Lentils Market Analysis: Stable Prices Amid Thin Volumes as Buyers Remain Cautious

The global lentils market is navigating a period of subdued activity as limited demand from processing mills and cautious trading set the tone for prices and volumes. After the weekend’s trading resumption, the broader pulse market reflected a mixed sentiment, with lentils (masoor) maintaining their price levels amid thin trading. Unlike chickpeas, which are trending downwards due to sustained weak demand, lentils have shown resilience, buoyed by steady arrivals and a lack of aggressive bulk procurement. In India’s major markets, particularly Indore and Delhi, prices have stabilized, though volumes remain modest as both mills and traders adopt a measured approach following recent volatility.

Internationally, major export origins such as Canada and China display relative price stability, though minor adjustments reflect regional supply nuances and currency movements. As the market awaits the boost from seasonal and festive demand, and with traders monitoring government stock movements and import policies closely, sentiment remains cautious but not bearish. The market’s steady balance suggests a wait-and-see approach is guiding most participants, setting the stage for possible shifts in early autumn depending on weather patterns and procurement activity.

📈 Prices

Type	Origin	Location	Organic	Purity	FOB Price (EUR/t)	Weekly Change	Last Update
Red football	Canada	Ottawa	No	–	2.46	0%	2025-08-02
Laird, Green	Canada	Ottawa	No	–	1.64	0%	2025-08-02
Eston Green	Canada	Ottawa	No	–	1.51	0%	2025-08-02
Small, green	China	Beijing	Yes	99.5%	1.28	-1.5%	2025-07-30
Small, green	China	Beijing	No	99.5%	1.20	-1.6%	2025-07-30

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Thin trading volumes in major Indian markets—particularly Indore—reflect ongoing caution among buyers due to previous price surges.
• Demand from processing mills remains muted, contributing to subdued offtake despite steady arrivals that are preventing price drops.
• Internationally, Canadian and Chinese export offers have held steady, with minor negative adjustments in China likely due to subtle changes in local demand and logistics.
• US and EU import demand remains stable, with no significant surge expected until post-summer seasonal buying starts.

📊 Fundamentals

• Recent Trends: Masoor (lentils) in India are steady in the USD 835–850/quintal range; Masoor dal prices between USD 1,075–1,130/quintal depending on quality.
• Substitute Pulses: Chickpeas (chana) face downward pressure due to persisting weak demand; arhar and urad display relative firmness, but do not directly affect lentil sentiment at this time.
• Speculation: No major speculative positions visible. Trading houses cautiously building inventories in light of upcoming festival demand.
• Global Inventory: Canadian stocks are adequate post-harvest; mild concerns regarding North American weather could affect quality for next shipments. Chinese stocks stable with competitive pricing for small green lentils.

☁️ Weather Outlook

• Canada (Prairies): Currently experiencing seasonally warm temperatures and below-normal rainfall in Saskatchewan and Alberta, which may slightly stress maturing lentil crops, though no major risk is foreseen unless dryness persists into the next 2–3 weeks.
• India (Central/North): Monsoon activity is near normal in leading lentil-growing areas, supporting adequate soil moisture for upcoming sowing. Excess rainfall could delay harvesting if extended.
• China (Northern Plains): Stable, with no significant weather threats currently reported. Mild cooling in nights aids in crop maturation and quality retention.

🌾 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2024 Production (est. 000 t)	Stocks (000 t)	Notes
Canada	2,300	420	Largest exporter; mostly red, green varieties
India	1,250	230	Largest consumer; domestic stocks moderate
Australia	410	60	Strong export year; steady to slightly higher
China	350	70	Mostly small green lentils; serves Asian markets
EU (France, Spain)	95	15	Specialty grades, mostly for regional consumption

📌 Market Drivers

• Muted mill and retail demand post recent rally; buyers likely waiting for festivity-led procurement.
• No significant government stock interventions or major imports expected in coming weeks.
• Weather in Canada critical; extended dryness may impact yield and quality of late-maturing crops.
• Stable global stocks provide a buffer against short-term supply shocks.

🔭 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Expect current prices to remain stable with mild downside risk if additional mill demand does not materialize before autumn.
• Buyers: Consider opportunistic purchases if prices dip below current FOB offers, especially for high-quality green and red lentils from Canada.
• Sellers: Maintain close watch on Canadian crop development; delay bulk sales unless further weather risks emerge and tighten the market.
• Monitor Indian government procurement and import policy updates, which could shift sentiment quickly.

📆 3-Day Price Forecast

Exchange/Market	Current Price (EUR/t)	Forecast Range (EUR/t)	Sentiment
CBOT (Canada, Red Football)	2.46	2.44 – 2.48	Stable/Neutral
FOB Ottawa (Green, Laird)	1.64	1.62 – 1.66	Stable
FOB Beijing (Small Green, Non-Organic)	1.20	1.18 – 1.22	Mildly Weak