The lentil market finds itself at a critical juncture, shaped by persistent weather challenges in India, steady but expensive Canadian supplies, and swelling demand from Asia and the Middle East. India, the world’s largest lentil consumer and a major producer, is facing a turbulent kharif season following relentless rains that have inflicted extensive crop damage in Karnataka, Maharashtra, and parts of Madhya Pradesh. With harvest delays and quality deterioration dominating market talk, there is growing anxiety that overall production will fail to meet last year’s volume, tightening the supply not just domestically but globally, as India’s import requirements could spike. Meanwhile, international prices reflect both drought concerns in key growing regions and the spillover from India’s troubles. Canadian red and green lentil prices remain firm, underpinned by stable FOB offers as Canada gears up for its main harvest amid variable weather.
The market’s focus will remain on weather patterns in both the subcontinent and North America over the coming days and weeks. Should adverse conditions persist in India or further impact North American yields, buyers may face higher prices and limited availability—especially for premium grades. Overall, the sentiment is cautiously bullish as fundamentals tighten, inventories shrink, and speculative interest grows. Market participants are advised to monitor updates closely and consider securing forward contracts in light of uncertain production outcomes and freight bottlenecks.
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Lentils dried
small, green
99.5%
FOB 1.36 €/kg
(from CN)
Lentils dried
small, green
99.5%
FOB 1.27 €/kg
(from CN)
Lentils dried
Red football
FOB 2.48 €/kg
(from CA)
📈 Prices: Market Snapshot
| Origin | Type | Purity/Organic | Delivery Terms | Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Price | Change (%) | Update Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China (Beijing) | Lentils dried, small green | 99.5%, Organic | FOB | 1.36 | 1.31 | +3.8% | 2025-09-03 |
| China (Beijing) | Lentils dried, small green | 99.5%, Conv. | FOB | 1.27 | 1.22 | +4.1% | 2025-09-03 |
| Canada (Ottawa) | Lentils dried, Red football | Conv. | FOB | 2.48 | 2.48 | 0.0% | 2025-08-29 |
| Canada (Ottawa) | Lentils dried, Laird Green | Conv. | FOB | 1.66 | 1.66 | 0.0% | 2025-08-29 |
| Canada (Ottawa) | Lentils dried, Eston Green | Conv. | FOB | 1.53 | 1.53 | 0.0% | 2025-08-29 |
🌍 Supply & Demand: Key Developments
- India: Excessive rainfall in August led to significant moong (green gram) losses in Karnataka and Maharashtra. Karnataka districts saw up to 186% above-normal rain during harvest, causing high moisture and low-quality arrivals. Rajasthan, India’s top moong state, faces risks if rains persist.
- Production Outlook: Despite an increase in planted area (3.41m ha vs. 3.39m ha), yields are set to decline due to weather damage. 2024 kharif moong production was 1.75m tonnes, total output reached 3.82m tonnes. 2025 may fall short unless weather improves rapidly.
- Canada: Prices remain stable for key lentil types. Harvest is underway with variable yields due to spotty drought and cool spells in Saskatchewan. Export demand steady, but logistics pose risks.
- Other exporters: Australia and Turkey witnessing firm international inquiries, with reduced Indian output likely encouraging imports from these origins.
- Global stocks: Tightening, especially for premium and organic grades. Importers in the Middle East and South Asia gearing up purchases amid rising Indian needs.
📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers
- Weather Damage: Confirmed widespread crop damage in Karnataka (India), raising uncertainty for the forthcoming Indian harvest.
- Crop Acreage: Slight gains in sown area offset by lower yield prospects.
- Speculative Activity: Rising interest amidst tightening stocks, with traders hedging against further price gains.
- USDA/Trade Data: India’s moong/lentil import requirements may rise significantly in coming months.
- Currency Movements: Recent mild strengthening of USD adds minor upward pressure to international offers priced in other currencies.
☀️ Weather Outlook: Key Lentil Regions
- India: Extended monsoon activity forecast in Western and Central India until mid-September. Risk of more rain could hurt Rajasthan and delay recoveries in damaged zones.
- Canada: Mixed outlook for the Prairie Provinces; Saskatoon expecting a brief dry window allowing harvest progress, but localized rainfall and cool nights may impact quality and late-maturing fields.
- Australia: Precipitation next week to remain in normal range, aiding late development and supporting export supplies.
🌐 Production & Stocks: Global Comparison
| Country | 2024 Production (kt) | 2023 Production (kt) | 2024-25 Stock Trends |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 3,820 | 3,940 | Declining, risk of further fall |
| Canada | 2,120 | 2,300 | Stable, but tight for reds |
| Australia | 1,250 | 1,150 | Improving after rains |
| Turkey | 360 | 340 | Stable |
📆 Trading Outlook & Key Takeaways
- Bullish momentum likely to continue, especially for quality grades and organic lentils.
- Indian crop outcome is the biggest wild card for prices; close monitoring required.
- Importers: Consider forward coverage, particularly for Q4 2025 and early 2026 needs.
- Producers: Favor selling on rallies near recent highs; keep watch on logistics and currency developments.
- Buyers: Hedge against freight delays and price spikes by locking in spot and near-term contracts.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
- FOB Beijing (Small Green, Org.): EUR 1.35–1.37/kg (steady, slight upward bias)
- FOB Ottawa (Red Football): EUR 2.48–2.52/kg (firm, supported by Indian demand)
- FOB Ottawa (Laird/Eston Green): EUR 1.53–1.68/kg (stable)
