Lentils Market Under Pressure: Record-Low Prices and Global Competition Challenge Producers

The global lentils market is navigating a period of intense pressure, as prices have tumbled to historical lows—falling between 5% and 20% over the past month. The main driver is a surge in harvest volumes from major producers, including Canada, Australia, Russia, and a number of African countries, all aggressively vying for export market share. This increase in supply coincides with Indian growers preparing to bring their own crops—urad, tur (pigeon peas), masur (red lentils), and moth dal (green lentils)—to market, compounding concerns. For many Indian farmers, heavy rains in key producing states during August and September have already hampered yields.

Now, these weather-related challenges are being exacerbated by unfavorable global price dynamics. Reports from the trading floor highlight an unprecedented convergence of prices between origins, with little differentiation between Canadian, Australian, and Russian lentils. Yellow peas, a closely related pulse, have faced a dramatic price collapse, signaling broader stresses in the pulse sector. This market landscape points to heightened competition, squeezed producer margins, and a challenging short-term outlook—particularly for exporters dependent on the Indian market and Indian farmers facing both weather and market risks.

📈 Lentils Prices Snapshot

Type	Origin	Location	Organic	Purity	Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Red Football	Canada	Ottawa	No	–	2.50	2.50	0%	Stable, bearish undertone
Laird Green	Canada	Ottawa	No	–	1.68	1.68	0%	Stable, bearish
Eston Green	Canada	Ottawa	No	–	1.55	1.55	0%	Stable, bearish
Small Green	China	Beijing	Yes	99.5%	1.30	1.32	-1.5%	Weakening
Small Green	China	Beijing	No	99.5%	1.22	1.23	-0.8%	Bearish

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Record harvests from Canada, Australia, Russia, and Africa are saturating export markets, driving prices lower.
• India’s role as the world’s top pulse importer is key. Yet, domestic challenges (weather damage, harvesting difficulties) add to grower uncertainty.
• Minimal price spread between origins—Canadian, Australian, and Russian lentils are all trading within a narrow band, removing regional price premiums.
• Yellow peas collapse signals broad demand problems within pulses, further limiting lentil market support.

📊 Market Fundamentals

• Global Stock Levels: Abundant due to strong North American and Australian crops. Inventory build-up is likely if export pace does not accelerate.
• Speculative Positioning: Commercials stay mostly out, while funds remain absent due to absent upward momentum and weak demand signals.
• USDA & Trade Reports: Recent USDA reports confirm record yields in Canadian and US lentil-growing zones; Indian government projections show reduced domestic supply due to weather impacts.

☀️ Weather Outlook

• Canada: Favorable harvest weather continues, but dryness in parts of Saskatchewan may limit future planting potential.
• India: Persistent rainfall in Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, and Uttar Pradesh is delaying harvest and reducing yield prospects for local lentils (masur dal).
• Australia: Stable weather; no major disruptions are expected for the remainder of the season.
• Northern Hemisphere (Russia, China): Autumn weather largely supportive, but cooler night temperatures could affect late sowings.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2025E Prod. (mln t)	Stocks (mln t)	Notable Trends
Canada	2.7	0.65	Near-record output, stocks up
Australia	1.1	0.28	Strong exports, ample carryover
Russia	0.50	0.12	Rising share of trade
India	1.5*	0.19	Weather-damaged, lower output
China	0.20	0.04	Flat production

*Masur dal (red lentil) only. Figures are indicative.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 📉 Bearish momentum dominates—expect further price weakness in the coming weeks as global inventories weigh.
• 📦 Exporters: Consider accelerating shipments, offering flexible pricing or targeting secondary markets to move volumes.
• 🏪 Importers/Buyers: Take advantage of low prices to build stocks; look for quality differentials as supply gluts may hide quality slip.
• ⏳ Indian Market: Expect continued pressure on domestic prices during the masur dal harvest, especially if rains persist.
• 🌟 Watch for: Weather disruptions, currency volatility, and India’s potential import policy reactions—any of these could break the price cycle.

⏩ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Type / Exchange / Origin	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Forecast Range Next 3 Days (EUR/kg)	Sentiment
Red Football, FOB Ottawa	2.50	2.48 – 2.52	Flat / Weak
Laird Green, FOB Ottawa	1.68	1.65 – 1.70	Soft Bearish
Small Green, FOB Beijing	1.22	1.21 – 1.24	Weak
Small Green (Organic), FOB Beijing	1.30	1.29 – 1.32	Soft Weakness