As the mid-2025 pulse season unfolds, the lentil market faces a dual narrative of renewed production optimism and persistent trade difficulties. This year’s improved crop outlook in Australia, following early June rainfalls, offers much-needed relief to farmers emerging from extended drought. Victoria and South Australia, the principal producing states, are expected to contribute the bulk of a healthy—though slightly reduced—national harvest. Yet, the buoyancy in fields contrasts with guarded sentiment across export markets.
Demand from major South Asian buyers remains soft, pressured by India’s recent imposition of an 11% tariff on lentils, although partial relief through Australia’s quota rebate is helping maintain limited trade flows. Amidst flat to declining prices and high global inventory levels, buyers from Bangladesh and Sri Lanka have lent some near-term support, but overall, new-crop bids remain roughly €100 below spot market levels. Weather, as always, remains a key wildcard for final yields, but the direction of world prices now depends equally on overseas demand recovery and evolving international trade policies. In this environment, industry players must watch both the skies and global news for the next decisive market cue.
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📈 Prices: Latest Lentil Market Snapshot
| Product | Origin | Location | Type | Purity | Organic | Delivery | Current Price (€/kg) | Last Price (€/kg) | Weekly Change | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lentils dried | CN | Beijing | Small, Green | 99.5% | ✅ | FOB | 1.39 | 1.41 | -0.02 | view |
| Lentils dried | CN | Beijing | Small, Green | 99.5% | ❌ | FOB | 1.28 | 1.30 | -0.02 | view |
| Lentils dried | CA | Ottawa | Red football | – | ❌ | FOB | 2.46 | 2.48 | -0.02 | view |
| Lentils dried | CA | Ottawa | Laird, Green | – | ❌ | FOB | 1.63 | 1.64 | -0.01 | view |
| Lentils dried | CA | Ottawa | Eston Green | – | ❌ | FOB | 1.50 | 1.51 | -0.01 | view |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Australia 2025–26: Lentil production forecast at 1.3 million tonnes (down from 1.47 Mt LY), with Victoria and SA providing 1.245 Mt.
- India: Introducing an 11% import tariff since April 1, slowing buyer activity. A rebate of 50% applies to a restricted quarterly quota.
- South Asia: Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are currently active, but demand remains subdued compared to previous years.
- Canada: No major short-term weather disruptions, but seasonal high stocks persist; export shipments slow due to competitive pricing.
- Market Sentiment: Cautiously bearish due to persistent weak export demand and competition from ample global supply.
📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers
- Weather: Early June rains in Australia improve crop prospects; emergence is gradually strengthening after drought.
- Trade Policy: India’s 11% import tariff; limited quota via the Australia-India Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement is supporting modest flows.
- Pricing: New-crop bids trading €100/t under prompt levels, reflecting buyer hesitancy and weak regional demand (especially South Asia).
- Varietal Differentiation: Classification frameworks (led by Grains Australia) aim to improve product value for export markets.
☁️ Weather Outlook
- Australia (Victoria & SA): Recent 20 mm+ rain has lifted grower confidence, but continued follow-up rainfall is critical through June–July for maximum yield recovery. Current conditions support a trajectory towards average yields, but ongoing vigilance against dry spells or frost is needed.
- Canada (Prairie Provinces): Weather is currently benign, though cooler than average; monitoring for July rainfall remains pivotal to pod fill and final yield.
- India & South Asia: Monsoon onset slightly delayed; no severe crop threats reported at present.
🌐 Production & Stock Comparison (Key Trade Players)
| Country | 2024/25 Prod. (Mt) | 2025/26 Outlook (Mt) | Ending Stocks (Mt) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia | 1.47 | 1.3 | ~0.3 (est.) |
| Canada | 2.6 | 2.6* | ~1.0 |
| India | 1.2 | 1.25* | ~0.2 |
| Turkey | 0.3 | 0.3* | minor |
*Preliminary, subject to weather developments
🎯 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Expect weak seasonal pricing for new-crop lentils until demand from South Asia picks up or Indian tariffs change.
- Monitor India quota allocations and policy signals for upside triggers; volume increases are possible if quotas expand or tariffs reduce.
- Watch the weather in Australia through July for late-season risks; any dry spell could tighten the supply outlook and firm prices.
- Consider locking in sales if short-term rallies occur, particularly on weather or policy volatility.
- Supply chain participants: Encourage varietal traceability and quality differentiation for premium export channels.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Exchange/Market | Latest (€/kg) | Trend | Forecast (€/kg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN, Beijing (Small, Green, Organic FOB) | 1.39 | ⬇️ | 1.37–1.39 |
| CA, Ottawa (Red Football FOB) | 2.46 | ⬇️ | 2.44–2.46 |
| AU, Delivered Wimmera packers* | ~0.80* | ⬇️ | 0.78–0.80 |
*Converted from 800 AUD/t at current FX rates
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