Despite a dynamic agricultural landscape, the global lentils market is entering a period of steady, yet nuanced transformation. India, the world’s pulses powerhouse, is ramping up pulse output by over 8 million tonnes in the coming decade according to the OECD-FAO Outlook 2025–2034. While lentils are not isolated in the forecast, they remain a pivotal segment, especially as yield gains are projected to come from diversified cropland strategies like intercropping with cereals. Nevertheless, compared to more investment-heavy sectors like cereals and oilseeds, lentil productivity will likely trail due to less focus on high-yield seed varieties and modern irrigation.
On the policy side, mechanisms such as Minimum Support Prices and selective government procurement lend underlying price stability for growers. Trade sees robust momentum; global pulses shipment (lentils included) is expected to rise from 20 to 23 million tonnes in the decade ahead, with Canada, Australia, and Russia solidifying their exporter dominance. The pricing picture is mixed: nominal lentil prices could dip slightly in 2025 before a slow recovery, but inflation-adjusted values will likely remain under structural pressure. For traders and end-users, navigating these crosswinds means close attention to local weather, currency shifts, speculative flows, and evolving government programs.
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Lentils dried
Red football
FOB 2.47 €/kg
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Lentils dried
Laird, Green
FOB 1.65 €/kg
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Lentils dried
Eston Green
FOB 1.52 €/kg
(from CA)
📈 Lentil Prices & Market Sentiment
| Exchange/Location | Product Type | Organic | Country | FOB Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ottawa (CA) | Red football | No | Canada | 2.47 | 2.50 | -1.2% | Neutral/Soft |
| Ottawa (CA) | Laird, Green | No | Canada | 1.65 | 1.68 | -1.8% | Soft |
| Ottawa (CA) | Eston Green | No | Canada | 1.52 | 1.55 | -1.9% | Soft |
| Beijing (CN) | small, green | Yes | China | 1.32 | 1.35 | -2.2% | Weak |
| Beijing (CN) | small, green | No | China | 1.24 | 1.26 | -1.6% | Weak |
🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics
- Production Growth: India, already the leading producer, aims to boost pulses output by 8 million t by 2034. Lentils gain via intercropping and MSP support, though lagging yields remain an issue.
- Trade Expansion: Global pulses trade will expand from 20 to 23 million t in ten years. Canada strengthens its top exporter role, rising to 5.7 million t, with Australia and Russia following.
- Importers: India remains primary importer despite rising output; Bangladesh, Egypt, and Turkey play substantial roles in global lentil demand.
- Farm Economics: MSPs and inclusion in government procurement programs offer support, but lentils less favored than wheat or rice.
📊 Market Fundamentals
- Yield improvements are expected via improved seeds and intercropping, but lag versus cereals owing to lower investment and infrastructure limitations.
- Nominal prices may dip for 2025 before slowly recovering amid global supply expansion; real prices (inflation-adjusted) will likely continue to erode this decade.
- Speculative activity and FX volatility can amplify short-term price swings, as traders watch North American and Asian harvests.
⛅ Weather Outlook for Major Growing Regions
- Canada: Recent precipitation is near-normal in Saskatchewan/Manitoba, lending optimism for average yields for 2025, though late July heatwaves could pressure sensitive stages in Western farms.
- India: Monsoon progress remains satisfactory in lentil belt (Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh), but patchy rainfall and local water table stress could curb yield gains if dry pockets persist into August.
- Australia: Mild El Niño recovery phase, with southern states likely to experience drier-than-average winter, raising concerns over lentil flower/early podding in Victoria and South Australia.
🌐 Global Production & Stock Table
| Country | 2024/25 Output (est., million t) | Stock Change (YoY) |
|---|---|---|
| India | ~1.5 | Up |
| Canada | ~3.2 | Stable/Up |
| Australia | ~1.4 | Slightly Down |
| Russia | ~0.9 | Stable |
| Turkey | ~0.4 | Up |
📌 Market Drivers & Speculative Positioning
- Pulse-focused government support (MSP, procurement schemes) continues to temper downside price risks in India.
- Canadian and Australian exporters monitor international freight rates and currency trends, as well as possible pest/disease developments due to variable weather.
- Speculative short positions grow as yield prospects improve, tempering bullish enthusiasm near-term.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Buyers: Monitor spot markets for further price softness into early Q3 2025 as new Northern Hemisphere crops are marketed. Consider forward positions once weather-related risks abate by late August.
- Producers: Lock in sales on partial rallies; incremental sales advised in line with local yield realizations and currency strength.
- Traders: Expect tepid price recovery until late 2025; weather and trade policy shifts are key triggers for volatility.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Exchange/Location | Product Type | Price Today (EUR/kg) | 3-Day Forecast (EUR/kg) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ottawa (CA) | Red football | 2.47 | 2.45 – 2.48 | Stable/Soft |
| Ottawa (CA) | Laird, Green | 1.65 | 1.62 – 1.66 | Soft |
| Ottawa (CA) | Eston Green | 1.52 | 1.50 – 1.54 | Soft |
| Beijing (CN) | small, green (organic) | 1.32 | 1.28 – 1.33 | Weak |
| Beijing (CN) | small, green (conv.) | 1.24 | 1.21 – 1.25 | Weak |
