The global lentils market is currently grappling with a pronounced supply glut, particularly for green gram (moong), driven by higher-than-expected harvests in major production regions across India and increased arrivals from China and Canada. India’s Kharif and Rabi season output has surged to an estimated 5.4 million metric tons—up nearly 13% year-over-year—flooding domestic markets in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, and now also Bihar and Jharkhand with abundant, often higher-quality lentils. As a result, prices have fallen sharply, with green gram in Delhi dropping from $97 to as low as $85 per quintal, and even premium lots have struggled to attract buyers.
We see further downward price pressure ahead due to the rapid pace of the ongoing harvest, hot weather accelerating deliveries, and subdued demand for both raw and processed lentils. A liquidity crunch among buyers, an oversupplied pulse milling sector, and competition from cheap seasonal vegetables are all weighing on consumer market participation. Internationally, Canadian lentil prices remain stable but face indirect headwinds from the broader softening trend and ample supply in Asia. Traders and mills are maintaining a cautious tone, and speculative buying remains minimal, with most market activity confined to hand-to-mouth procurement.
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Lentils dried
small, green
99.5%
FOB 1.41 €/kg
(from CN)
Lentils dried
small, green
99.5%
FOB 1.30 €/kg
(from CN)
Lentils dried
Red football
FOB 2.46 €/kg
(from CA)
📈 Prices
| Product | Type | Origin | Location | Purity | Organic | Latest Price (USD/kg) |
Previous Price (USD/kg) |
Sentiment | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lentils dried | Small, green | China | Beijing (FOB) | 99.5% | Yes | $1.41 | $1.43 | Bearish | 2025-06-10 |
| Lentils dried | Small, green | China | Beijing (FOB) | 99.5% | No | $1.30 | $1.32 | Bearish | 2025-06-10 |
| Lentils dried | Red football | Canada | Ottawa (FOB) | – | No | $2.48 | $2.48 | Stable | 2025-06-06 |
| Lentils dried | Laird Green | Canada | Ottawa (FOB) | – | No | $1.64 | $1.64 | Stable | 2025-06-06 |
| Lentils dried | Eston Green | Canada | Ottawa (FOB) | – | No | $1.51 | $1.51 | Stable | 2025-06-06 |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- India: Robust Kharif and Rabi green gram harvests of 5.4 million tons (+13% year-on-year) have replaced recent concerns over shortages with worries about oversupply.
- China: Stable export availability and price declines on both organic and conventional lentils, impacting regional trade flows.
- Canada: Stable production, strong exports but facing subdued demand in key Asian markets as buyers opt to wait out further potential price drops.
- Other Asian Producers: Early and accelerated harvesting in Bihar, Jharkhand, and Karnataka with limited local demand expected to push more lentils into national and global markets.
- Consumer Trends: Lentils face competition from low-priced seasonal vegetables, reducing retail demand in both rural and urban centers.
📊 Fundamentals
- Market Drivers:
- Expanded plantings and favorable weather in India.
- Release of government MSP-held stocks and cessation of purchases due to quality concerns.
- Subdued speculative activity and cautious miller demand due to liquidity constraints.
- Rising global stocks with only stable consumption growth.
- Inventory & Stocks (2024-25):
- India opening stocks: up sharply year-on-year.
- Global ending stocks: forecasted +4% over last year, especially in Asia and some Canadian inventories.
- Speculative Positioning:
- Minimal speculative long positions; most market players remain on the sidelines amid broad-based bearish sentiment.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- India: Unusually hot conditions have sped up lentil harvesting in Rajasthan, Bihar, and Jharkhand, intensifying supply arrivals.
- Canadian Prairies: Moisture-deficit persists, but current lentil stands are stable and acreage is unchanged, offering supply steadiness provided normal weather continues.
- China: No significant weather stress reported in major lentil growing provinces.
🌏 Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2023/24 Output (MMT) | 2024/25 Estimate (MMT) | Y/Y Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 4.8 | 5.4 | +13% |
| Canada | 2.6 | 2.5 | -4% |
| China | 0.4 | 0.42 | +5% |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Bearish Short-Term: Expect further price declines over the next 2-3 weeks as arrivals peak in India and new crop pressure persists in China.
- Procurement should focus on hand-to-mouth buying. Watch for post-harvest dips, which could offer strategic buying opportunities for 2024/25 contracts.
- Exporters: Watch freight and currency volatility. Indian and Chinese supplies are undercutting Canadian offers in some Asian markets.
- Mills: Maintain low inventory and flexibility; secondary processed demand likely to remain sluggish until price floor emerges.
- Speculators: Better to wait for price stabilization signals, as liquidity and fund participation are weak.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
- China (FOB Beijing, small green): $1.28–$1.36/kg – Bearish trend, short-term.
- Canada (FOB Ottawa, Eston Green): $1.49–$1.54/kg – Flat, steady demand from premium buyers only.
- India (Delhi, green gram): $83–$85/quintal (local currency equivalent) – Risk of further declines as arrivals peak.
