Lentils Market Update: Price Recovery Faces Supply Pressures and Weather Uncertainty

The global lentils market is currently navigating a brief price recovery, which is meeting increasing resistance as fresh supplies flood into major trading hubs. Over the past fortnight, lentils—alongside green gram—have rebounded from earlier price slumps driven by speculation over government procurement and subdued demand, especially in the Indian heartlands of Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. However, this recent rally to €78–€88.80 per quintal in key regions is being widely interpreted as a short-lived corrective bounce rather than a sustainable upward trend. As regional harvests intensify, large volumes are now flowing from top producing areas, notably Ranchi and Rajasthan, reinforcing looming supply-side pressure.

The overall market sentiment remains cautious; stockholders are wary of prolonged holding as further price gains appear increasingly unlikely against the backdrop of ample arrivals and still-muted demand from dal mills. With auction markets in Canada and China also witnessing steady activity—and North American prices edging slightly downward—the global trade environment suggests sentiment is tilting towards defensive selling rather than speculative accumulation. Market participants are thus advised to leverage current rates to secure profits, as the consensus is skewing towards stabilization or mild weakness for the near term, especially if weather conditions favor harvest progress or trigger new export availabilities.

📈 Prices

Type	Origin	Location	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price (EUR/kg)	Update Date	Sentiment
Lentils dried, small, green, organic	CN	Beijing	FOB	1.39	1.41	2025-06-17	Neutral-Bearish
Lentils dried, small, green	CN	Beijing	FOB	1.28	1.30	2025-06-17	Neutral-Bearish
Lentils dried, Red football	CA	Ottawa	FOB	2.46	2.48	2025-06-13	Bearish
Lentils dried, Laird Green	CA	Ottawa	FOB	1.63	1.64	2025-06-13	Neutral-Bearish
Lentils dried, Eston Green	CA	Ottawa	FOB	1.50	1.51	2025-06-13	Neutral

🌍 Supply & Demand

• India: Lentil prices in core growing states have rebounded post-procurement uncertainty but face heavy arrivals as the harvest peaks. Demand from dal mills remains sluggish, prompting caution among traders.
• China: Both organic and conventional green lentils see mild easing, with robust availability for FOB Beijing.
• Canada: Exporters in Ottawa continue shipping despite slight price erosion, and global buyers are signaling hesitance given the ample stock flows and upcoming North American crop expectations.
• Speculative sentiment: Risk appetite has diminished, with stockholders actively advised to offload rather than await further rallies.

📊 Fundamentals

• Crop Progress: Indian and Chinese arrivals are gathering pace. Canadian planting is progressing near seasonal norms, though some regions monitor potential delays from sporadic rainfall.
• Inventories: India and Canada both exhibit robust pipeline stocks; availability is not a concern in the near term.
• Demand Outlook: Global processed lentil demand, particularly in India, has not signaled any major upticks, further capping upside price risk.

☁️ Weather Outlook

• India (Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan): Weather is largely favorable for ongoing harvest and post-harvest activities. No significant rain disruptions are forecast in the next week, supporting rapid supply flows.
• Canada (Saskatchewan, Alberta): Short-term forecasts indicate moderate showers, which are positive for seedling development but warrant watch for excess precipitation in pockets, potentially slowing progress.
• China: Stable summer weather fosters uninterrupted export supply flow from northern provinces.

🌐 Production & Stocks (Major Exporters/Importers)

Country	2023/24 Prod. (mt)	2024/25 Est. (mt)	Stocks (mt)	Comments
India	1.35m	1.40m	0.25m	Large harvest, pipeline full, slow demand
Canada	2.78m	2.85m	0.38m	Pre-harvest stocks manageable, export pace steady
China	0.12m	0.13m	~0.02m	Export focus, good quality output
EU	0.20m	0.21m	0.04m	Solid output, mostly for domestic use

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• The temporary price spike in Indian markets likely marks the near-term top; expect corrective pressure as arrivals build.
• Traders with existing stock are advised to sell at current rates to secure profits; further gains are unlikely without a new demand catalyst.
• Monitor weather developments in Canada for potential late disruptions, but near-term global supply risk is limited.
• Demand from key processors (dal mills, export packers) remains weak; any fresh buying is likely opportunistic at lower price tiers.
• Importers: Continue hand-to-mouth buying as price downside risk remains present near-term.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Location	Type	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Forecast (Next 3 days)
Beijing (FOB)	Small Green Organic	1.39	1.36 – 1.39 (weak to stable)
Ottawa (FOB)	Red Football	2.46	2.44 – 2.46 (sideways/soft)
Delhi (Spot)	Green Gram (Moong)	0.83*	0.81 – 0.82 (corrective)

^{*Indicative, converted to EUR for reference; actual lentil price movements comparable in trend.}

Data sourced from most recent spot and FOB market trades; weather forecasts via global agro-meteorological web platforms as of June 17, 2025.