stockpiles, and the scene is set for continued volatility. Market participants will need to closely track procurement implementation and evolving import policies in India, as well as supply-side signals from ongoing harvests.

📈 Latest Market Prices

Type	Origin	Location	Organic	Price (EUR/t)	Last Week (EUR/t)	Change	Date	Sentiment
Red Football	Canada	Ottawa	No	2.50	2.48	+0.02	2025-09-19	Stable/Firm
Laird, Green	Canada	Ottawa	No	1.68	1.66	+0.02	2025-09-19	Stable
Eston Green	Canada	Ottawa	No	1.55	1.53	+0.02	2025-09-19	Stable
Small, Green	China	Beijing	Yes	1.32	1.34	-0.02	2025-09-17	Soft
Small, Green	China	Beijing	No	1.23	1.25	-0.02	2025-09-17	Soft

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Government Intervention: India’s procurement at MSP, with up to 100% of tur and urad targeted, aims to stabilize prices and support farmer incomes, especially as domestic prices remain below MSP for multiple pulses.
• Import Policy: Zero-duty imports and subdued offtake have kept prices in check, despite measures restricting imports of some pulses in past years.
• Global Inventories: Canadian and Australian inventories are adequate; Black Sea supplies steady, limiting upside risk.
• Crop Acreage: Lower Indian pulse acreage in some regions is noted but offset by the expected bumper procurement.
• Currency Impact: A strengthening USD versus INR and EUR supports import economics for India, weighing on global offers.
• Speculative Interest: Managed money remains neutral to negative, as evidenced by lack of a price response to Indian news.

📊 Fundamentals

• India: Remains the world’s top lentil importer and price maker. Government MSP for tur (USD 96.0/t) vs. mandi price (USD 74.7/t) highlighted across pulses. Immediate procurement of 114,000 t tur and 228,000 t urad in UP; 1.26 Mt groundnut in Gujarat with minor lentil volumes (as part of the pulse segment) suggest more government buying in coming weeks.
• Canada: Main supplier to global trade, recent warm and dry weather accelerated harvest, with satisfactory yields but some concerns for minor quality issues in late-sown fields.
• Australia: Crop in mostly good condition; rains in southern growing regions have boosted establishment, though disease risk rises if wet pattern persists.
• Lentil Exports: Canadian lentil export pace remains slower versus last year, pressured by Indian import policies and competition from other pulses.

Country	2024/25 Prod. (kt)	2024/25 Exports (kt)	2024/25 End Stocks (kt)
Canada	2,350	1,800	600
India	1,280	70	900*
Australia	634	570	66
Turkey	355	250	30

*Indian ending stocks include government reserves and commercial inventories.

☀️ Weather Outlook

• Canada (Prairies): Recent rainfall benefitted later-maturing crops in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, but rapid drydown means harvest nearly complete. No major frost risk in the immediate forecast, supporting finishing of late fields.
• Australia: Cooler, wetter start in southern zones; positive for yield but risk of foliar disease remains if rain persists.
• India: Kharif season progressing under mixed conditions; above-normal monsoon early but recent dry spells in central India affect late-planted pulses; no weather shocks seen for lentil segment.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Physical offers for red lentils and large green lentils firm, but market upside capped by India’s import policies and strong inventory position.
• Monitor India’s procurement pace and any MSP updates—potentially bullish for international offers if domestic stocks run tight.
• Australia’s late crop development and quality risk merit monitoring by importers and exporters alike.
• Short-term price dips offer buying opportunities for traders needing coverage into Q4 2025, especially for Canadian origins.
• Beware currency fluctuation: a firmer USD may pressure international EUR-denominated offers lower.
• Risk remains of further declines for green lentils (esp. from China), given slow offtake and modest demand in Europe and MENA.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (EUR/t)

Type	Origin	19 Sep	20 Sep	21 Sep
Red Football	CA	2.50	2.51	2.51
Laird, Green	CA	1.68	1.68	1.69
Eston Green	CA	1.55	1.55	1.56
Small, Green (organic)	CN	1.32	1.31	1.30
Small, Green	CN	1.23	1.22	1.22

Moderate firmness expected for Canadian types while Chinese-origin prices likely to soften further.