The lentils market is entering a critical phase as prices in Canada stabilize after prior volatility, yet underlying fundamentals point to tightening supply and a cautiously bullish sentiment among traders. Recent reports indicate that reduced availability from Australia, Nepal, and Myanmar is poised to impact global supply flows, potentially constraining inventory in key demand centers. Although bulk demand from major buyers and domestic dal mills remains steady, market watchers are closely monitoring upcoming harvests, weather events, and global trade shifts for further cues.
At present, lentil prices have settled into a range of $81.50–$82.50 per quintal, retreating from earlier highs around $90 per quintal. Analysts suggest that if weather conditions—particularly in Canada and India—persist unfavorable, prices could rebound toward the $84–$90 range by late September or early October. The crucial variable lies in the harvest prospects across India, which, when combined with shifting global supply dynamics, will determine whether the recent stability persists or the market enters a renewed uptrend. As a result, the market mood is cautiously bullish, with participants awaiting fresh crop arrivals and the next wave of demand forecasts.
📈 Prices
| Type | Origin | FOB Location | Organic | Purity | Price (EUR/kg) | Last Week (EUR/kg) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red football | Canada | Ottawa | No | – | 2.48 | 2.48 | Stable |
| Laird, Green | Canada | Ottawa | No | – | 1.66 | 1.66 | Stable |
| Eston Green | Canada | Ottawa | No | – | 1.53 | 1.53 | Stable |
| Small, green | China | Beijing | Yes | 99.5% | 1.34 | 1.36 | Slightly Bearish |
| Small, green | China | Beijing | No | 99.5% | 1.25 | 1.27 | Slightly Bearish |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Canadian supplies have stabilized, providing a short-term anchor to prices.
- Reports of reduced shipment potential from Australia, Nepal, and Myanmar signal a tightening global market for the coming weeks.
- Bulk demand is resilient, particularly from key importers and domestic consumption in major pulse-consuming regions.
- India’s upcoming harvest is a wild card, with new arrivals set to influence both regional and international pricing.
📊 Fundamentals
- USDA and trade estimates point to a marginal decrease in world lentil inventories, compounded by logistical challenges and adverse weather conditions in secondary growing regions.
- Speculative activity remains modest, with major participants awaiting definitive harvest and demand signals.
- Inventory drawdowns in Canada and weakened export flows from competing origins support a mildly bullish longer-term outlook.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- Canada: The Prairies have seen mixed weather recently; some regions received beneficial rains, but localized drought persists, threatening late-season crop quality and yields.
- India: Advance forecasts indicate above-normal rainfall in some northern growing states, while central and southern regions face erratic monsoons and below-average precipitation. This may curb yield potential in key production belts and delay harvest timelines.
- Australia: Dry conditions, especially in pulse-growing states, are expected to further constrain output this season.
- Myanmar & Nepal: Weather-related logistics disruptions remain a risk, impacting export pipeline reliability.
🌐 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | 2024/25 Production (kt) | 2024/25 Ending Stocks (kt) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 2,200 | 505 | -4% Production, -5% Stocks |
| India | 1,120 | 340 | Stable Production, -10% Stocks |
| Australia | 330 | 68 | -10% Production, -15% Stocks |
| Turkey | 355 | 45 | Stable |
| Myanmar/Nepal | 280 | 15 | -12% Production |
📆 Forecast & Recommendations
- Weather uncertainty and tightening global stocks support a cautiously bullish near-term bias.
- If Indian harvests underperform and Australian exports remain disrupted, expect price momentum into the $84–$90 per quintal range by late September/early October.
- Buyers should consider strategic coverage over the next 2–4 weeks to hedge against a supply-driven price rebound.
- Producers are advised to monitor pre-harvest weather closely and lock in volumes opportunistically on any near-term price rallies.
- Watch for updated official stock reports and demand guidance from India and major importers to confirm trend direction.
🗓️ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Exchange/Market | Current Price (USD/quintal) | 3-Day Forecast | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canada FOB | 81.50–82.50 | 82.00–83.00 | Cautiously Bullish |
| India NCDEX (Spot) | 82.00 | 82.50–84.00 | Neutral-to-Bullish |
| Sydney FOB | 85.00 | 85.00–86.00 | Stable |
