The global lentils market is in the throes of a significant upward shift, driven by persistent supply-side constraints and robust demand across both wholesale and retail channels. In key growing regions like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, lentil prices continue to hover near their yearly highs, reflecting a confluence of both structural and seasonal factors. With small-sized lentils trading between $0.78–$0.83 per kg and bold grades approaching $0.88 per kg, market participants are bracing for further gains, especially as fresh arrivals have dropped 30% year-on-year. The availability squeeze is most keenly felt in major procurement markets, where diminished arrivals and lower production, particularly from Madhya Pradesh, have accelerated the bullish trend.
Multiple drivers converge here: low miller inventories, sluggish imports from Canada and Australia, damaged local crops due to adverse weather, and strong downstream demand from both processors and households. Notably, Delhi saw lentil prices rise from $0.76 to $0.81 per kg month-over-month—a trend mirrored internationally, with both Canadian and Chinese FOB prices softening but remaining elevated due to external demand and logistical uncertainties. With annual global production around 2.8 million metric tons and stockpiles running lean, the current price rally appears sturdy and sustainable. Continued monitoring of weather patterns in India and importing regions will be essential as global market sentiment remains tightly bound to short-term supply and logistics. Price risks, as reflected in both wholesale and retail markets, are clearly skewed to the upside in this environment of tightening fundamentals and persistent demand pressure.
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📈 Prices
| Location/Exchange | Type | Latest Price | Previous Price | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uttar Pradesh Mandis | Small | $0.78–$0.83/kg | $0.73–$0.78/kg | +6.8% | Bullish |
| Uttar Pradesh Mandis | Bold | $0.84–$0.88/kg | $0.79–$0.83/kg | +6.3% | Bullish |
| Delhi Wholesale | Standard | $0.81/kg | $0.76/kg | +6.6% | Bullish |
| Retail India | Bold | $1.00–$1.02/kg | $0.93–$0.95/kg | +7.9% | Bullish |
| Ottawa FOB (CA) | Red Football | €2.46/kg | €2.47/kg | -0.4% | Stable |
| Ottawa FOB (CA) | Laird Green | €1.64/kg | €1.65/kg | -0.6% | Softening |
| Ottawa FOB (CA) | Eston Green | €1.51/kg | €1.52/kg | -0.7% | Softening |
| Beijing FOB (CN) | Small, Green (Organic) | €1.30/kg | €1.32/kg | -1.5% | Softening |
| Beijing FOB (CN) | Small, Green (Conv.) | €1.22/kg | €1.24/kg | -1.6% | Softening |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Arrivals: Fresh arrivals in eastern India down by ~30%, especially for small-sized lentils due to tight harvest cycles.
- Carryover Stocks: Sufficient in East India, but lower among millers; inventory drawdown continues.
- Imports: Shipments from Canada and Australia remain limited due to both reduced global stocks and logistical costs.
- Demand: Remains steady from processors, households, and retailers, supporting firm prices at all levels.
📊 Fundamentals
- Production: India estimates 2.8 million metric tons for the current year, a modest decline due to weather disruptions and reduced acreage.
- Inventories: Both domestic and global inventories are at multi-year lows, underpinning bullish sentiment.
- Weather: Reduced rainfall in major Indian lentil belts (U.P., Bihar, M.P.) and late monsoon recovery are constraining yields. In Canada, recent precipitation has aided crop development, but cool temperatures are slowing fill rates in Saskatchewan, limiting export readiness.
- Quality: Increased reports of damaged/downgraded lentil lots across some mandis, compounding supply worries.
☀️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact
- India: Near-term forecasts show continued below-normal rainfall in main lentil-growing states through the next week. This will likely restrict late planting and hinder grain fill, pressuring yields downward. Temperatures hover above average, hastening crop maturity and further tightening supply potential.
- Canada: Brief showers improve topsoil moisture in lentil-growing prairies, but colder-than-normal night temps may delay final maturation and harvest, pushing export schedules later.
🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2023/24 Production (MMT) | Estimated Stocks (MMT) | Main Export Destinations |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 2.8 | 0.30 | Domestic, Bangladesh, Middle East |
| Canada | 2.2 | 0.35 | India, Turkey, Europe |
| Australia | 0.8 | 0.10 | South Asia, Europe |
| Turkey | 0.39 | 0.03 | Middle East, North Africa |
📆 Outlook & Trading Recommendations
- Hold or accumulate positions on dips—fundamentals remain tight and demand resilient.
- Watch for weather and shipment updates from Canada and Australia; any further harvest delays will add bullish momentum.
- Processors and bulk buyers should secure supplies in the next 2–3 weeks ahead of potential spot surges.
- Retailers can expect retail prices to maintain premiums on bold and high-quality lentils into the next month.
- Monitor government procurement activity in India and import policy signals for signs of potential market intervention.
⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region/Market | Type | 3-Day Price Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Uttar Pradesh Mandis | Small | $0.80–$0.84/kg |
| Uttar Pradesh Mandis | Bold | $0.85–$0.89/kg |
| Delhi Wholesale | Standard | $0.82–$0.84/kg |
| Ottawa FOB (CA) | Red Football | €2.46–€2.48/kg |
| Ottawa FOB (CA) | Laird Green | €1.64–€1.66/kg |