Lentils Market Holds Firm as Demand Meets Limited Arrivals: Short-term Corrections Possible

In recent days, the lentils market has shown notable resilience with prices edging higher, propelled by steady domestic demand and limited arrivals. The Hyderabad line variety has appreciated approximately $0.07 per kg, underscoring the influence of both sustained consumption and strategic profit-booking among stockists.

While container trade in New Delhi and other key mandis has softened due to tepid miller interest, the overall sentiment remains bullish. Current prices in major Indian mandis are quoted between $80 and $82 per 100 kg, illustrating underlying market strength, although near-term technical resistance is anticipated. Market experts suggest that even if a short correction unfolds at these levels, downside should be restricted given robust fundamental support.

📈 Prices at a Glance

Variety / Market	Location	Price (EUR/kg)	Previous (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Red Football	Ottawa, CA	2.50	2.50	0.00	Steady/Firm
Laird, Green	Ottawa, CA	1.68	1.68	0.00	Steady
Eston Green	Ottawa, CA	1.55	1.55	0.00	Steady
Small, Green (Organic)	Beijing, CN	1.27	1.30	-0.03	Weaker
Small, Green	Beijing, CN	1.19	1.22	-0.03	Weaker

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics

• Demand: Consumer and miller demand in South Asia remains robust, supporting local prices even as trade activity in Delhi tapers off.
• Supply: Arrivals stay limited, partly due to cautious release by stockists in expectation of further price gains.
• Trade Flows: Export offers out of Canada and China remain largely unchanged in EUR terms, with only slight declines for Chinese small, green lentils.
• Profit-booking: Some Indian stockists are selling at highs, but this has yet to trigger significant downward movement.

📊 Market Fundamentals & Drivers

• Recent Developments: Hyderabad line lentils up $0.07 per kg in past several days; Indian spot market rates firm at $80–82/100 kg.
• Market Resistance: Analysts expect resistance near current levels. Corrections, if any, should remain shallow owing to demand support.
• Stockholding Activity: Risk of short-term liquidations by profit-takers could induce minor volatility.
• Global Context: Large global inventories and stable offer prices in Canada ($2.50/kg for Red Football) and China reflect predictable export flows.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Yield Impact Analysis

• Canada (Prairie Provinces): Recent reports indicate average moisture and cool spells. No significant weather threats are present, ensuring stable yield expectations for late-harvested lentils.
• India (Key Growing States): North India’s rabi cropping is approaching; current mild temperatures are favorable for sowing, though delays in monsoon withdrawal could affect dryland seeding.
• China: Growing conditions for late lentil crop are reported normal; harvests are mostly complete.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks Comparison

Country	2024/25 Prod. (est. 1,000 MT)	Stocks (1,000 MT)	Notes
Canada	2,200	550	Main supplier, steady export flows
India	1,160	370	High domestic use, limited surplus
Australia	640	130	Good yields expected
China	210	65	Marginal exporter
Turkey	300	60	Stable

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Importers: Consider locking in prices for prompt delivery; limited arrivals suggest stable to firm near-term trend.
• Stockists: Further profits likely capped; watch for local technical resistance.
• Exporters (Canada/China): Maintain offers; demand from India, Egypt, and South Asia supportive despite mild softening in smaller grades from China.
• Short-term Correction: Monitor for brief dips on profit-booking but prepare for quick rebounds.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Location	Variety	Current (EUR/kg)	3-Day Forecast (EUR/kg)	Trend
Ottawa (CA)	Red Football	2.50	2.50–2.53	Firm/Steady
Ottawa (CA)	Laird, Green	1.68	1.68–1.70	Firm
Ottawa (CA)	Eston Green	1.55	1.55–1.57	Firm
Beijing (CN)	Small, Green (Org.)	1.27	1.24–1.27	Soft/Stable
Beijing (CN)	Small, Green	1.19	1.17–1.19	Soft/Stable